120 
fxus64 klch 130913 
afdlch 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lake Charles la 
413 am CDT Monday Oct 13 2008 


Discussion...satellite imagery currently depicting mostly clear 
skies. Radar mosaic showing closest convection near Grand Isle of 
southeast Louisiana. Synoptic analysis showing strong 500 mb high 
centered over the lower Ohio Valley and positively tilted trough 
from the upper Great Plains into the southwest Continental U.S.. westward 
advancing longitudinal inverted trough extends through the central 
Gulf per water vapor imagery from closed low in the vicinity of 
the Yucatan Peninsula. 


Models in general agreement in advancing Gulf low/trough westward 
into old Mexico/East Texas Tuesday. For toay...subsidence and 
limited moisture ahead of feature should limit convection...and will 
thus carry no more than isolated probability of precipitation in zones/grids. Advancement 
of trough into old Mexico/East Texas Tuesday will be followed by a 
northward expansion of moisture fields particularly over the 
western portion of the forecast area. Hence will trend toward 
higher probability of precipitation west...lowest east. Moisture axis holds in similar 
position through Thursday and will thus continue this pop pattern. 


Frontal passage expected Friday as developing cut-off low over 
southwest Continental U.S. Ejects northeast evolving into an open wave. 
Weekend looking dry and pleasant with eastward passage of feature 
followed by high amplitude ridging advancing into the plains. 
Result will be a deep north to northwest flow through the column. 


&& 


Aviation...patchy low level stratocu will result in a few sites 
over the area dropping down into the MVFR category this morning. 
Will a see a transition into higher clouds...VFR...as the day 
progresses with very limited chances for rain. 


&& 


Marine...an area of low pressure over the central Gulf will 
advance into old Mexico and Texas Tuesday. This system will bring 
strengthening winds and building seas over the northwest Gulf 
through mid-week. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
klch 86 70 85 70 85 / 20 10 20 20 30 
kbpt 85 71 85 69 84 / 20 20 30 20 40 
kaex 83 68 86 66 85 / 20 10 20 20 20 
klft 84 69 85 69 85 / 20 10 20 20 20 


&& 


Lch watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...none. 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Marcotte