761 
fxus64 khgx 211936 
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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas 
230 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Discussion... 
500 mb trough that has been in place across the plains and into Texas 
will gradually transform more into a shear axis from roughly 
Texarkana to The Big Bend area Friday and into the weekend. A couple 
models showing the vorticity currently seen on west/v imagery in north cntl 
Mexico cutting off into a nearly stationary low over The Big Bend 
region this weekend. Closer to southeast Texas...precipitable waters of 1.8-2.1" should 
remain mostly unchanged for several days and along with an uncapped 
atmos with convective temperatures in the 86-90 degree range would 
anticipate continued scattered rain showers/thunderstorms (mostly diurnal in nature) through 
the weekend. May even see some far outer rainbands associated with 
remnants of ts Fay moving in from the east/NE on Sunday if its track 
forecast into MS behaves itself. Did not change much at all in the forecast 
beyond Sunday. Still ample moisture in place along with middle level 
troffiness just west of the area for much of next week. Question is 
how close the weakness/trof/shear axis will be. Also questionable is 
the eventual effects of Fay...will it make it close enough to get 
some subsidence to shut probability of precipitation completely down Monday-Tuesday as GFS/European model (ecmwf) 
suggest? Not confident enough to lower probability of precipitation any further just yet... 
47 


&& 


Marine... 
other than a chance of showers or thunderstorms...winds and seas 
will remain on the low side through the forecast period. Onshore 
winds will become offshore late Saturday or early Sunday as the 
circulation around Tropical Storm Fay reaches across the Gulf Coast. 
However...no other impacts other than wind direction are expected. 40 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
College Station (cll) 74 92 73 92 73 / 30 40 30 40 20 
Houston (iah) 74 90 74 92 74 / 30 40 20 40 20 
Galveston (gls) 79 89 79 89 79 / 30 40 20 30 20 


&& 


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 


&& 


$$