Provincetown, Massachusetts Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 50°
  • Clear
  • Wind: ENE 10 mph
  • Humidity: 12%
  • Visibility: 10.0 miles
  • Dew Point: -2°
  • Pressure: 29.99 in. 0

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Click a section below for more information.

Next 12 Hours

5  pm
8  pm
11  pm
2  am
5  am
Overcast
Overcast
Overcast
Overcast
Chance of Rain
Chance of Rain
Rain Showers
Rain Showers
Rain Showers
Rain Showers
54°
52°
50°
48°
50°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Friday
  • Mostly Cloudy
  • High: 57 °
  • Low: 48 °
  • Mostly Cloudy
  • Saturday
  • Rain Showers
  • High: 54 °
  • Low: 43 °
  • Rain Showers
  • Sunday
  • Rain Showers
  • High: 50 °
  • Low: 37 °
  • Rain Showers
  • Monday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 52 °
  • Low: 41 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Tuesday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 59 °
  • Low: 54 °
  • Partly Cloudy

Forecast for Provincetown, Massachusetts

Updated: 5:00 PM EDT on October 31, 2014

High Wind Warning in effect from 5 PM EDT Saturday to 4 PM EST Sunday...
  • Friday

    Partly cloudy in the morning, then overcast. High of 57F. Winds from the NE at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Overcast with a chance of rain, then rain showers after midnight. Low of 48F. Breezy. Winds from the NE at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 80%.

  • Saturday

    Overcast with rain showers. High of 54F. Windy. Winds from the NE at 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 90% with rainfall amounts near 0.6 in. possible.

  • Saturday Night

    Overcast with rain showers. Low of 43F. Windy. Winds from the North at 40 to 45 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain 80% with rainfall amounts near 0.8 in. possible.

  • Sunday

    Mostly cloudy with rain showers, then a chance of rain in the afternoon. High of 50F. Windy. Winds from the NNW at 35 to 45 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 70%.

  • Sunday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of rain in the evening, then overcast. Low of 37F. Windy. Winds from the NW at 25 to 35 mph.

  • Monday

    Partly cloudy in the morning, then clear. High of 52F. Windy. Winds from the WNW at 25 to 30 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Clear in the evening, then partly cloudy. Low of 41F. Breezy. Winds from the WNW at 10 to 25 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Partly cloudy. High of 59F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Mostly cloudy. Low of 54F. Breezy. Winds from the SW at 15 to 20 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Mostly cloudy. High of 63F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 20 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Overcast. Fog overnight. Low of 50F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Thursday

    Mostly cloudy. Fog early. High of 63F. Breezy. Winds from the SSW at 15 to 25 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. Fog overnight. Low of 41F. Breezy. Winds from the SW at 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.4 in. possible.

  • Friday

    Clear with a chance of rain. High of 59F. Breezy. Winds from the WSW at 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Friday Night

    Clear. Low of 48F. Windy. Winds from the WNW at 20 to 30 mph.

  • Saturday

    Clear. High of 57F. Breezy. Winds from the WSW at 10 to 30 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 46F. Winds from the WSW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Sunday

    Partly cloudy. High of 59F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 43F. Winds from the West at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Monday

    Clear. High of 55F. Winds from the WNW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Clear. Low of 45F. Winds from the NW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Clear. High of 54F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Clear. Low of 45F. Winds from the West at 5 to 20 mph.

Severe Weather Alert Descriptions

 Coastal Flood Watch  Statement as of 3:29 PM EDT on October 31, 2014


... Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect from Saturday evening
through Sunday morning...

* location... the eastern Massachusetts coast including the north
facing portions of Cape Cod and Nantucket.

* Coastal flooding... minor with isolated pockets of moderate
coastal flooding are possible. The highest risk area appears
to be in the Scituate and Hull areas. Beach erosion is also
expected.

* Timing... during the Saturday evening and early Sunday morning
high tide cycles. While both high tide cycles are a
concern... the latest data suggests the Saturday evening high
tide will pose the greatest risk.

* Impacts... some of the most vulnerable shore roads may be
flooded and impassable for a time during the times of high
tide. Basement flooding is also possible along with beach
erosion.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Watch means that the potential exists for
moderate or major coastal flooding. Moderate coastal flooding
produces flooding of vulnerable shore roads and/or basements due
to the height of storm tide and/or wave action.



