Provincetown, Massachusetts Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 59°
  • Clear
  • Wind: North 14 mph
  • Humidity: 11%
  • Visibility: 5.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 3°
  • Pressure: 29.55 in. 0

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Next 12 Hours

11  am
2  pm
5  pm
8  pm
11  pm
Rain Showers
Rain Showers
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Rain Showers
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Rain Showers
Rain Showers
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59°
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57°
55°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Thursday
  • Rain Showers
  • High: 64 °
  • Low: 54 °
  • Rain Showers
  • Friday
  • Rain Showers
  • High: 57 °
  • Low: 52 °
  • Rain Showers
  • Saturday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 64 °
  • Low: 54 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Sunday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 59 °
  • Low: 50 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Monday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 61 °
  • Low: 54 °
  • Partly Cloudy

Forecast for Provincetown, Massachusetts

Updated: 11:00 AM EDT on October 23, 2014

Flood Watch in effect until 11 am EDT this morning...
  • Thursday

    Overcast with rain showers. Fog early. High of 64F. Windy. Winds from the NE at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.

  • Thursday Night

    Overcast with rain showers. Fog overnight. Low of 54F. Windy. Winds from the North at 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.5 in. possible.

  • Friday

    Overcast with rain showers. High of 57F. Breezy. Winds from the NNW at 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Friday Night

    Overcast in the evening, then mostly cloudy. Low of 52F. Breezy. Winds from the NW at 15 to 20 mph.

  • Saturday

    Partly cloudy. High of 64F. Breezy. Winds from the West at 10 to 20 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Overcast with a chance of rain in the evening, then mostly cloudy. Low of 54F. Breezy. Winds from the WSW at 15 to 25 mph.

  • Sunday

    Partly cloudy in the morning, then clear. High of 59F. Windy. Winds from the West at 25 to 30 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Clear in the evening, then mostly cloudy. Low of 50F. Windy. Winds from the WNW at 25 to 30 mph.

  • Monday

    Partly cloudy. High of 61F. Breezy. Winds from the WNW at 15 to 25 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Clear. Low of 54F. Breezy. Winds from the West at 10 to 20 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Partly cloudy. High of 66F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Mostly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 57F. Breezy. Winds from the SW at 15 to 20 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Partly cloudy. Fog early. High of 61F. Breezy. Winds from the SW at 20 to 25 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Overcast with a chance of rain. Fog overnight. Low of 54F. Breezy. Winds from the SW at 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Thursday

    Overcast with a chance of rain. High of 63F. Winds from the WNW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Thursday Night

    Overcast with a chance of rain. Low of 54F. Winds from the NNW at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20% with rainfall amounts near 0.2 in. possible.

  • Friday

    Overcast with a chance of rain. High of 61F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 0.2 in. possible.

  • Friday Night

    Overcast with a chance of rain. Low of 52F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 50% with rainfall amounts near 0.2 in. possible.

  • Saturday

    Mostly cloudy. High of 61F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 50F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday

    Clear. High of 63F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Clear. Low of 50F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 10 mph.

Severe Weather Alert Descriptions

 Flood Watch / Flood Statement  Statement as of 9:40 am EDT on October 23, 2014


... Flood Watch is cancelled...

The Flood Watch for portions of Massachusetts and southern New
Hampshire has been cancelled.

The heaviest rainfall will shift into western New England by early
this afternoon. Rainfall will gradually diminish through midday...
although a few showers may redevelop during the afternoon.

Flooding is occurring in several locations where flood warnings
and flash flood warnings are in effect. Obey Road closures and do
not drive through flooded roads.




 Public Information Statement  Statement as of 8:47 am EDT on October 23, 2014


The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 22
hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation
is extended to Skywarn spotters... cooperative observers... media and
Highway departments for these reports. This summary is also available
on our home Page at weather.Gov/Boston

********************storm total rainfall********************

Location storm total time/date comments
                     rainfall of
                     /inches/ measurement

Massachusetts

... Barnstable County...
   2 NE Hyannis 1.20 800 am 10/23 Airport

... Bristol County...
   West Mansfield 3.77 814 am 10/23 trained spotter
   Norton 3.66 700 am 10/23 co-op
   Taunton 3.62 700 am 10/23 NWS office
   4 ESE Taunton 2.37 800 am 10/23 Airport
   Acushnet 1.56 632 am 10/23 none

