540 
fxus64 klub 210800 
afdlub 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas 
300 am CDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Short term... 
00z upper air analysis shows upper level low still meandering across the 
central Continental U.S. And keeping the forecast area in northerly flow aloft. Strong 
jet is starting to push into the Pacific northwest with one branch diving south 
into the intermountain west. As this starts to move east across the 
Continental U.S....stronger middle and upper level flow will move across the region. 
Saw scattered showers and storms develop across southeast nm late last 
night and NAM is indicating this might possibly happen over our area 
tonight. However...could not see anything upstream that would help 
enhance lift over the region to aid in precipitation development and left 
the forecast dry. Temperatures will also continue to warm up as heights 
start to rise as the upper level low moves east away from the region and 
should see highs today climb back to near 90 on The Caprock and low 
90s off. Low temperatures tonight should also be a bit warmer than in 
previous nights...but kept the western third a few degrees under 
guidance. 


Jordan 


&& 


Long term... 
upper level ridge to the northwest will continue to strengthen and 
appears to propagate east through the next week. As it propagates 
east...winds will shift to the east/southeast...promoting upslope 
and an increase in low level moisture. Should continue to see 
moderate cloud cover as a result. By Sunday morning...a weak cold 
front will move south into the region. Depending on the timing of 
the cold front...the positioning of the upper high and surface winds 
veering to the east/southeast...there may be potential for 
precipitation. Nocturnal convection may also be possible as storms 
could propagate towards the South Plains from the higher New 
Mexico terrain. 


By Tuesday...dryer conditions and temperatures in the lower 90s will 
be underway. Forecast models are hinting at the next upper level low 
to move across the northern Central Plains at the end of next 
week/next weekend. It appears to be a bit more potent...but will 
keep probability of precipitation below mentionable levels at this time. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Friona 91 62 95 65 91 / 10 0 0 10 10 
Tulia 89 65 93 66 92 / 10 0 10 10 10 
Plainview 90 66 93 68 91 / 10 0 10 10 10 
Levelland 91 66 95 68 93 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Lubbock 91 68 94 68 92 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Denver City 92 68 95 68 93 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Brownfield 91 67 94 68 92 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Childress 90 69 94 71 94 / 10 0 10 10 10 
spur 93 71 93 70 94 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Aspermont 94 72 94 72 94 / 10 0 10 10 10 


&& 


Lub watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


14/29