825 
fxus64 kewx 070507 
afdewx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas 
1207 am CDT Tuesday Oct 7 2008 


Aviation... 
bottom edge of a squall line is being interfered with by a sea 
breeze so is temperorarily breaking up into scattered cells over 
a broader area over the eastern Hill Country. This could result 
in a longer impact on the aus terminal and could result in less 
focusing and coverage for the Sat metropolitan area terminals. Cold front 
is making good progress toward the drt area, and looks to pass 
through drt between 9 and 10z and into aus by 11z and Sat by 12z. 
By 14z, nearly all areas should see VFR conditions to carry 
through the end of the taf period. Some extra winds were added for 
the middle of the day due to increasing MOS wind trends 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 848 PM CDT Monday Oct 6 2008/ 


Update...probabilities were reconfigured from now until midnight as 
a subsident southwest to west flow aloft was limiting developments. 
New radiosonde observation data from kdrt and kcrp reinforce idea and point to 
several inversions in the low and middle levels as temperatures had 
increased and moisture decreased in the zone of south-westerlies 
aloft. After midnight..probabilities still on track as latest RUC 
shows last disturbance pushing trough through eastern County Warning Area into 
Richer moisture field. This will destabilize upper levels at the 
same time lowering subsident southwest wind influence. 
Thus..activity should form again..mainly east of the I-35 corridor 
late tonight. 


Previous discussion... /issued 302 PM CDT Monday Oct 6 2008/ 


Discussion... 
this afternoon isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms 
were developing across our northeast counties in the warm and 
unstable airmass...in advance of the dry line and cold front. 
The pre-frontal trough/dry line is east of k6r6 and ksjt with the 
cold front having passed through kink and klbb. The best low level 
convergence will occur along and ahead of the frontal boundary along 
and east of Highway 281 where the best low level moisture axis is 
located. Thus the best chance for measurable rainfall associated 
with the frontal passage will be mainly east of Highway 281. The frontal 
boundary will move across our County warning forecast area overnight and will clear our 
southeast counties Tuesday morning. There will be some Post- 
frontal showers lingering across our southeast counties Tuesday 
afternoon as the cold front clears the middle Texas coast. 


High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate the weather 
across south central Texas Wednesday and Thursday. This pattern 
will result in cool mornings and warm afternoons. 


Gulf moisture will begin to return to the County warning forecast area on Friday. Atmospheric 
moisture levels will increase Saturday through Monday in advance of 
the next upper level trough and associated cold front. Thus a wet 
weekend is expected. At this time the next cold front is expected to move 
across south central Texas Monday night of next week. The GFS has 
been inconsistent with the timing of this front so went with the 
HPC day 7 graphic for frontal timing. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Austin Camp Mabry 67 86 59 88 57 / 60 10 0 0 0 
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 66 86 54 86 52 / 60 10 0 0 0 
del Rio International Airport 68 88 59 87 58 / 10 - 0 0 0 
San Antonio International Airport 68 86 58 88 54 / 30 10 0 0 0 


&& 


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


02/18