... Essex County...
   5 WNW Beverly 4.95 800 am 10/23 Airport
   Ipswich 3.52 739 am 10/23 trained spotter
   Topsfield 3.35 819 am 10/23 trained spotter
   Swampscott 3.01 652 am 10/23 ham radio
   3 NE Lawrence 2.86 800 am 10/23 Airport
   Lynn 2.22 632 am 10/23 ham radio
   Rockport 2.20 653 am 10/23 ham radio
   Lawrence 2.20 700 am 10/23 co-op
   Newburyport 1.39 700 am 10/23 co-op

... Franklin County...
   Greenfield 1.90 800 am 10/23 co-op
   Sunderland 1.72 700 am 10/23 co-op

... Hampshire County...
   Worthington 1.78 700 am 10/23 co-op
   Amherst 1.59 700 am 10/23 co-op
   Ware 1.25 800 am 10/23 co-op

... Middlesex County...
   Wakefield 3.52 739 am 10/23 trained spotter
   Pepperell 3.26 815 am 10/23 trained spotter
   reading 3.02 634 am 10/23 ham radio
   Groton 3.00 730 am 10/23 none
   Dracut 2.78 816 am 10/23 trained spotter
   Watertown 2.52 658 am 10/23 ham radio
   Tyngsboro 2.50 636 am 10/23 ham radio
   Natick 2.47 248 am 10/23 amateur radio
   Maynard 2.32 800 am 10/23 co-op
   North Chelmsford 2.30 815 am 10/23 ham radio
   Tewksbury 2.25 651 am 10/23 ham radio
   2 WSW Bedford 2.24 800 am 10/23 Airport
   Cambridge 2.24 659 am 10/23 ham radio
   Lowell 2.19 700 am 10/23 co-op
   Westford 2.16 819 am 10/23 ham radio
   Woburn 2.02 701 am 10/23 ham radio

... Norfolk County...
   3 SSW Milton 5.04 800 am 10/23 observatory ASOS
   Norwood 4.05 710 am 10/23 NWS employee
   1 ENE Norwood 3.67 800 am 10/23 Airport
   Stoughton 3.38 627 am 10/23 none
   Foxboro 2.82 700 am 10/23 co-op
   Walpole 2.79 656 am 10/23 ham radio
   Wellesley 2.79 650 am 10/23 ham radio
   Franklin 2.40 722 am 10/23 ham radio
   Sharon 2.22 250 am 10/23 amateur radio

... Plymouth County...
   Norwell 3.39 744 am 10/23 ham radio
   Bridgewater 3.22 800 am 10/23 co-op
   Middleboro 3.05 700 am 10/23 co-op
   Halifax 2.65 800 am 10/23 none
   Marshfield 2.42 715 am 10/23 trained spotter
   West Wareham 2.40 251 am 10/23 amateur radio
   Scituate 2.20 703 am 10/23 ham radio
   Hanover 2.08 250 am 10/23 amateur radio
   4 SW Plymouth 1.75 800 am 10/23 Airport

... Suffolk County...
   1 N East Boston 2.64 800 am 10/23 Logan Airport
   Brighton 2.51 705 am 10/23 ham radio
   Chelsea 2.41 749 am 10/23 ham radio

... Worcester County...
   Milford 2.28 700 am 10/23 co-op
   Ashburnham 2.26 700 am 10/23 co-op
   4 se Fitchburg 2.20 800 am 10/23 Airport
   Upton 2.00 718 am 10/23 none
   Northbridge 1.80 700 am 10/23 co-op
   Leominster 1.52 645 am 10/23 none

New Hampshire

... Cheshire County...
   2 se Jaffrey 2.46 800 am 10/23 Airport
   Keene 1.27 700 am 10/23 co-op

... Hillsborough County...
   Temple 2.92 704 am 10/23 ham radio
   Greenville 2.89 700 am 10/23 co-op
   East Milford 2.43 800 am 10/23 co-op
   Francestown 2.22 700 am 10/23 co-op
   Hudson 2.12 800 am 10/23 co-op

Rhode Island

... Kent County...
   Coventry 1.40 700 am 10/23 co-op
   Greene 1.10 430 am 10/23 trained spotter

