marine weather discussion

NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC

1228 PM EST Sat 7 Nov 2009

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant

.Weather for North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.

The latest ascat pass and the latest sfc obs showed W to NW

winds 10 to 20 kt...except E of 67w 15 to 25 kt across the

offshore waters from Baltimore Canyon to the Gulf of

Maine...variable winds 5 to 10 kt from Baltimore Canyon to Cape

Hatteras and N to NE winds 10 to 20 kt from Cape Hatteras to

31n. Seas were 3 to 6 ft over nt2 W of 1000 FM...the W portion

of south of New England and the Gulf of Maine and 6 to 10 ft

elsewhere with the highest 9 to 10 ft E of 67w.

High pres build across the area will move E of the nt1 waters

overnight while remaining across nt2. A weak cold front will

move into the N waters sun stall over the central nt2 waters Sun

night then lift N as a warm front Mon. A low pres center will

move across central Maine Tue night. The low will pull a cold

front off the coast and across the NW waters Tue night and E of

the area Wed. High pres will build into the area following the

front Wed and Thu. The remnants of T.S.Ida are expected to

remain in the Gulf of Mexico well SW of the offshore waters.

The model are in good agreement through Tue then the GFS take

Ida as an extratropical low NE along the cold front move across

the area. The other models keep Ida in the Gulf of Mexico or

nudge it to the SW. This will be the problem of the day with the

GFS diverging from the model consensus. For this package will

not use the GFS for day 4 or 5 but go with the HPC Med range and

the ec. Plan to keep the gale winds for Wed but not extend into

Thu for any zone. The low passing across Maine Tue night will

have strong NW flow which should inc winds to gale Wed from Gulf

of Maine S to Cape Hatteras...then S of Hatteras to 31n the high

ridge into area set up a NE flow across the Gulf Stream. Have

low confdc in low move NE into nt2 per Gem or E across FL but S

of nt2.

For seas have use the previous fcst and ww3 through Tue. Then

with seas building Wed have not made much of a change and for

Thu will slowly diminish. The wave watch is driven by the GFS so

low confdc in guidance aft Wed.

.Warnings/forecast confidence...Warnings are preliminary and are

subject to change. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS

12 planet chat or by telephone.

.Nt1 New England waters...

.Gulf of Maine...gale Wed...low confdc.

.Georges Bank...Gale Wed...low confdc.

.S of New England...Gale Wed...low confdc.

.Nt2 mid Atlc waters...

.Hudson to balt cnyn...gale Wed...low confdc.

.Balt cnyn to Hague line...Gale Wed...low confdc.

.Balt cnyn to Hatteras cnyn...Gale Wed...low confdc.

.Hatteras cnyn to Cape Fear...Gale Wed...low confdc.

.Cape Fear to 31n...Gale Wed...low confdc.

.Forecaster oszajca. Ocean forecast branch.