All tide heights are relative to mean lower low water.
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Newburyport

   total astro
    tide day/time tide surge waves flood
    /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ category
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
     8.9 31/06 PM 8.9 0.0 1-2 none
     8.8 01/07 am 8.3 0.5 3-5 none
    11.0 01/07 PM 8.7 2.3 12-15 minor
    10.7 02/08 am 8.6 2.1 10-14 minor
     8.7 02/08 PM 8.7 0.0 4-5 none

Gloucester Harbor

   total astro
    tide day/time tide surge waves flood
    /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ category
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
     9.5 31/06 PM 9.5 0.0 2 none
     9.5 01/06 am 9.0 0.5 3-5 none
    11.8 01/07 PM 9.4 2.4 11-14 minor
    11.5 02/08 am 9.4 2.1 11-13 minor
     9.5 02/08 PM 9.5 0.0 5-6 none

Revere

   total astro
    tide day/time tide surge waves flood
    /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ category
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
    10.1 31/06 PM 10.0 0.1 1-2 none
    10.1 01/07 am 9.5 0.6 3-4 none
    12.4 01/07 PM 9.9 2.5 7-9 minor
    12.0 02/08 am 9.8 2.2 7-8 minor
    10.0 02/08 PM 10.0 0.0 4 none

Boston Harbor

   total astro
    tide day/time tide surge waves flood
    /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ category
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
    10.3 31/06 PM 10.2 0.1 1 none
    10.3 01/07 am 9.7 0.6 1-2 none
    12.7 01/07 PM 10.2 2.5 3 minor
    12.3 02/08 am 10.1 2.2 3 minor
    10.3 02/08 PM 10.3 0.0 2-3 none

Scituate

   total astro
    tide day/time tide surge waves flood
    /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ category
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
     9.7 31/06 PM 9.6 0.1 2 none
     9.7 01/07 am 9.1 0.6 3-5 none
    12.1 01/07 PM 9.6 2.5 12-16 minor-MDT
    11.7 02/08 am 9.5 2.2 14-18 minor
     9.7 02/08 PM 9.7 0.0 5-6 none

Sandwich Harbor

   total astro
    tide day/time tide surge waves flood
    /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ category
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
     9.4 31/06 PM 9.3 0.1 1-2 none
     9.4 01/06 am 8.9 0.5 2-3 none
    11.6 01/07 PM 9.3 2.3 7-11 minor
    11.1 02/08 am 9.2 1.9 9-11 minor
     9.4 02/08 PM 9.4 0.0 5 none

Provincetown Harbor

   total astro
    tide day/time tide surge waves flood
    /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ category
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
    10.2 31/06 PM 10.2 0.0 1-2 none
    10.3 01/07 am 9.7 0.6 3-4 none
    12.6 01/07 PM 10.2 2.4 7-11 minor-MDT
    12.2 02/08 am 10.0 2.2 9-11 minor
    10.2 02/08 PM 10.2 0.0 6 none

Chatham - East Coast

   total astro
    tide day/time tide surge waves flood
    /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ category
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
     6.5 31/07 PM 6.4 0.1 2-3 none
     6.4 01/07 am 5.9 0.5 4-6 none
     8.6 01/08 PM 6.3 2.3 13-14 minor
     8.1 02/08 am 6.2 1.9 14-16 minor
     6.3 02/09 PM 6.3 0.0 7-8 none

Chatham - South Coast

   total astro
    tide day/time tide surge waves flood
    /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ category
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
     4.5 31/06 PM 4.4 0.1 1-2 none
     4.5 31/07 PM 4.4 0.1 2 none
     4.6 01/07 am 4.1 0.5 2-3 none
     6.7 01/08 PM 4.4 2.3 5 none
     6.1 02/08 am 4.3 1.8 5 none
     4.4 02/09 PM 4.4 0.0 4 none

Buzzards Bay - Woods Hole

   total astro
    tide day/time tide surge waves flood
    /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ category
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
     2.2 31/03 PM 2.2 0.0 1 none
     2.4 01/04 am 2.0 0.4 1 none
     3.7 01/04 PM 2.2 1.5 2-4 none
     3.0 02/05 am 2.1 0.9 2 none
     2.1 02/05 PM 2.1 0.0 2-3 none
     2.4 03/05 am 2.4 0.0 2 none

