497 
fxus65 kslc 062030 
afdslc 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah 
230 PM MDT Monday Oct 6 2008 


Synopsis...high pressure will build over the area through Tuesday. 
Next cold system dropping south out of western Canada will move 
into the eastern Great Basin through the latter part of the week 
and remain into the weekend. 


&& 


Discussion...upper ridge continues to settle over the west where 
it will remain into Wednesday morning. Temperatures have rebounded 
today and will get back to near normal values by Tuesday. Only a 
few fair weather cumulus remain across northern Utah and these too 
will dissipate after sunset. 


Zonal flow over the top of the ridge will continue across the 
west as a weak system spins out off the Washington/British Columbia 
coast at this time. This system is at about 135w and 49n and will 
move inland over the next couple of days. This system will slip 
by to the north of the area with little impact for Utah. 


Following on the heels of this trough is yet another stronger and 
colder system that will move onto the Pacific northwest coast 
Thursday. The GFS is a little weaker and a little further east by 
this time and the European model (ecmwf) is a little deeper and farther west. Both 
systems push a cold front into the state on Thursday morning. At 
this point the models begin to diverge. Both models dig the system 
southward on Friday and Saturday with the GFS again being farther 
east and not as potent as the European model (ecmwf). If the European model (ecmwf) proves to be 
the better model...as it did with the last storm...a very cold and 
wet system will descend into the Great Basin. If the GFS wins 
out...then a very cold airmass will still move into the region but 
considerably less precipitation can be expected. Still a bit far 
out to jump on either bandwagon. Have lowered temperatures a bit 
out in the long range but not nearly as much as the models would 
suggest. Also will leave the slow increase in precipitation as it 
is until future forecast runs can be scrutinized. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail throughout the day at the 
slc terminal. Northwest winds will shift to the southeast drainage 
between 03z-04z. 


&& 


Fire weather...a strong inversion will prevail across the region 
through Wednesday. While transport winds are moderately strong over 
southern Utah under this inversion this morning winds will be 
decreasing this afternoon. The clearing index is not expected to 
improve until Wednesday afternoon over the western valleys and not 
until Thursday over the rest of the area. A dry cold front will be 
the reason for this improvement on Thursday. 


&& 


Slc watches/warnings/advisories... 
Utah...none. 
Wyoming...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Public.........Young 
fire weather...struthwolf 
aviation.......hosenfeld 


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