marine weather discussion...updated

NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL

540 am EST Sat Nov 07 2009

Updated warnings section

Marine weather discussion for Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea and

southwest north Atlc S of 31n

Gulf of Mexico...

very tight pres gradient across the Gulf due to the pres

between Tropical Depression Ida S of the area and strong high

pres to the N continues to result in strong E winds across

all zones except the far NW portion. Buoy observations are

showing NE-E winds in the range of 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt

over the se and S portions including The Straits of Florida

and waters near the Florida Keys. A Quikscat pass from 2324 UTC

last night showed several wind vectors of 30 kt over the far

se waters S of 25n E of 84w. A ship with caller ID "h3gs" near

23n87w reported NE winds of 37 kt near 0400 UTC this morning.

The Quikscat revealed winds of 25 to 30 kt over over the SW Gulf

in western portion of the Bay of Campeche.

As a result of the duration and large Ely fetch of these

winds...seas have grown up to 13 ft over the central portion of

the middle Gulf. Seas elsewhere are in the range of 8-12 ft with

the exception of the NW and N waters where seas are lower...in

the range of 4-6 ft. With the parent high center N of the area

sliding E into next week and tropical recently upgraded Tropical

Storm Ida over the NW Caribbean Sea between W Cuba and Honduras

and forecast to track NNW towards the far S central Gulf near

the Yucatan Peninsula Mon and NNE across the remainder of the

middle Gulf Mon through Wed...the strong winds are expected

to last through this forecast period allowing for hazardous

marine conditions for just about the entire Gulf. Latest run of

the global models and even the regional NAM have come into some

consensus that low pres of 1010 mb over the Bay of Campeche near

19n95w will begin to lift N on sun as Ida nears the Yucatan

Peninsula. The low then becomes absorb into the circulation of

Ida Mon and Tue. Will lower Gale Warning currently in effect

over the far SW Gulf W and SW of the 1010 mb low as the tight

pres gradient pinched here as weaken enough for winds to

diminish to just below gale force.

SW N Atlc S of 31n and W of 65w

a weakening cold front from 26n65w to 23n72w will wash out

through early Sun morning as the area of strong high pres

mentioned above under Gulf of Mexico builds E across the

northern and central portions of the area. The tightening pres

gradient with the high will bring increasing NE winds to much of

the waters N of about 22n into Sat afternoon. These winds then

veer more to the E Sat through Mon...and ESE late Mon through Wed

W of 75w as the high shifts further E and Ida turns to the NE and

E over the eastern Gulf. Latest wavewatch shows seas building

up to 13 ft E of the Bahamas by Mon...subsiding to 10 ft by Wed.

NE swells will propagate W through Bahama passages Sat through

Mon...with seas building quite rapidly over the Gulf Stream

waters. Seas subside on Tue and Wed. Expect nly swells up to 12

ft to reach as far S as waters near the se Bahamas by Mon

...Then subside to 9 ft on Wed. Nly swells of 8 ft should

impact the waters near Puerto Rico beginning Sun night through

Wed.

Caribbean and tropical N Atlantic W of 55w...

Ida was upgraded to back to a tropical storm storm a short while

ago over the NW Caribbean about 110 nm NE of Honduras with

maximum winds of 35 kt gusts to 45 kt with a motion to the N at

6 kt. Ida is forecast to track towards the Yucatan Channel

reaching near 18n85w by tonight...and across the Yucatan

Channel through late sun. Seas over the NW Caribbean have

subsided since this afternoon...but are expected to build once

again later today through early Mon. Just how high the given sea

state is achieved will heavily depend on how much Ida will be in

tact as it tracks through the NW Caribbean once moving back off

the coast. Light to moderate trades will prevail across the

remainder of the area. Seas over the northern portion of the

tropical N Atlc are expected to build up to 6-9 ft in long

period nly swells beginning late sun through Mon...and possibly

up 10 ft Tue and Wed. NE swells will build seas up to 8 ft

through the Mona Passage Tue and Wed.

Warnings...updated

Atlc...

.None.

Caribbean...

.Amz082...Tropical Storm Warning N of 17n W of 84w...

Gulf of Mexico...

.Gmz084 and gmz086...Tropical Storm Warning expected Sun night

through Wed S of 28n E of 89w...

$$

forecaster Aguirre