Wings Neck

   total astro
    tide day/time tide surge waves flood
    /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ category
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
     4.1 31/04 PM 4.0 0.1 1 none
     4.0 01/04 am 3.7 0.3 1 none
     5.4 01/05 PM 3.9 1.5 2-3 none
     4.8 02/05 am 3.9 0.9 2-3 none
     3.9 02/06 PM 3.9 0.0 2 none
     4.3 03/06 am 4.3 0.0 2 none

Nantucket Harbor

   total astro
    tide day/time tide surge waves flood
    /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ category
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
     3.5 31/07 PM 3.4 0.1 2 none
     3.7 01/07 am 3.2 0.5 3 none
     5.7 01/08 PM 3.4 2.3 5-6 minor
     5.0 02/09 am 3.3 1.7 5 minor
     3.4 02/09 PM 3.4 0.0 4 none

Nantucket East Coast - erosion impacts

   total astro
    tide day/time tide surge waves flood
    /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ category
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
     3.4 31/07 PM 3.3 0.1 2-3 none
     3.6 01/07 am 3.1 0.5 4-5 none
     5.6 01/08 PM 3.3 2.3 9-10 minor
     4.9 02/08 am 3.2 1.7 9-10 none
     3.3 02/09 PM 3.3 0.0 7 none

Nantucket - Madaket area erosion impacts

   total astro
    tide day/time tide surge waves flood
    /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ category
------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
     2.6 31/06 PM 2.5 0.1 2 none
     2.8 01/07 am 2.3 0.5 2-3 none
     4.7 01/08 PM 2.5 2.2 6 none
     4.0 02/08 am 2.4 1.6 5-6 none
     2.5 02/09 PM 2.5 0.0 5-6 none


Frank

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 High Wind Warning  Statement as of 3:50 PM EDT on October 31, 2014


... High Wind Warning in effect from 5 PM EDT Saturday to 4 PM EST
Sunday...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a High Wind
Warning... which is in effect from 5 PM EDT Saturday to 4 PM EST
Sunday. The high wind watch is no longer in effect.

* Location... Cape Cod and the islands.

* Winds... north 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* Timing... winds increase Saturday afternoon and continue
through early Sunday afternoon.

* Impacts... power lines... trees... and tree limbs will likely be
downed by these winds. Fully or partially leaved trees will be
the most susceptible to this damage. Minor structural damage
will be possible.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A High Wind Warning is issued when sustained winds of 40 mph are
expected for at least an hour... with gusts of 58 mph or greater
at any time. Damage to trees... power lines... and property are
possible with wind of this magnitude. Power outages are likely.
Take action now to secure any loose outdoor objects.







Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Great Hills, Truro, MA

Updated: 5:03 PM EDT

Temperature: 50.5 °F Dew Point: 40 °F Humidity: 66% Wind: ENE at 11.4 mph Pressure: 29.89 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Wellfleet Marina, Wellfleet, MA

Updated: 5:09 PM EDT

Temperature: 51.5 °F Dew Point: 43 °F Humidity: 72% Wind: East at 7.0 mph Pressure: 30.00 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Old Wharf Rd, South Wellfleet, Wellfleet, MA

Updated: 5:10 PM EDT

Temperature: 50.7 °F Dew Point: 43 °F Humidity: 75% Wind: ENE at 5.0 mph Pressure: 30.01 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: North Sunken Meadow, Eastham, MA

Updated: 5:06 PM EDT

Temperature: 51.2 °F Dew Point: 44 °F Humidity: 76% Wind: NW at 12.0 mph Pressure: 29.97 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Heron Cottage, Eastham, MA

Updated: 5:10 PM EDT

Temperature: 51.4 °F Dew Point: 43 °F Humidity: 73% Wind: SW at 1.6 mph Pressure: 29.94 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Eastha, MA, Eastham, MA

Updated: 5:05 PM EDT

Temperature: 51.1 °F Dew Point: 43 °F Humidity: 75% Wind: NNE at 3.0 mph Pressure: 29.96 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Muddy Pond, Eastham, MA

Updated: 5:10 PM EDT

Temperature: 51.6 °F Dew Point: 37 °F Humidity: 58% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.00 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Manomet, Plymouth, MA

Updated: 5:10 PM EDT

Temperature: 52.3 °F Dew Point: 51 °F Humidity: 96% Wind: SE at 8.3 mph Pressure: 29.74 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: RobDen, Brewster, MA

Updated: 5:05 PM EDT

Temperature: 51.7 °F Dew Point: 45 °F Humidity: 78% Wind: ENE at 4.0 mph Pressure: 29.95 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: White Horse Beach, Plymouth, MA

