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fxus64 kewx 211743 
afdewx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas 
1143 am CST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Aviation... 
area of stratus with MVFR ceilings along and east of kbwd to kcvb to 
Tilden line with IFR ceilings and br/dz/-ra with MVFR visibilities along and 
east of San Saba to kedc to kbaz to kbea line will very slowly 
shift east this afternoon into this evening. It will be east of 
ktpl to k11r to karm line by 05z. Clouds will become few-scattered at 
ksat and kssf around 21z and kaus around 03z. Otherwise, VFR skies 
will prevail. Due to recent rains, areas of low stratus/fog with 
LIFR/vlifr ceilings/visibilities can be expected between 07z and 16z Sunday. 
Surface high will slowly shift east across the area. Northerly winds of 
3 to 9 kts will prevail today, become variable less than 5 kts 
tonight, then southerly at 4 to 10 kts by Sunday afternoon. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 1104 am CST Sat Nov 21 2009/ 


Update... 
back edge of low clouds almost at a standstill late this morning as 
more energy digging on backside of upper low over eastern County Warning Area. Will 
see a slow movement eastward of the back edge of the clouds..and 
don't expect skies to clear over far eastern County Warning Area until this evening. 
Kept a little light rain until afternoon over far eastern County Warning Area until 
noon given radar trends. Also lowered high temperatures for this 
afternoon over anticipated cloud areas. 


Previous discussion... /issued 539 am CST Sat Nov 21 2009/ 


Aviation... 
isolated rain showers/-ra and IFR-MVFR ceilings along and east of the i35 
corridor will drift slightly westward through sunrise and then 
gradually lift and dissipate by middle to VFR conditions by middle to 
late morning. VFR conditions prevailing this afternoon and evening 
as a weak surface ridge builds into the area. Ample soil moisture 
along with a weak pressure gradient and clear skies will cause 
areas of dense fog to form after 06z the will be especially quick 
to form in low lying valleys and river bottoms. Have enough 
confidence to include in the i35 taf sites at this time. The fog 
and associated ceilings will often be LIFR-vlifr at times between 08z 
and 15z. 


Previous discussion... /issued 331 am CST Sat Nov 21 2009/ 


Discussion... 
the upper low is continuing to sweep across the eastern half of 
the state. Sprinkles and a few showers will linger early this 
morning east of a line from Burnet to San Marcos to Hallettsville 
but is expected to be out of the region a few hours after 
daybreak. Otherwise...mostly sunny and mild conditions are 
expected as dry northwesterly flow prevails. Wet soils...clear 
skies and light winds will enable fog development late tonight 
through middle-morning on Sunday. Return flow off the Gulf beginning 
Sunday will lead to a gradual warming trend through Monday night. 
An approaching shortwave trough will allow for another chance of 
rain Monday night through Tuesday. However...the center of the low 
will be well to our north so chances are generally only 20-30 
percent with the higher chances across our southeastern counties 
where moisture depth will be greatest. Dry and seasonable 
conditions are expected behind the front for the latter half of 
the week. Thanksgiving looks to be mostly sunny with morning lows 
near 40 warming into the middle and upper 60s. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Austin Camp Mabry 61 48 70 51 74 / - 0 0 0 - 
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 60 40 68 44 73 / - 0 0 0 - 
New Braunfels Muni Airport 64 42 71 49 75 / - 0 0 0 10 
Burnet Muni Airport 60 42 65 49 72 / 20 0 0 0 - 
del Rio International Airport 72 47 72 54 74 / 0 0 0 0 - 
Georgetown Muni Airport 60 45 67 51 72 / 20 0 0 0 - 
Hondo Muni Airport 72 43 70 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 10 
San Marcos Muni Airport 62 41 71 50 74 / - 0 0 0 - 
La Grange - Fayette regional 61 47 70 49 74 / 20 0 0 0 10 
San Antonio International Airport 70 45 70 52 74 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Stinson Muni Airport 70 46 71 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 10 


&& 


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


02/04