106 
fxus64 kmaf 061858 
afdmaf 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas 
158 PM CDT Monday Oct 6 2008 


Discussion... 
middle level trough axis that brought precipitation to the area last night has 
moved east with dry northwest middle level flow in its wake. Associated cold front 
is moving through eastern nm and Texas Panhandle. Westerly surface-low level flow 
across western/central pb is helping to warm temperatures up into the l80s today. 
Expect winds will turn to the north around 00z across central pb and move 
on through The Trans Pecos before 12z Tuesday. Even though skies will be 
clear expect there will still be enough of a mslp gradient to keep 
temperatures from bottoming out. MOS guidance from FWC seems too cool per 
wind forecast...but still will undercut metmos kmaf forecast of 55 by a 
several degrees. In wake of front Tuesday PM it will be a pleasant day 
with 850 mb temperatures n17c suggesting high temperatures n80. Wednesday morning will be 
cooler with drier air and lighter winds...will probably go middle-u40s 
across some of the pb and u30s on the MRF plateau. 850 mb temperatures back to 
n20c Wednesday PM with middle level ridge axis overhead so warmer. Middle 
level hghts will fall Thursday as 500 mb westerlies sag farther S and ridge 
axis will be shunted southeastward. Surface low will form in southeast Colorado and 
Lee trough will extend S through eastern nm which will tend to favor some 
amplification of 850 mb thermal ridge...thus continuing warm trend. 
Expect that moisture return will be lagging. Big difference appears in 
models Friday-Monday with dgex/GFS showing earlier arrival of front and 
colder temperatures than European model (ecmwf). According preepd from NCEP hght anomalies 
are unjustified and blend of solutions will be the path of least regret 
attp. Will opt to blend forecast siding slightly toward a cooler mexmos 
siting GFS consistency and cooler 00z NOGAPS. Precipitation has already 
been added to the forecast. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
moderate flooding continues along the Rio Grande from Presidio 
through The Big Bend region. River levels at Presidio have been 
slowly falling or near steady and the international bridge has been 
re-opened (per txdot). The latest river forecasts continue to call 
for nearly steady or a slow decline in river levels over the next 
several days. However...levels should remain in the moderate flood 
categories from Presidio to Rio Grande Village and given the 
continued releases from luis Leon Reservoir...the Flash Flood Watch 
will remain in effect. As noted above forecast becomes complicated late 
weekend/early next as upper low will have a chance to establish 
persistent SW middle/upper flow from the Pacific possibly bringing 
remnants of Norbert into play. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Big Spring Texas 52 78 48 84 / 10 0 0 0 
Carlsbad nm 50 80 47 86 / 0 0 0 0 
Dryden Texas 60 85 55 85 / 10 10 0 0 
Fort Stockton Texas 54 82 51 86 / 10 0 0 0 
Guadalupe Pass Texas 52 73 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 
Hobbs nm 46 78 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 
Marfa Texas 44 76 39 80 / 0 0 0 0 
Midland International Airport Texas 51 78 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 
Odessa Texas 50 79 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 
Wink Texas 52 82 50 88 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Maf watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for the following 
zones... Presidio valley. 




&& 


$$