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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
628 am CDT Monday Oct 13 2008 


Aviation.../12z update/ 
satellite imagery shows large area of cloudiness stretching from 
the coast inland across much of the Southern Plains ahead and 
behind a cold front which has moved into the Panhandle. VFR conds 
have prevailed most of the night at the metroplex terminals but 
with a continued moisture influx would expect the trend of 
lowering ceilings to continue the next few hours. Will prevail MVFR 
ceilings for bkn018 across North Texas through 15z with a gradual 
improvement in ceilings through the late morning with heating. VFR 
ceilings expected by afternoon with bkn080 prevailing. MVFR ceilings expected 
again late tonight with approach of front. Lower ceilings possible at 
Waco closer to sunrise on Tuesday. For now...will keep all precipitation 
to the west of the airports but rain chances will be increasing 
into the day Tuesday. 


91/Dunn 


&& 




Previous discussion... /issued 412 am CDT Monday Oct 13 2008/ 
an unsettled weather pattern is expected across North Texas 
through the middle of the week as an upper low ejects eastward 
from The Four Corners region and a strong cold front moves across 
the area. These two features should bring some needed rainfall to 
North Texas...especially Tuesday/Wednesday. The upper level trough 
axis should pass east of the region by Thursday with building 
upper level high pressure expected Friday through Sunday. 


The 08z surface analysis showed a well defined cold front from 
Dalhart to just north of gage Oklahoma to about Hays Kansas. The 
front will continue to make steady progress southward with 2 to 4 
mb pressure rises behind it. We expect the front to move through 
the Panhandle today while loosing a bit of speed due to daytime 
mixing along the leading edge. It should approach a Wichita Falls 
to Sweetwater line by sunset and move a bit further south 
overnight. It is difficult to say how far south the front will 
progress Tuesday but the NAM...GFS...and European model (ecmwf) solutions stall it 
until the upper trough axis moves east Tuesday night/Wednesday 
morning. Of course...the position of the front will determine the 
most likely areas for precipitation. Am not completely sold on the 
fast NAM solution which does not slow the front at all today and 
brings it into western sections of North Texas by this evening. The 
European model (ecmwf) and the GFS both stall the front much further north and west 
than the NAM. For now will go with a blend of the solutions and 
stall the front across the northwest zones tonight/Tuesday and keep 
20 to 30 probability of precipitation today through Tuesday and slightly higher probability of precipitation 
Wednesday. We do not expect any widespread severe weather but locally 
heavy rainfall will be possible as precipitable water values approach 1.9 inches. 
A few Post-frontal showers may linger in the south Thursday but 
all precipitation should end Thursday night. 


The weekend should be dry and quiet nice with a mostly clear 
sky...a light northeast to east wind and near seasonal 
temperatures. 


79 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 84 70 84 66 78 / 20 20 30 30 40 
Waco, Texas 84 69 86 68 84 / 20 20 20 30 40 
Paris, Texas 82 65 83 65 78 / 10 10 30 30 40 
Denton, Texas 83 67 83 63 74 / 20 20 30 30 40 
McKinney, Texas 82 65 81 64 75 / 20 20 30 30 40 
Dallas, Texas 83 69 84 65 78 / 20 20 30 30 40 
Terrell, Texas 84 68 84 67 79 / 10 10 20 30 40 
Corsicana, Texas 84 68 84 69 83 / 10 10 20 30 40 
Temple, Texas 85 69 86 68 83 / 20 20 20 30 40 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$