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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Thursday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Friday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 75 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Sunday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 75 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion...updated aviation 
National Weather Service St Louis MO 
655 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 


Update... 
issued at 536 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 


Quick update to remove sch probability of precipitation west of Mississippi River as 
visible satellite imagery shows very little cumulus over this region. 
In addition...Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis depicts limited instability at best 
which will only abate further as we go through the evening hours. 


Gosselin 


&& 


Short term...(through late tonight) 
issued at 340 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 


Isolated thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and early this 
evening...especially in vicinity of a weak frontal boundary which is draped across 
the region. Models depict an environment with up to 1000 j/kg of 
cape...very little cinh...less than 15 kts of 0-6 km bulk 
shear...and skinny cape profiles on BUFKIT soundings...therefore the 
expectation is that any isolated convection which develops this afternoon 
should remain fairly weak and dissipate with the loss of daytime 
heating. A few stray rain showers/thunderstorms and rain may work into the far western County Warning Area 
very early tomorrow morning ahead of a shortwave which is moving 
through the plains. Winds will gradually become southeasterly tonight as a 
surface high over the Great Lakes shifts eastward. 


Kanofsky 


Long term...(thursday through next wednesday) 
issued at 340 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 


(thursday through saturday) 


Forecast area to remain in warm sector on Thursday. As for precipitation 
chances will depend on how far east the remnants of an mesoscale convective system over Kansas 
makes it as it drifts east towards central MO by midday Thursday. 
For now have chance probability of precipitation over Central/Northeast MO...with slight 
chances further east. Otherwise...warming trend to continue with 
highs in the middle 80s to around 90. 


Thursday night...low level jet and frontal boundary focus activity 
just to our north over Iowa...not sure how far south southern edge 
may be...so kept slight chance/chance probability of precipitation in our far northern 
counties after 06z Friday. Mild conditions to persist with lows only 
dipping into the upper 60s. 


Models continue to show corfidi vectors pointing to a 
southeasterly/southerly trajectory for any complex that develops to 
our north...so could see dying mesoscale convective system move into forecast area on 
Friday. For now have best chances over far northern portions of 
County Warning Area...with silent slight chance probability of precipitation further south. Highs will be in 
the upper 80s to low 90s. 


Could see a repeat of this Friday night and Saturday...but with 
remnants a bit further east on Saturday...so have silent slight 
chance probability of precipitation during the day on Saturday. Lows Friday night will be in 
the low 70s and highs on Saturday in the low 90s. 


(Saturday night through wednesday) 


Upper level ridge builds in a bit more for the last half of the 
weekend with activity shifting a bit further north. But hot and 
humid conditions to persist with highs on Sunday in the low 90s. 


Then upper level ridge to flatten a bit for the beginning of the 
work week...then next weather system approaches area by Wednesday. 
But confidence is low on how far south and east activity will make 
it so kept silent slight chance probability of precipitation for rest of forecast period for 
portions of the forecast period. Otherwise...highs will remain in 
the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the low 70s. 


Byrd 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening) 
issued at 649 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 


Sprawling surface ridge from the upper Great Lakes into the 
Tennessee Valley will maintain control over our weather as it 
drifts east. Clouds tonight should be limited to high level 
cirrus...with diurnal cumulus developing once again by late Thursday 
morning. East-southeast winds at or below 6 kts expected throughout the night and 
into early Thursday morning. 


Specifics for kstl... 
east fringes of surface ridge will continue light and variable winds 
over the terminal area tonight...with clouds limited to a bit of 
high level cirrus. Fair weather cumulus should once again develop by 
late Thursday morning...with winds becoming southerly 8-10kts by 
midday. 


Truett 


&& 


Lsx watches/warnings/advisories... 
MO...none. 
Illinois...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Weather forecast office lsx