Updated: 5:02 PM EDT

Temperature: 51.1 °F Dew Point: 44 °F Humidity: 75% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.78 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Manomet Beach Boulevard, Plymouth, MA

Updated: 5:06 PM EDT

Temperature: 51.4 °F Dew Point: 44 °F Humidity: 75% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.06 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Animal Rescue League of Boston- Brewster Animal Care and Adoption Center, Brewster, MA

Updated: 5:10 PM EDT

Temperature: 51.1 °F Dew Point: 42 °F Humidity: 70% Wind: ENE at 1.3 mph Pressure: 30.01 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: West Brewster, MA, Brewster, MA

Updated: 5:10 PM EDT

Temperature: 51.3 °F Dew Point: 45 °F Humidity: 79% Wind: NE at 3.0 mph Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Scargo Hill Dennis MA, Dennis, MA

Updated: 5:10 PM EDT

Temperature: 50.5 °F Dew Point: 50 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.60 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Misty Knoll, Plymouth, MA

Updated: 5:05 PM EDT

Temperature: 50.9 °F Dew Point: 44 °F Humidity: 77% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.04 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Marshfields Favorite Turnaround, Brant Rock, MA

Updated: 5:10 PM EDT

Temperature: 51.6 °F Dew Point: 45 °F Humidity: 73% Wind: SE at 10.0 mph Pressure: 30.00 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Forge Drive, Plymouth, MA

Updated: 5:06 PM EDT

Temperature: 51.4 °F Dew Point: 43 °F Humidity: 72% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.06 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: ORLEANS, SOUTH ORLEANS, MA

Updated: 5:05 PM EDT

Temperature: 52.9 °F Dew Point: 16 °F Humidity: 23% Wind: North at 2.2 mph Pressure: 30.06 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: WA1FSC - Yarmouth Port, Yarmouth, MA

Updated: 5:10 PM EDT

Temperature: 50.9 °F Dew Point: 44 °F Humidity: 76% Wind: North at 1.1 mph Pressure: 29.96 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: East Harwich DW5051, East Harwich, MA

Updated: 5:10 PM EDT

Temperature: 51.1 °F Dew Point: 45 °F Humidity: 79% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.97 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 
420 PM EDT Friday Oct 31 2014 


Synopsis... 
an intensifying coastal storm will move up the coast Saturday and 
pass offshore Saturday night and early Sunday potentially bringing 
damaging winds and rain to the region. High pressure builds over 
the eastern USA early next week. One or two cold fronts may cross 
southern New England Wednesday through Friday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/... 
strong high pressure in the Great Lakes will combine with low 
pressure moving northeast towards southern New England to result in 
winds beginning to increase overnight. Northeasterly winds will 
pick up to around 15 miles per hour by early Saturday morning. In addition... 
overcast skies will combine with the winds to prevent radiational 
cooling. This will result in low temperatures generally in the 
upper 30s to middle 40s. 


While we expect the low pressure and the attendant rain shield to 
remain south of southern New England...could see a few spotty 
showers off and on through the night particularly south of the Mass 
Pike. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Sunday/... 
***strong to damaging winds are likely with an intensifying coastal 
storm Saturday night and sunday*** 


31/12z models are in fairly good agreement on an intensifying low 
pressure system moving up the coast from North Carolina and passing 
just outside the 40/70 benchmark Saturday night. This is associated 
with a digging trough moving eastward from the Great Lakes and a 
couple of shortwaves rotating around the east side of the trough. 
This combined with a strong high pressure system that will move from 
the northern plains into the Great Lakes region will result in a 
tight pressure gradient across southern New England. 


Wind: this is a fairly high confidence forecast for wind. The tight 
pressure gradient...along with a northeasterly 50 knots low level jet 
bringing much colder air over the relatively warm ocean waters will 
result in strong to damaging wind gusts across much of southern New 
England Saturday night into Sunday. The colder air will allow lapse 
rates to steepen and winds to easily mix down to the surface. 


The most likely location for wind gusts to reach 58 miles per hour or greater 
is across coastal Plymouth County...the cape...and islands where we 
have issued a High Wind Warning. Expect that much of eastern 
Massachusetts and Rhode Island will likely have winds gusting to at 
least 50 miles per hour and that with partially to fully leaved trees... damage 
may be done to trees and power lines. Have kept the high wind watch 
up for these areas and allow the next shift to evaluate another 
round of model data before deciding how to upgrade. The wind in 
these areas is expected to pick up Saturday evening and continue 
through much of Sunday. 