... Providence County...
   Woonsocket 1.64 700 am 10/23 media
   East Providence 1.40 637 am 10/23 trained spotter


**********************24 hour rainfall**********************

Location 24 hour time/date comments
                     rainfall of
                     /inches/ measurement

Connecticut

... Hartford County...
   1 ENE North Granby 1.29 730 am 10/23 cocorahs
   2 SSE Berlin 0.82 600 am 10/23 cocorahs
   3 E Southington 0.80 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   3 SSE West Hartford 0.79 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   3 NNW West Hartford 0.78 656 am 10/23 cocorahs

... Tolland County...
   NNW Staffordville 0.55 500 am 10/23 cocorahs

... Windham County...
   1 SW East Killingly 0.72 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   2 SSE north grosveno 0.70 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   2 ENE Dayville 0.67 800 am 10/23 cocorahs

Massachusetts

... Barnstable County...
   1 W Orleans 2.85 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   1 SW Eastham 1.84 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   1 NNW Yarmouth 1.02 800 am 10/23 cocorahs
   2 ESE Brewster 1.00 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   1 ENE North Falmouth 0.93 513 am 10/23 cocorahs
   2 se East Sandwich 0.89 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   2 SSE Yarmouth 0.78 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   1 NW East Falmouth 0.71 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   3 NNW Falmouth 0.68 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   3 E Falmouth 0.59 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   1 NNW Falmouth 0.57 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   1 ESE East Falmouth 0.54 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   3 NE Harwich 0.53 820 am 10/23 cocorahs

... Bristol County...
   2 NNE Norton 3.66 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   3 E Attleboro 2.20 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   1 WSW Dighton 1.82 800 am 10/23 cocorahs
   SSE Somerset 1.43 730 am 10/23 cocorahs
   2 WSW Swansea 1.23 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   3 SSW Dartmouth 0.73 700 am 10/23 cocorahs

... Dukes County...
   1 WSW Vineyard Haven 0.16 700 am 10/23 cocorahs

... Essex County...
   1 E Lawrence 2.82 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   3 NW Beverly 1.78 630 am 10/23 cocorahs
   4 NW Salisbury 1.39 600 am 10/23 cocorahs

... Franklin County...
   1 SW Conway 2.07 800 am 10/23 cocorahs
   2 NNE Shelburne 1.62 600 am 10/23 cocorahs

... Hampden County...
   2 SSW Wilbraham 1.23 800 am 10/23 cocorahs

... Hampshire County...
   2 SW Plainfield 2.35 730 am 10/23 cocorahs
   4 N Huntington 1.94 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   2 SW Westhampton 1.80 740 am 10/23 cocorahs
   NNE Leeds 1.74 730 am 10/23 cocorahs
   1 WSW Williamsburg 1.62 645 am 10/23 cocorahs

... Middlesex County...
   2 NE Wilmington 3.05 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   1 SSE Melrose 2.70 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   1 se Winchester 2.64 735 am 10/23 cocorahs
   1 S Holliston 2.43 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   1 SSE Somerville 2.08 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   1 NNW Cambridge 2.00 800 am 10/23 cocorahs
   1 W Medford 1.95 500 am 10/23 cocorahs
   3 NNE Groton 1.86 435 am 10/23 cocorahs
   ESE Belmont 1.72 740 am 10/23 cocorahs
   1 SW Acton 1.56 600 am 10/23 cocorahs

... Norfolk County...
   1 NW Norwood 4.05 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   2 SW Millis 2.77 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   S Foxborough 2.50 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   1 NE Franklin 2.40 700 am 10/23 cocorahs

... Plymouth County...
   2 WNW east bridgewat 3.66 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   6 E Middleborough 2.75 600 am 10/23 cocorahs
   3 WNW Kingston 2.43 600 am 10/23 cocorahs
   3 E Marshfield 2.42 715 am 10/23 cocorahs

... Suffolk County...
   N Winthrop 2.79 800 am 10/23 cocorahs
   1 W Brighton 2.51 700 am 10/23 cocorahs

... Worcester County...
   1 WSW Berlin 2.34 715 am 10/23 cocorahs
   2 ESE Holden 2.08 800 am 10/23 cocorahs
   2 NNW Milford 1.84 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   2 S Leominster 1.52 645 am 10/23 cocorahs
   1 E Southbridge 0.72 700 am 10/23 cocorahs

