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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la 
843 PM CST Tuesday Dec 2 2008 


Discussion... 
current temperatures ranging from middle 50s East Texas...to middle 40s 
SW Arkansas. High clouds and southeast winds 10-15 miles per hour will keep temperatures from 
falling much over western portions...clearer skies and 5-10 miles per hour 
winds further east will allow a few degree drop...through around 
midnight. Low clouds expected to make a rapid appearance by around midnight.... 
with temperatures leveling off or even rising a couple degrees areawide. 
Low clouds more prevalent over la portions as strong veering in low levels 
to steer advection in the MVFR heights more to the NE. Winds will 
increase into daylight hours as low level jet around 50 kts sets up tonight. 
Made slight temperature adjustment on update...and increased cloud cover./Vii/ 


&& 


Aviation... 
a srly return flow in place for much of the day has now begun to tap 
low level moisture northward across East Texas/western la...with present VFR 
conditions /aside from cirroform clouds ahead of flat upper ridging 
over the Southern Plains/ expected to gradually lower and become MVFR 
late tonight/Wednesday morning. Ceilings between 2-3kft are expected to 
develop/surge northward across East Texas between 8-10z...advancing into southeast 
OK/extreme SW Arkansas/northwest la between 10-13z. Ceilings may lower to 1.5kft by 
sunrise across much of East Texas...with MVFR ceilings persisting through 
early afternoon before becoming a broken VFR cumulus field. 
Meanwhile...expecting broken VFR ceilings currently over southeast Texas near iah/gls 
to expand northeastward into north la/scntrl Arkansas ahead of the MVFR ceilings between 
10-13z...with strong capping inversion maintaining the cumulus field 
areawide before eroding by late afternoon ahead of the next 
shortwave to traverse Texas. Will likely see scattered convection develop 
between 21-24z along/just ahead of the attendant cold front over SW 
Arkansas/NE Texas...before becoming more organized after 3z over scntrl Arkansas/north 
la/deep East Texas...and rapidly traversing east across the region through 
early Thursday. Locally reduced MVFR ceilings/visibilities and wind gusts to 
30kts will be possible in/near convection...with low MVFR/IFR ceilings 
developing ahead of the front by 6z Thursday across north central la ahead 
of the front. Given a 50-55kt southwesterly low level jet expected to be in place 
across the region late tonight...surface winds of 7-12kts will persist 
overnight...with gusts to 20kts possible over East Texas after 8z. Once 
ceilings are able to lift and some mixing commences around middle/late 
morning Wednesday...south-southwest winds will increase 13-18kts...with frequent 
gusts to 20-30kts before diminishing to 10-15kts around 00z 
Thursday...veering northwest behind the frontal passage. /15/ 


&& 




Preliminary point temps/pops... 
shv 47 72 41 56 32 / 0 50 40 0 0 
mlu 44 69 42 51 31 / 0 0 70 0 0 
deq 44 68 30 54 27 / 0 20 0 0 0 
txk 44 69 37 52 31 / 0 40 30 0 0 
eld 43 71 37 52 29 / 0 60 50 0 0 
tyr 55 70 37 57 32 / 0 0 20 0 0 
ggg 52 73 38 57 31 / 0 30 30 0 0 
lfk 55 75 43 61 33 / 0 40 40 0 0 


&& 


Shv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...lake Wind Advisory from 6 am to 6 PM CST Wednesday for the 
following zones: arz059>061-070>073. 


La...Lake Wind Advisory from 6 am to 6 PM CST Wednesday for the 
following zones: laz001>006-010>014-017>022. 


OK...none. 
Texas...Lake Wind Advisory from 6 am to 6 PM CST Wednesday for the 
following zones: 
txz096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. 


&& 


$$