424 
fxus64 kcrp 110921 
afdcrp 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas 
421 am CDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Short term (today through sunday)...the upper level ridge will 
hold over south Texas through the weekend as the upper low moving 
into the Great Basin this morning moves northeast into the 
northern High Plains late Sunday. Low pressure deepening over 
the southern High Plains in response to the storm system over 
Great Basin will lead to increasing southeasterly low level 
flow and moisture over south Texas. Weak isentropic lift in the 
295-300k layer and steep low level lapse rates will provide a 
slim chance for streamer showers across the coastal waters 
and coastal Bend this morning. Kcrp radar shows isolated showers 
about 80 nm east of Port Mansfield moving northwest. GFS/NAM 
show moisture axis/advection and weak isentropic lift will be 
over the Rio Grande plains by this afternoon remain there tonight 
through Sunday. Will show slight chance probability of precipitation for weak showers 
for western Rio Grande plains tonight into Sunday. Negative 
low level Theta-E advection will move in from the east with 
a decrease in cloud cover on Sunday over the coastal plains. 


&& 


Long term (sunday night through friday)...at the beginning of the 
period, a broad trough will extend across much of the western third 
of the U.S. With upper level high pressure found over the 
southeastern portion of the country. An inverted trough associated 
with the upper high will stretch southwest to northeast across 
central Texas. Surface pressure falls over the Central Plains ahead 
of the trough will lead to an enhanced southerly low level flow over 
south Texas causing additional moisture to be pulled up along the 
Rio Grande Valley bringing slight chances of showers/thunderstorms 
to far western portions of the forecast area Sunday night/Monday. By 
Tuesday, precipitable water values will increase into the 1.75 to 
2.0 inch range from the southeast leading to scattered 
showers/thunderstorms mainly over the eastern third of the forecast 
area in connection with the daily seabreeze. On Wednesday, a cold 
front will move into and then stall over the forecast area. This 
front will combine with abundant moisture already in place across 
the region for scattered showers/thunderstorms across the entire 
forecast area. By Thursday, upper level high pressure looks to 
become centered over the northwest Gulf. A moderately strong 
southerly flow throughout much of the middle and upper levels will 
cause abundant moisture to continue to flow into the area leading to 
the continuation of scattered showers/thunderstorms. Considerable 
cloud cover and the frontal passage on Wednesday will lead to 
noticeably cooler temperatures on both Wednesday and Thursday. The GFS 
indicates that another front will move into south Texas on Friday as 
an upper trough sweeps across Texas. If this scenario pans out, 
scattered precipitation will surely continue into Friday with 
temperatures possibly falling to below normal values. 


&& 


Marine...a moderate east-southeast flow will develop over the 
coastal waters as the pressure gradient strenthens in response 
to the deepening low pressure system over the Southern Plains. 
Will show scec conditions over the bays by this afternoon with 
scec conditions expected over the Gulf waters tonight. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Corpus Christi 88 75 88 73 88 / 20 10 10 10 10 
Victoria 88 70 88 69 89 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Laredo 92 75 91 75 91 / 20 20 20 20 20 
Alice 91 72 90 71 91 / 20 10 10 10 10 
Rockport 87 76 87 75 87 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Cotulla 91 74 90 71 91 / 10 20 20 20 20 
Kingsville 89 74 89 71 89 / 20 10 10 10 10 
Navy corpus 85 76 86 75 87 / 20 10 10 10 10 


&& 


Crp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Tmt/89...short term 
Jr/19...long term