New Hampshire

... Cheshire County...
   WNW west chesterfiel 1.79 700 am 10/23 cocorahs

... Hillsborough County...
   3 ENE Hollis 2.45 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   2 se Nashua 1.94 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   4 NNE Amherst 1.67 630 am 10/23 cocorahs
   1 SSW Mont Vernon 1.56 630 am 10/23 cocorahs

Rhode Island

... Kent County...
   2 ESE East Greenwich 1.31 700 am 10/23 cocorahs

... Providence County...
   2 ENE Cumberland 1.87 730 am 10/23 cocorahs
   1 ESE Woonsocket 1.64 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   NE Manville 1.56 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   4 E Cranston 1.21 800 am 10/23 cocorahs
   2 E Cranston 0.96 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   3 se west Glocester 0.73 700 am 10/23 cocorahs

... Washington County...
   4 NNE Richmond 0.99 730 am 10/23 cocorahs
   4 S Hope Valley 0.82 700 am 10/23 cocorahs
   6 W Kingston 0.76 800 am 10/23 cocorahs



Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Great Hills, Truro, MA

Updated: 9:38 AM EDT

Temperature: 60.1 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 89% Wind: ESE at 6.8 mph Pressure: 29.44 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Wellfleet Marina, Wellfleet, MA

Updated: 9:44 AM EDT

Temperature: 59.3 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 92% Wind: North at 11.0 mph Pressure: 29.56 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Old Wharf Rd, South Wellfleet, Wellfleet, MA

Updated: 9:44 AM EDT

Temperature: 57.6 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: ENE at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.58 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: North Sunken Meadow, Eastham, MA

Updated: 9:30 AM EDT

Temperature: 60.2 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 91% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.54 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Heron Cottage, Eastham, MA

Updated: 9:44 AM EDT

Temperature: 59.2 °F Dew Point: 59 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.50 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Eastha, MA, Eastham, MA

Updated: 9:30 AM EDT

Temperature: 58.5 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 95% Wind: NE at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.54 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Manomet, Plymouth, MA

Updated: 9:44 AM EDT

Temperature: 62.6 °F Dew Point: 62 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: ENE at 7.4 mph Pressure: 29.34 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: RobDen, Brewster, MA

Updated: 9:40 AM EDT

Temperature: 58.3 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: ENE at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.53 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: White Horse Beach, Plymouth, MA

Updated: 9:33 AM EDT

Temperature: 55.4 °F Dew Point: 53 °F Humidity: 91% Wind: NNE at 12.5 mph Pressure: 29.39 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Animal Rescue League of Boston- Brewster Animal Care and Adoption Center, Brewster, MA

Updated: 9:44 AM EDT

Temperature: 59.5 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 90% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.59 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Scargo Hill Dennis MA, Dennis, MA

Updated: 9:44 AM EDT

Temperature: 56.5 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.18 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Misty Knoll, Plymouth, MA

Updated: 9:40 AM EDT

Temperature: 56.3 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.63 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Marshfields Favorite Turnaround, Brant Rock, MA

Updated: 9:44 AM EDT

Temperature: 56.1 °F Dew Point: 55 °F Humidity: 94% Wind: North at 16.0 mph Pressure: 29.59 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Forge Drive, Plymouth, MA

Updated: 9:40 AM EDT

Temperature: 56.1 °F Dew Point: 55 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.66 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: ORLEANS, SOUTH ORLEANS, MA

Updated: 9:41 AM EDT

Temperature: 58.6 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.62 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: WA1FSC - Yarmouth Port, Yarmouth, MA

Updated: 9:38 AM EDT

Temperature: 59.0 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 93% Wind: NNW at 2.7 mph Pressure: 29.56 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: East Harwich DW5051, East Harwich, MA

Updated: 9:44 AM EDT

Temperature: 57.8 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.55 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 
732 am EDT Thursday Oct 23 2014 


