516 
fxus64 kewx 040435 
afdewx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas 
1135 PM CDT Thursday Jul 3 2008 


Aviation...I-35 corridor terminals generally VFR becoming after 
11z MVFR ceilings developing and after 18z clouds lifting to VFR with 
scattered showers and thunderstorms locally lowering ceilings and 
visibilities until around 01z. Kdrt terminal generally VFR clouds becoming 
after 07z MVFR ceilings developing. MVFR ceilings lifting to VFR clouds 
after 16z with scattered showers and thunderstorms after 20z 
locally lowering ceilings and visibilities until 01z. Light and variable to 
southeast winds 5 to 10 kts except gusty in stronger showers and 
storms. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 843 PM CDT Thursday Jul 3 2008/ 


Update...the shower activity has dwindled over the past couple of 
hours across south central Texas. A few isolated showers and 
thunderstorms remain...however. Have lowered the pop's out west 
to just 20 percent for the remainder of the evening hours. 
Otherwise no changes were made and the previous forecast looks good 
and is on track. Updates will be out shortly. 


Previous discussion... /issued 648 PM CDT Thursday Jul 3 2008/ 


Aviation...I-35 corridor terminals generally VFR with isolated 
dissipating showers until sunset. After 11z MVFR ceilings developing 
becoming VFR clouds after 18z with scattered showers and thunderstorms 
locally lowering ceilings and visibilities. Kdrt terminal generally VFR 
clouds with isolated showers until sunset becoming after 07z MVFR 
ceilings developing lifting to VFR clouds after 16z with scattered 
showers and thunderstorms after 20z locally lowering ceilings and 
visibilities. Southeast winds 5 to 10 kts except variable and gusty in 
stronger showers and thunderstorms. 


Previous discussion... /issued 356 PM CDT Thursday Jul 3 2008/ 


Discussion... 
weakness in the 700 to 250 hpa height field continues this afternoon 
and this trend is expected to continue through Friday...as the light 
winds aloft through Friday are not expected to carry the weak trough 
away Friday. Ongoing showers late this afternoon are expected to 
decrease from the east during the evening hours. A good chance of 
showers is expected to return on Friday...with Summer daytime 
showers and thunderstorms...then decreasing again in the evening 
Friday. 


On Saturday through Monday...a weak 700 to 300 hpa high is still 
forecast to develop just north of the area...in response to the 
patterns in the stronger westerlies to the north. This ridge aloft 
will be rather weak...and a weakness in the height field could still 
remain over the south to west part of the area Saturday and 
Sunday. Showed decreasing rain chances for Saturday through 
Monday morning from the north. By Monday afternoon through 
Tuesday...a gradual change to a weakness in the height field from 
700 to 250 hpa is expected to develop again. As a result showed 
increasing rain chances again from the east and southeast Monday 
afternoon...then increased rain chances slightly on Tuesday from 
Summer daytime showers again. By Wednesday and Thursday of next 
week...The Heights aloft are forecast to decrease more...and the 
pattern shifts back to a weak 700 to 250 hpa trough over or near the 
area. This will cause a good chance for showers on Wednesday and 
Thursday of next week. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Austin Camp Mabry 72 94 72 95 73 / 20 30 20 20 10 
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 68 93 69 95 71 / 20 30 20 20 10 
del Rio International Airport 72 90 73 92 73 / 40 50 40 30 20 
San Antonio International Airport 72 90 72 92 73 / 20 50 30 20 10 


&& 


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


03/02