365 
fxus64 kshv 211115 
afdshv 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la 
515 am CST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Discussion... 


Early this morning the middle and upper level low was indicated to be 
spinning over central Texas this morning and will slowly move east 
crossing the four state region late this afternoon and approaching the 
Tennessee Valley region of north Alabama by early Sunday morning. 
The low will then ride into the back of a ridge of high pressure 
over the northeast sections of the country and become an open wave 
as it moves on to the northeast by Earl Monday. A surface low off the 
middle and Upper Texas will move east northeast across the 
northern Gulf of Mexico ahead of the upper system and across 
northern Florida by early Monday. The four state region will 
continue to see light rain or showers through today...then a 
gradual decrease in rain from west to east overnight with only a 
very small area with possible light rain early Sunday. By 
afternoon Sunday expecting most all the rain to be exiting off to 
the east. High pressure will build into the forecast area which 
will hold into the early start to the work week. Another cold front 
will move through late Monday night into Tuesday returning rain 
chances...but once this system exists to the east we will be 
expecting cooler but drier weather. An upper level ridge of high 
pressure will amplify over the western states with a large surface 
ridge of high pressure building south into the four state region 
keeping a dry pattern into the weekend. Some of the cooler weather 
will be around for the start of Thanksgiving Holiday into Friday. /06/ 


&& 


Aviation... 


Off and on light rain showers will continue over much of the four 
state region this morning. This will continue through at least this 
afternoon for the majority of the taf sites. This activity should 
decrease from west to east this evening...leaving eastern sites by 
the early morning hours Sunday. Ceilings overall have remained above 3 
kft to give prevailing VFR ceilings. Visibilities have generally remained 
between MVFR and VFR flight categories. This is expected to continue 
through the remainder of the overnight hours and into the early 
afternoon. However...can not rule out periods when the ceilings drop to 
around 2-3 kft...especially during the early morning hours. This 
possibility will be covered by tempo groups. Cloud cover is expected 
to begin breaking up from west to east late this evening and into 
Sunday. Otherwise expect winds to be light generally out of the east 
to northeast for the majority of the forecast period. /22/ 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
shv 58 45 64 43 70 / 60 30 10 0 10 
mlu 56 47 63 43 68 / 60 40 20 0 10 
deq 61 41 65 42 67 / 40 20 0 0 10 
txk 60 45 64 42 69 / 50 30 0 0 10 
eld 58 45 64 42 69 / 50 40 10 0 10 
tyr 60 44 67 45 71 / 50 20 0 0 10 
ggg 59 43 65 44 71 / 50 20 0 0 10 
lfk 60 44 67 44 72 / 60 20 0 0 10 


&& 


Shv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...none. 
La...none. 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


06/22