Synopsis... 
a powerful early season coastal storm will bring strong winds and 
periods of heavy rain in squalls and isolated thunderstorms this 
morning. Rain will become more showery this afternoon along with 
winds not quite as strong. Showers continue to diminish Friday as 
the storm slowly pulls away from New England. Showers possible 
again Saturday evening and overnight as low pressure moves into 
southern Quebec. Dry and seasonably cool weather returns Sunday 
into early next week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
*** a powerful early season coastal storm will continue to bring 
strong winds...heavy rainfall and tidal flooding into Thursday morning *** 


7 am update... 
only minor adjustments to the forecast this morning. Updated 
temperatures/dewpoints to bring them up to current trends but other issues 
remain on track. Will be updating Flood Advisory and flash flood 
warnings. As heavy rain bands continue to pivot across the North 
Shore. Another concern is a band of moderate to heavy rain in 
Franklin County which may yield some minor river flooding. 


1)heavy rain/flood threat... 


Dual pol has been estimating hourly rainfall rates of about an 
inch or so in the rain band over Massachusetts much of the night. Radar may 
be under estimating given the strong low level winds /precip 
drift/. As this warm conveyor belt slowly lifts northward the 
heavy rainfall and flood threat will be focused across northern Massachusetts 
into southern New Hampshire this morning. Thus worst conditions for the 
morning commute will be across this region. 


Elsewhere precipitation will be more showery and not as intense. However 
another potent short wave/pv anomaly was pivoting northward around 
the middle level low and this new warm conveyor belt may clip 
southern Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts later today with additional heavy 
rainfall. Lapse rates not as impressive later today as this 
morning but can/T rule out isolated T-storms later this afternoon 
and evening across southern Rhode Island into southeast Massachusetts. Given the risk 
of additional flooding will leave the Flood Watch as is with the 
greatest risk across northeast Massachusetts and southeast New Hampshire this morning. 




2) strong winds: 


Kbox radar indicates low level jet has weakened somewhat and 
shifted northward. Elevated observing platforms such as Isle of 
Shoals off the New Hampshire coastline confirms this with NE winds continuing 
to gusts over 50 kt! However surface winds have slackened a bit 
over the region as wind trajectory as shifted from NE to north during 
the predawn hours. This is a result of the development of a subtle 
coastal front. This more land trajectory is a more stable than 
over the relatively warmer ocean along with more friction/drag. 
Hence wind speeds have lessened overnight. However given the core 
of the low level jet will be closest to northeast Massachusetts along with 
heavy rain/convection enhancing wind threat from precipitation drag will 
continue the High Wind Warning for Essex County. 


Elsewhere low level jet will remain strong enough to support wind 
speeds approach advisory criteria. While speeds may fall just shy 
of criteria...fully to partial leaved trees will increase the risk 
of down limbs and branches. Hence will continue the Wind Advisory 
until 11 PM this evening when the low level jet is expected to 
weaken. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Friday/... 
tonight... 


Occluded low slowly moves seaward. However lighter comma-head 
rains will likely impact the region much of the night. However the 
flood threat appears to diminish. Gusty northeast winds should 
begin to slacken later in the evening as the low level jet 
weakens. 


Friday... 


Further improvement especially during the afternoon from west to 
east as comma-head exits and moves offshore. Risk for showers will 
be highest in the morning with best chance of drying and late day 
sunshine is across the CT River Valley. 


&& 


Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/... 
* showers possible again Saturday as low pressure moves into Quebec 
* mainly dry and seasonable weather early next week 


Overall the 12z model suite is in fairly good agreement through the 
long term. There are some discrepancies in the mesoscale details but 
otherwise they are in good agreement. After the coastal storm 
currently affecting the region moves away from southern New 
England...the weather starts to dry out and become more seasonable. 
There are a couple of cold fronts expected to move through the 
region and each of these may bring some showers with them. 




Saturday...another upper level trough moves over the northeast with 
low pressure moving through southern Quebec and into the Maritimes. 
The models Don/T show a whole lot of moisture or a big wind shift 
with this front but we could see some showers. The GFS has a 
stronger low level jet than the European model (ecmwf) which could enhance the amount 
of rainfall but there is still much to be seen with this system. 


Sunday through Tuesday...high pressure starts to build into southern 
New England bringing dry and seasonable weather. Temperatures begin 
to climb and may warm to well above normal by Tuesday. 


