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fxus61 kbtv 211719 
afdbtv 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont 
119 PM EDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will move off the northeast Atlantic coast this afternoon 
and will remain anchored there through Saturday. This will bring 
warm and dry conditions to the forecast area...with above normal 
temperatures expected through the weekend. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
as of 1024 am EDT Thursday...morning fog in the CT valley has 
dissipated. The high pressure center over New York will shift off the 
northeast coast this afternoon with sunny and warm weather 
expected. 850mb temperatures at cwmw +13c at 12z should warm slightly 
this afternoon and allowing maximum temperatures of lower 80s in the valleys 
and upper 70s elsewhere. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday/... 
as of 321 am EDT Thursday...quiet weather will continue for the 
remainder of the short term as high pressure will remain in 
control. Center of the high will drift east of the Atlantic coast 
tonight and remain there through Saturday. This will help develop 
a southerly wind gradient and bring well above normal temperatures 
northward into the forecast area. With 850 temperatures warming to +16c 
on Friday and +15c Saturday expect to see valley temperatures near 90f on 
Friday and middle to upper 80s on Saturday. Other locations will see 
temperatures generally in the 80s both days...warmest on Friday. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... 
as of 321 am EDT Thursday...generally quiet weather will continue 
into the long term with exception of Sunday where we will see a 
cold front passage. Clouds will be on the increase Saturday night 
into Sunday ahead of frontal boundary. Latest GFS and European model (ecmwf) in 
good agreement in regards to timing of precipitation onset which 
doesnt bring anything across the are until after 12z Sunday. At 
this point feel the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will 
be during the afternoon hours where the best heating and instability 
will be. Even though confidence on this feature occurring is 
fairly high...will continue with high chance probability of precipitation in the forecast 
for now. Associated upper trough pushes through the region on 
Monday and cannot rule out a shower or two as it passes 
by...otherwise behind this high pressure returns to the region 
through the remainder of the forecast period with seasonal 
temperatures expected at this time. 


&& 


Aviation /18z Thursday through Monday/... 
through 18z Friday...mid/upper level ridge and associated surface high 
pressure will provide taf sites with VFR through 18z Friday. Visible Sat pic 
and looking out the window shows no clouds...therefore p6sm sky clear. 
However...patchy fog with visible between 1/4sm to 1/2sm will develop between 
06-08z at slk/mpv tonight and continue until 12z Friday. Will mention 
vlifr conditions at slk/mpv. 


18z Friday through Monday...mid/upper level ridge will continue to 
dominate taf sites Friday into Saturday...before a digging trough 
and associated cold front increase the chances for precipitation on Sunday. 
The small ribbon of 850-500mb moisture and brief stripe of 
700-500mb Omega...suggests overall duration of rainfall will only be 
a couple of hours...with some VFR conditions possible in the 
stronger showers. Overall...instability parameters are 
minimal...but given dynamics and timing of frontal passage...a few storms will 
be possible. Otherwise...mid/upper level trough deepens across our County Warning Area 
on Monday...with weak embedded 500 mb vorticity...which may produce a few 
scattered showers through 18z Monday with MVFR conditions. 


&& 


Btv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Vermont...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...Sisson 
near term...Sisson 
short term...lahiff 
long term...lahiff 
aviation...Taber