727 
fxus64 kepz 022052 
afdepz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm 
152 PM MST Tuesday Dec 2 2008 


Synopsis... 
an upper disturbance will result in breezy conditions late this 
afternoon and this evening. High pressure will bring dry weather 
along with mild days...cool nights and mostly light winds to 
southern New Mexico and western Texas Wednesday through the 
weekend. An upper level low pressure system will cause a few rain 
showers early next week. 


&& 


Discussion... 
forecast confidence rather high through Saturday with model 
differences and inconsistencies making outlook very uncertain next 
week. For this evening upper wave will move across the County Warning Area while 
rather strong Lee surface trough extends through southeast New 
Mexico. As a result will forecast breezy conditions this evening 
as gradients remain rather tight through the middle and lower 
troposphere. Stronger wave moves to the southeast across New 
Mexico and West Texas Wednesday with an associated cold front 
dropping southward through the area during the morning and early 
afternoon. Front rather weak however and should lower temperatures only 
around 10 degrees which is still a little above normal. In 
addition continued deep landward trajectories indicate weather 
will remain dry tomorrow. 


However another upper wave with a cold front will move slowly 
southward into central rockies and Great Basin Thursday with flow 
initially becoming more zonal aloft. Thereafter uncertainties 
increase as GFS and WRF develop closed low off of Baja California by late 
Friday with southern Branch Ridge developing over southern 
rockies. Expect ridge to sustain dry and seasonably mild weather 
into early Sunday. But European model (ecmwf) phases Baja California low with another West 
Coast trough Monday causing system to move across the County Warning Area 
and bring cooler weather with a few showers. In contrast GFS 
keeps low spinning off Baja California into Wednesday but with southerly flow 
to its east transporting increasing moisture over the southern 
rockies. Given these model disagreements this far ahead will keep 
slight chances of Rain/Mountain snows Monday and Monday night but 
will hold off from mentioning any precipitation on Tuesday. 


&& 


Aviation...valid 03/0000z-04/0000z... 
a fast moving trough of low pressure will pass north of the region 
overnight. Only a few high clouds with this system but surface 
winds will continue to be around 25015g25kt with mountain tops winds 270 
35-40kt with occasional MDT turbulence over and near mountains esply east slopes 
through this evening. 


&& 


Fire weather... 


A trough of low pressure will rapidly move through northern portions 
of the state tonight. No moisture is expected from this system. 
Surface winds will be breezy to windy this afternoon and early 
evening. Increased downsloping winds along east slopes will help 
enhance warming and drying. Although most of the area is not 
showing high fire danger...fuels in the sacrmento mountains are 
becoming increasingly dry. Relative humidity and wind levels will at times meet 
critical values for this afternoon and early evening for a red flag 
warning to remain in effect for fire weather zone 113 (southern 
Sacramento mountains) to around 7 PM. Dry conditions will persist 
into the weekend. Winds are expected to remain below red flag 
criteria the remainder of the week. 


&& 




Preliminary point temps/pops... 
El Paso 47 67 38 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Sierra Blanca Texas 42 65 33 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Las Cruces 43 66 35 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Alamogordo 40 63 31 63 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Cloudcroft 34 47 22 46 25 / 0 10 0 0 0 
Truth or Consequences 38 63 31 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Silver City 36 58 30 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Deming 36 66 33 64 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Lordsburg 41 67 34 64 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Epz watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...red flag warning until 7 PM MST this evening for nmz113. 


Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


05 rogash/lundeen