637 
fxus64 kfwd 040443 
afdfwd 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
1143 PM CDT Thursday Jul 3 2008 


Aviation... 
expect an increase in middle and high clouds through the taf period 
as front approaches the Red River. Winds will veer to the south-southwest and 
then back to the south-southeast tomorrow evening. Sh/13 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 935 PM CDT Thursday Jul 3 2008/ 


Update... 
forecast looks on track and will update to remove isolated 
convection. Other minor adjustments to winds/sky/dewpoint and 
hourly temperature have been made to align with latest trends. 


Tr.92 


Previous discussion... /issued 553 PM CDT Thursday Jul 3 2008/ 


Aviation... 
south-southeast winds of less than 10 kts will continue through the evening. 
As surface trough approaches after midnight...winds will become 
south-southwest. Models stall front out to our north. Precipitation chances will be 
higher tomorrow with increasing moisture but are still too low to 
include in the tafs. VFR ceilings are expected around 8k feet. Sh/13 


Previous discussion... /issued 335 PM CDT Thursday Jul 3 2008/ 


Discussion...persistence forecast will be the rule for the next 
several days as there appears to be little in the way of 
significant features to bring better rain chances to North Texas. 
There is a weak frontal boundary located across the Southern 
Plains this afternoon which is helping to focus a few areas of 
showers and thunderstorms. As of 3 PM...the boundary was located 
across south central Oklahoma into the southern portions of the 
Texas Panhandle. Radar indicates some scattered convection along 
the boundary...but most of this will remain out of our County Warning Area through 
this evening. Weak boundary will continue to slide south and 
should be near or just south of the Red River late tonight. Will 
have some 10 probability of precipitation and mention isolated thunderstorms across the 
northwest counties and the far southern counties this evening. 


Other than some isolated showers and thunderstorms along old 
boundary tomorrow...mainly across the northern and eastern 
counties...not expecting much in the way of rain across North 
Texas for the Fourth of July celebrations. Better chances for rain 
and thunderstorms appears to be toward the middle and latter parts 
of next week when a plume of deeper tropical moisture moves across 
the western Gulf and into central and south Texas. For now...will 
keep probability of precipitation at 20 percent and confine them to Wednesday/Thursday timeframe but 
these may need to be raised over the next few days. Not much 
departure from MOS temperatures...but will continue to make local 
adjustments upward to afternoon highs in the urban areas. MOS has been 
running a few degrees too cool at dfw/Dal. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 77 98 77 98 / 10 10 10 10 
Waco, Texas 72 97 72 97 / 10 10 10 10 
Paris, Texas 72 91 71 91 / 10 10 10 10 
Denton, Texas 72 95 74 95 / 10 10 10 10 
McKinney, Texas 72 95 73 95 / 10 10 10 10 
Dallas, Texas 77 97 77 96 / 10 10 10 10 
Terrell, Texas 73 95 72 94 / 10 10 10 10 
Corsicana, Texas 73 96 72 95 / 10 10 10 10 
Temple, Texas 71 96 72 95 / 10 10 10 10 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


92/13