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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 63 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 64 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

Area forecast discussion...updated aviation 
National Weather Service St Louis MO 
1148 PM CDT Monday Jun 17 2013 


Update... 
issued at 928 PM CDT Monday Jun 17 2013 


The coverage of rain/showers has diminished significantly within the 
last hour or so as the short wave trough migrates into southern Illinois/southeast MO. 
The surface outflow boundary has also moved well westward into 
western MO and is no longer a player for any additional 
development with our County Warning Area. Given these trends and the continued 
progession of the shortwave to the east tonight...the threat of 
showers will continue to diminish this evening...and cloud cover will 
decrease gradually as well. T/dew point spreads are quite low in areas 
which experience rainfall...and given the light surface winds...we 
should see some fog development once the clouds clear. I mentioned 
patchy fog in any earlier update but may need to hit the fog a bit 
harder in later updates this evening including the potential for 
some dense fog. 


Glass 


&& 


Short term...(through tonight) 
issued at 220 PM CDT Monday Jun 17 2013 


Not much has changed since the previous afd update. Ongoing thunderstorms and rain will 
continue to increase in coverage and move northward this afternoon. Thunderstorms and rain 
will gradually move to the southeast this evening as the mesoscale convective vortex continues to 
move southeastward. Other than that...only minor changes made to the previous 
forecast. 


Tilly 


Long term...(tuesday through next monday) 
issued at 238 PM CDT Monday Jun 17 2013 


Tuesday and Wednesday... 


Reinforcing cold front from the Great Lakes...in conjunction with a 
shortwave diving southeast from the upper Midwest toward the Ohio 
River valley will probably initiate some convection Tuesday 
afternoon across Illinois. Best chances may remain east of the 
County Warning Area...but cant rule out some isolated storms...so have maintained 
low chance probability of precipitation. Upstream observations in Iowa this afternoon 
suggest highs in the middle 80s for Tuesday. 


Dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures expected Tuesday night 
through Wednesday night as surface ridge of high pressure moves 
southeast across the region. 


Thursday... 


Upper level ridge builds across the plains Wednesday night and 
Thursday....but a shortwave is prognosticated by model guidance to ride up 
and over the ridge toward the County Warning Area. At the same time...a surface warm 
front should be advancing northeast. Have maintained chance probability of precipitation as 
mesoscale convective system could move into the County Warning Area Thursday morning...and/or additional 
storms could fire Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will be dependent 
on precipitation and cloud cover...but potential certainly there for 
highs to bounce back to normal on Thursday. 


Friday through Monday... 


Temperatures to warm above normal during the period as the upper 
level ridge builds across the County Warning Area. Have maintained the dry extended 
forecast as this pattern would suggest only slight chances of 
thunderstorms moving into the northern County Warning Area. 


Cvking 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening) 
issued at 1135 PM CDT Monday Jun 17 2013 


Rain has ended...and VFR cloud cover will continue to thin 
overnight. Given heavy rainfall earlier Monday at 
ksus...kstl...and kcps...and calm winds...some fog might form 
after the clouds clear. Generally went with MVFR visibilities...with IFR 
at ksus and kcps. Otherwise VFR conditions expected on Tuesday as 
another disturbance tracks well to the northeast of all taf sites. 
North winds will increase tomorrow as surface high pressure begins 
to build into the area. 


Specifics for kstl...VFR conditions expected through this taf 
period. Some light fog is possible before sunrise due to calm 
winds...clearing skies and heavy rains earlier on Monday. North 
winds will increase a bit on Tuesday as high pressure starts to 
build in. 


Browning 


&& 


Lsx watches/warnings/advisories... 
MO...none. 
Illinois...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Weather forecast office lsx