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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
614 am CDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Aviation.../12z update/ 
generally VFR conds to prevail across North Texas through the next 
24 hours. Broken/overcast high clouds will intermittently stream across 
the region with southerly flow prevailing at the surface. 
Increasing low level moisture through tonight will mean more low 
clouds spreading north overnight. For now...will confine the MVFR 
ceilings to Waco after 10z. There could be some tempo MVFR conds as 
far north as the metroplex into Sunday morning. 


91/Dunn 


&& 




Previous discussion... /issued 349 am CDT Sat Oct 11 2008/ 
an upper level low will strengthen over the western U.S. Today 
and bring rain and snow to parts of The Rockies and northern High 
Plains. Texas will remain on the southern periphery of the upper 
trough through Monday and continue to see middle and upper level 
moisture/clouds stream in from the Pacific. The upper system is 
prognosticated to weaken and lift onto the northern plains by early 
Tuesday. However...some energy will cut off from the main trough 
and will remain over the southeastern U.S. Through the middle of 
next week. 


The best rain chances through early next week will be well to the 
north and west of the region where the best dynamics will reside. 
However...low level moisture will interact with a cold front on 
Tuesday and bring a chance of rain and thunderstorms to all of 
North Texas. Some low rain chances will linger behind the front 
Wednesday and Thursday as moisture is lifted over The Wedge of 
cool air at the surface. We do not expect heavy rain or wide 
spread severe weather with this event due to limited instability 
and lack of deep moisture. 


The extended models are out of agreement by the end of the week 
with the GFS indicating a more progressive pattern aloft and a 
secondary cold front stalling north of the region. The European model (ecmwf) 
shows a more amplified pattern with an upper trough developing 
over the Midwest and an associated cold front moving through 
North Texas on Friday. Have decided to keep some slight rain 
chances in the forecast due to the uncertainty in the models. 


Temperatures through early next week should remain a bit above 
seasonal normals with highs in the lower and middle 80s and lows 
generally in the 60s. Expect a 10 to 15 degree cool down Tuesday 
and Tuesday night behind the cold front. Temperatures should warm 
a bit Thursday through Saturday with decreasing rain chances and a 
bit more sun. 


79 


&& 






Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 85 68 85 69 84 / 0 5 5 10 10 
Waco, Texas 86 68 86 69 88 / 0 5 5 10 10 
Paris, Texas 82 62 82 65 82 / 0 5 5 10 10 
Denton, Texas 85 67 85 67 84 / 0 5 5 10 10 
McKinney, Texas 83 64 81 66 83 / 0 5 5 10 10 
Dallas, Texas 84 67 84 68 84 / 0 5 5 10 10 
Terrell, Texas 83 67 84 68 84 / 0 5 5 10 10 
Corsicana, Texas 85 68 84 68 86 / 0 5 5 10 10 
Temple, Texas 88 67 88 67 85 / 0 5 5 10 10 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


/