Across the remainder of southern New England /Connecticut...southern 
New Hampshire...and western and central Massachusetts/ expect wind 
gusts to reach up to 45 miles per hour. However...rather than being associated 
with the low level jet...these winds will be more a result of strong 
cold advection into the region on Sunday. Wind advisories will 
likely be needed for these areas but given that winds arent expected 
to increase until Sunday...felt we could wait for another model run. 


Coastal flooding: please see tides/coastal flooding section below 
for more information. 


Rain: moderate confidence. Expecting rainfall amounts of generally 
an inch or less west of Interstate 95. Amounts may be a bit higher 
east of 95 but should still remain under 2 inches. There is a 
possibility that drier air may work its way in at the middle levels and 
cut off precipitation for a period and that would undercut rain 
totals a bit. 


Snow: low confidence. While not a high probability...there is a 
possibility that our rain will end as a brief period of snow Sunday 
morning in some areas. The most likely location for this is 
actually along the Interstate 95 corridor where the cold conveyor 
belt wraps around the low pressure Sunday morning. This may provide 
enough dynamic cooling to result in some wet snowflakes falling. If 
it were able to accumulate at all...it would be a coating to less 
than an inch. There is also a possibility that some snow may fall 
in the higher terrain of the Monadnocks and Worcester Hills. This 
is also a low probability but if it occurs could result in one to 
maybe two inches of accumulation. Again this would only be at the 
higher elevations. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday night through Friday/... 
big picture... 


The long term period starts with a closed low over the northeast USA 
a trough over The Rockies...and a ridge in between. The closed low 
lifts northeast into the Maritimes early in the week. The ridge and 
trough to our west move east...but the overall flow becomes more 
zonal with time with a detached southern stream wave near the 
Mexican border. Heights start the period below normal due to the 
closed low...then climb to normal or a little above normal in the 
zonal flow. Depending on timing...could be cooling back to below 
normal late in week. 


This suggests a cold start to the week but quickly trending back to 
normal middle week...then cooling at end of week. Once the upper flow 
becomes zonal...confidence in the timing of individual waves in the 
flow and their associated surface systems will be reduced. 


The dailies... 


Sunday night-Monday-Tuesday... the axis of the upper low and cold 
pool start Sunday night overhead and move off through the Maritimes 
by Monday. Drier air moves in at all levels Sunday night and remains 
overhead Monday. Fair mixing should reach to around 900 mb. Temperatures 
of zero to -1c at that level translate to maximum surface temperatures in the 
upper 40s and around 50. The high moves off to the east Tuesday 
with milder air moving in especially aloft. Cross sections show 
increasing moisture at middle and high levels...so expect some middle 
and high clouds together with the sun. Temperatures warm up a little but 
mixing will be shallower...950 mb temperatures support maximum temperatures middle 50s. 


Wednesday through Friday... two shortwaves move across the northeast 
and eastern Canada during middle to late week. The first wave lifts 
through Quebec with limited curvature in New England. The second 
wave digs deeper over the Great Lakes and sweeps across New England 
24-36 hours later than the first. As the upper flow is roughly 
zonal...exact timing of the two passages is low confidence at this 
time. 


With the first wave directed through Canada and the upper flow 
remaining southwest...there is a good chance the surface front 
stalls over or near southern New England. The second deeper wave 
turns the upper flow northwest and should push a cold front well 
offshore with colder air then flowing in. We will go with chance 
probability of precipitation north of the Pike late Wednesday/night with the first wave and 
front...then more widespread chance probability of precipitation Thursday with the second 
wave and front. Timing on this will likely change somewhat with 
successive model runs. 


&& 


Aviation /20z Friday through Wednesday/... 
forecaster confidence levels... 


Low...less than 30 percent. 
Moderate...30 to 60 percent. 
High...greater than 60 percent. 


Short term /through Sunday/... 


Through 00z...high confidence. VFR. There are a few locations on 
the cape and islands that are having patchy MVFR ceilings. 


Tonight...moderate confidence. Conditions deteriorate through the 
night to MVFR-IFR from south to north with lowest conditions along 
the coast. Expect scattered showers south of the Mass Pike with 
the greatest chance of steadier rainfall along the South Coast. 


