893 
fxus64 ksjt 040444 
afdsjt 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas 
1144 PM CDT Thursday Jul 3 2008 




Aviation... 
VFR conditions will dominate west central Texas for most of the 
next 24 hours. A few hours before sunrise...plan for stratus to 
again dominate south of Interstate 20. Watch for broken to 
overcast MVFR ceilings with bases around 1500 feet above ground 
level. By late morning...VFR conditions will again return to west 
central Texas. In addition...showers and a few thunderstorms may 
again develop tomorrow afternoon...mainly across the northern 
Edwards Plateau and Northwest Hill country. 




23/Huber 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 1108 PM CDT Thursday Jul 3 2008/ 


Update... 


Continuing to monitor the large area of showers and embedded 
thundershowers over northwest Texas along the stalled frontal boundary. 
Recent radar trends suggest that there is some new development 
over Stonewall County possibly along an organizing cold pool. This 
activity may indeed build southeast into the Big Country over the 
next few hours. Chance probability of precipitation were added for the northern Big Country 
and a slight chance was added to the south and east of there over the 
Big Country...including the Abilene area. No other changes made 
at this time. 


Lacy 


Previous discussion... /issued 1019 PM CDT Thursday Jul 3 2008/ 


Update... 


A few isolated showers and a stronger thundershower have recently 
developed to the west of San Angelo. The thundershower to the west 
of State Highway 163 appears to have developed along the old 
outflow boundary from the earlier activity to the south and east 
of the city that has since dissipated. A pair of weak showers over 
northwest Tom Green County should be only temporary in nature but 
could bring a brief downpour over open country. Will handle this 
with an isolated tstorm 10 pop through 06z...although they will most 
likely be gone by then. The activity to the north along the 
stalled front north of the forecast area has not shown any desire 
to move south into the Big Country. Nevertheless...will maintain a 
small slight chance pop across Haskell and Throckmorton given the close 
proximity of the showers/storms. No other changes made. 


Lacy 


Previous discussion... /issued 714 PM CDT Thursday Jul 3 2008/ 


Update... 


Another update was needed for the 00z to 03z time frame with 
regards to probability of precipitation based again on radar trends. Pretty aggressive band 
of showers with an isolated thundershower or two is marching 
northwest into the Concho Valley so I increased probability of precipitation from slight to 
chance in the San Angelo area through 03z. Probability of precipitation were removed in the 
Northwest Hill country as the activity has since shifted to the 
northwest. Slight chance probability of precipitation remain for the Big Country...although 
radar trends do not look too optimistic for rain in this area. 


Lacy 


Previous discussion... /issued 529 PM CDT Thursday Jul 3 2008/ 


Update... 


Made a quick update to the forecast to increase probability of precipitation into the low 
chance category (30%) for the southern and far western forecast area 
based on latest radar trends. A slight chance will be maintained elsewhere. 
Popcorn showers and thundershowers continue in a moist...tropical- 
like airmass. To the north of the Big Country...a stalled out 
frontal boundary is also focusing shower and thundershower 
activity and some of this may make it into the Big Country over 
the next few hours. Much like last night...most if not all of the 
activity will be gone by around 02z or 03z with the loss of 
daytime heating. 


Lacy 


Previous discussion... /issued 332 PM CDT Thursday Jul 3 2008/ 


Short term... 
300-700 mb ridge is located through The Spine of The Rockies this 
afternoon with the center of the upper high situated over The 
Four Corners area. Todays ongoing afternoon activity is 
associated with a weakness on the southeastern periphery of the 
upper high. A slow moving surface boundary south of Lubbock...per 
latest radar loop...will provide additional focus for late 
afternoon and evening convection. As an upper level trough moves over 
the western states tomorrow...the upper ridge will begin to slide 
east toward the Central Plains with the center of the upper high 
pushing further southeast. With the resulting building of upper 
high pressure over the area...tomorrows convective activity should 
be restricted to our southern tier of counties. 


Long term... 
upper level ridge will be over the Central Plains this weekend 
with resulting dry conditions predominating over central Texas. 
There will be a gradual rise in afternoon highs to the middle 90s 
through middle week. Inverted trough building into south Texas middle 
week will provide the next chance for rainfall for the forecast 
area. With the upper level low remaining in the vicinity...will 
maintain chance of rainfall through the remainder of the 
extended. As the upper level low pulls in clouds and 
rainfall...will also see a slight cooling of afternoon 
temperatures through the end of the extended. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Abilene 70 92 72 93 / 20 10 10 10 
San Angelo 67 92 69 93 / 30 10 10 10 
Junction 70 90 69 90 / 10 20 20 20 


&& 


Sjt watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


23/Huber