880 
fxus64 kmaf 040535 
afdmaf 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas 
1235 am CDT Friday Jul 4 2008 


Aviation... 
southeasterly winds will prevail for much of the next 24 hours 
across area taf sites. Expect the possibility of MVFR conditions 
at Texas taf sites...and have tempo/d in bkn030 for this 
possibility...otherwise...VFR conditions expected for the next 24 
hours. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 257 PM CDT Thursday Jul 3 2008/ 


Discussion... 
complex upper pattern along with mesoscale features making for a 
difficult forecast today. Convection ongoing due mainly to the 
latter this afternoon with models struggling to keep up. Broad 
upper troughiness encompassed the southern Continental U.S. Between an upper 
ridge over the southwest Continental U.S....and another ridge over the 
Atlantic. Subtle features within this upper trough were dictating 
much of the convection...at least over this forecast area. A 
mesoscale convective vortex associated with former convective 
complex over the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico this morning 
was dropping slowly south into the area. Meanwhile...copious 
amounts of moisture was situated over the area due to persistent 
southeasterly low level flow...along with subtle mesoscale 
circulations within weak and disparate upper flow. All of the above 
have combined...along with an outflow boundary from the Panhandle 
complex...to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over much 
of the area. Thus have continued scattered showers and storms into 
the evening with activity tapering off overnight. The main threats 
from these storms will be heavy rainfall...localized flash flooding 
and cloud to ground lightning strikes. 


Not expecting to see a repeat of today's activity Friday as the 
southwest Continental U.S. Upper ridge nudges slightly eastward ahead of an 
upper trough moving ashore over the Pacific northwest. Think most 
convection will be shunted to the west and south Friday. Models 
were slow to come to grips with extensive moisture through the 
atmospheric column and resultant cooler temperatures. Although this 
trend will continue Friday...think we will warm and dry up over all 
but the southern third or so of the County Warning Area. Fire weather concerns will 
still be minimal as afternoon relative humidity/S over the next several days will 
struggle to drop below 20 percent...even over the higher terrain 
where some model data indicating a modest influx of dry air. 
Temperatures should warm 5 to 10 degrees above normal...but mainly 
over southeast New Mexico or generally over the northwest half of 
the County Warning Area through Sunday. 


Indications thereafter are that an inverted upper trough will try to 
move up the Rio Grande from the Gulf of Mexico and weaken the upper 
ridge over the area. The GFS has been flip flopping around with 
this idea...while the European model (ecmwf) has been the most consistent bringing 
it. Therefore...have tended the forecast toward the more consistent 
European model (ecmwf). This entailed increasing probability of precipitation over the area from Monday 
night through the extended and curbing maximum temperatures... 
particularly over the southeastern half of the County Warning Area. 


&& 


Maf watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 


&& 


$$ 


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