Saturday through Sunday...moderate to high confidence. MVFR/IFR 
conditions continue through 12z Sunday when ceilings start to rise 
from west to east as low pressure pulls away from southern New 
England. Northeasterly winds increase through the period...peaking 
in the 40 to 50 knots range Saturday night into Sunday morning for 
the eastern terminals. Windspeeds will be lower across the western 
terminals but still gusting up to 35 to 45 kts peaking more on 
Sunday. Widespread rain expected through Sunday morning most 
locations and continuing on the East Coast...cape...and islands 
into Sunday afternoon. 


Kbos...high confidence in taf trends. Lower confidence on exact 
timing of onset of rain and higher winds. 


Kbdl...high confidence in taf trends. Lower confidence on exact 
timing of onset of rain and higher winds. 


Outlook...Sunday night through Wednesday...moderate confidence 


Sunday night through Tuesday...VFR. Northwest winds Monday will gust 
25 to 30 knots during the day. 


Wednesday...VFR. Possible brief MVFR ceilings/visibilities in showers late 
in the day and at night. 


&& 


Marine... 
forecaster confidence levels... 


Low...less than 30 percent. 
Moderate...30 to 60 percent. 
High...greater than 60 percent. 


***Dangerous coastal storm for mariners expected this weekend*** 


High confidence through Sunday. Northeasterly winds begin 
increasing this evening reaching 25 kts overnight and steadily 
increasing through Saturday and Saturday night as an intensifying 
low pressure passes southeast of Nantucket. Winds are expected to 
increase to storm force...particularly on the waters east of 
Massachusetts. Have upgraded the storm watch to a Storm Warning on 
those waters. Less confident on the potential for storm force 
winds south of New England. Therefore have kept the storm watch 
with the peak of the winds expected Saturday night into Sunday. 
This will likely need to be upgraded to either a Storm Warning or 
possibly high end gales depending on the track of the low. 


With northeasterly winds gusting to 50 kts...seas will increase 
substantially reaching 15 to 20 feet easily on the eastern coastal 
waters. There is a possibility that they increase to as much as 25 
feet east of Cape Cod. 


Outlook...Sunday night through Wednesday...moderate confidence. 


Sunday night and Monday...gusty northwest winds at gale force early 
Sunday night. Winds then diminish but remain 25 to 30 knots through 
Monday. Seas diminish Sunday night but linger 5 to 10 feet 
through Monday. 


Tuesday...winds and seas will remain below small craft levels. 


Wednesday...seas will remain below 5 feet. Southwest winds will 
increase with frequent gusts 20 to 25 knots. 


&& 


Tides/coastal flooding... 
a coastal Flood Watch continues for the Saturday evening and early 
Sunday morning high tide cycles for the eastern Massachusetts coast...including 
the north facing portion of Cape Cod and Nantucket. This is for the 
potential of minor to isolated pockets of moderate coastal flooding 
possible along with beach erosion. 


Astronomical high tides are rather low Saturday evening and again 
early Sunday morning. However...strong north to northeast wind gusts 
up to 50 knots may result in seas building to around 20 feet over 
the open waters. Still some uncertainty as to how strong the winds 
will get...but the potential is there for a 2 to 2.5 storm surge 
along with significant wave action. Based on the latest data...we 
are most concerned about the Saturday evening high tide cycle. The 
winds appear strongest at that time with a little more of an 
easterly component to the wind. 


The highest risk areas appear to be Hull and Scituate. We also have 
to be concerned with the typical hot spots...such as Salisbury and 
Plum Island which are very susceptible to beach erosion. Finally... 
will also have to keep an eye on Nantucket Harbor...as strong 
northerly winds can cause issues for them. 


&& 


Box watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
Massachusetts...high wind watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning 
for maz005>007-013>018-020. 
High Wind Warning from 5 PM EDT Saturday to 4 PM EST Sunday 
for maz019-021>024. 
Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday 
morning for maz007-015-016-019-022-024. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Rhode Island...high wind watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning 
for riz001>008. 
Marine...storm watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for 
anz232>237-255-256. 
Storm Warning from 6 PM EDT Saturday to 5 PM EST Sunday for 
anz230-231-250-251-254. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...wtb/rlg 
near term...rlg 
short term...rlg 
long term...wtb 
aviation...wtb/rlg 
marine...wtb/rlg 
tides/coastal flooding... 






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