Wednesday...low pressure moving through the Great Lakes and into 
Quebec may bring a cold front through southern New England. Another 
chance of some showers possible with this front but plenty of 
uncertainty. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Thursday through Monday/... 
forecaster confidence levels... 


Low...less than 30 percent. 
Moderate...30 to 60 percent. 
High...greater than 60 percent. 


Short term /through Thu/... 


Today... 
band of heavy rain with embedded T-storms will slowly lift 
northward. Marginal IFR/MVFR conditions continue. Gusty NE winds 
continue with strongest winds focused across northeast Massachusetts. Some 
VFR cape/islands gradually diminish again later this morning. 


Tonight... 


IFR eastern Massachusetts with MVFR elsewhere. Slow improvement with showers 
becoming less numerous and winds slowly easing. 


Friday... 


MVFR but trending toward VFR late. Scattered showers becoming less 
numerous as the day progresses. North-northwest winds 10-20 knots. 


Kbos...high confidence in taf on trends but lower confidence on 
exact timing of details. 


Kbdl...high confidence in taf on trends but lower confidence on 
exact timing of details. 


Outlook...Friday night through Monday... 


Saturday through Monday...moderate confidence. VFR. Low probability 
of scattered showers Saturday. 


&& 


Marine... 
forecaster confidence levels... 


Low...less than 30 percent. 
Moderate...30 to 60 percent. 
High...greater than 60 percent. 


Short term /through Friday/... 


*** dangerous coastal storm impacts the New England waters *** 


Today... 


Coastal storm south of New England will bring northeast gales and 
dangerous seas to the Massachusetts and Rhode Island waters. 
Strongest winds and largest seas will occur over the northern Massachusetts 
waters into New Hampshire coastal waters. Winds and seas not quite as 
intense this afternoon but nevertheless dangerous sea conditions. 
Heavy rain squalls with embedded T-storms mainly confined to the 
northern Massachusetts waters. 


Tonight... 


Low slowly weakens and moves seaward with winds becoming subgale 
as the night progresses. Also any lingering rain squalls not as 
intense as this morning. 


Friday... 


Slow improvement continues with winds becoming more north-northwest and 
showers becoming less numerous late in the day and at night. 


Outlook...Saturday through Monday... 


Saturday and Sunday...moderate confidence. After a brief lull...seas 
and winds will increase ahead of a cold front. Small craft 
advisories will likely be needed for at least a portion of the 
waters. 


Monday...moderate confidence. Winds and seas diminish as high 
pressure builds over the waters. 


&& 


Tides/coastal flooding... 
last night/S high tide yielded a storm surge of 1.5 feet to 2.0 feet. 
This combined with large wave action resulted in widespread minor 
coastal flooding/inundation from Plymouth County northward. Both 
etss and estofs are about 50% too low with their surge values when 
compared to current observations. Thus have increased guidance by 50 
percent. 


Next high tide is late this morning toward midday. While this 
astro tide is about 0.5 feet higher surge values may be somewhat 
less than last evening. Reason being is that winds have become 
more northerly...limiting the fetch and wave growth somewhat. Also 
the low level onshore jet is expected to weaken somewhat as midday 
approaches. So while this next high tide is about 0.5 feet higher... 
thinking water levels will be similar to last evening/S high tide. 
In addition wave action may be slightly less given winds more 
northerly limiting fetch/wave growth. Hence impacts regarding 
coastal flooding/inundation and erosion should be similar to last 
evening. As a result will not upgrade to a warning and continue 
with a coastal Flood Advisory. Greatest impacts will likely be in 
the Cape Ann area northward to Salisbury including Plum Island. 


&& 


Box watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ctz004. 
Massachusetts...Flood Watch until 11 am EDT this morning for maz005>007- 
013>022-026. 
Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for maz005-006- 
012>021. 
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for 
maz007-019. 
High Wind Warning until 10 am EDT this morning for maz007. 
New Hampshire...Flood Watch until 11 am EDT this morning for nhz012-015. 
Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for nhz012. 
Rhode Island...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for riz001>007. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for 
anz231>234-236-254-255. 
Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for anz230-250-251- 
256. 
Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for anz235-237. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...nocera 
near term...nocera/doody 
short term...nocera 
long term...rlg 
aviation...nocera/doody/rlg 
marine...nocera/rlg 
tides/coastal flooding... 



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