855 
fxus64 ksjt 211721 
afdsjt 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas 
1221 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Discussion... 
see below 


&& 


Aviation... 
expect VFR conditions to prevail across west central terminals 
through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. May see 
a stray shower or storm...much like the isolated one that recently 
developed across San Saba County...across the Junction...Brady... 
and Sonora sites...but chances very small. Have included a mention 
of cumulonimbus but no visibility or ceiling reduction. 


Otherwise...light south and southeast winds should continue...at 
mainly less than 10 knots. Similar to last night...may see a 
little MVFR ceilings move back northwest into the area for a few 
hours around sunrise Friday morning. Have included a mention at 
the kjct site. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 627 am CDT Thursday Aug 21 2008/ 


Discussion... 
see aviations for 12z taf discussion. 


Aviation... 
stratus with IFR ceilings near Kerrville this morning...developing 
toward kjct Junction. Put tempo MVFR ceilings in kjct 12-14z. 
Otherwise VFR across west central Texas in subsidence behind 
exiting upper low...now tracking through Missouri. 


Previous discussion... /issued 346 am CDT Thursday Aug 21 2008/ 


Discussion... 
precipitation came to and end for the County Warning Area today as a slow moving 
upper low that had been over the area has moved into northern 
Arkansas and southern Missouri. Diurnally driven mountain 
convection to our west dissipated before making it into the County Warning Area. 


For today we will see another slightly warmer day with many areas 
making it into the 90s under partly cloudy skies. Will still be a 
bit cooler across the Big Country where evaporative cooling/higher 
humidities from recent rains may slow heating somewhat. A weak 
shortwave trough will swing around what/S left of the upper low to 
our northeast tonight...giving a slight chance for rain showers/thunderstorms and rain along 
our southern counties. Friday looks like another mainly quiet day 
with continued slow heating across the County Warning Area. By Saturday...models 
continue to indicate a shortwave moving north into southern Texas. 
So...have continued to keep probability of precipitation in the forecast for 
Saturday...and have increased probability of precipitation across the Northwest Hill 
country to chance numbers. With plentiful moisture...instability 
will be there...and a weak wave may be all that/S needed to get 
scattered showers and thunderstorms going over The Hill Country. 
Have slightly lowered highs in that area for the expected 
cloudcover and potential precipitation as well. 


During the second half of the weekend and into Monday...weak high 
pressure to the northeast may also push a weak boundary into 
Texas. This along with northwest flow aloft will keep at least a 
slight chance of precipitation in the forecast for most of the County Warning Area. 


Upper level ridge then pushes back to the east into the region 
through the middle of the week. Will keep temperatures near normal 
with no significant chance of precipitation after Monday. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Abilene 91 69 95 72 91 / 10 10 10 10 10 
San Angelo 94 70 95 71 91 / 10 10 10 10 20 
Junction 94 69 91 71 88 / 10 20 10 10 30 


&& 


Sjt watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


07