742 
fxus64 kama 111140 aaa 
afdama 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas 
640 am CDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Aviation... 
showers seen on kama 88d moving northeastward at about 45 knots...and will likely 
impact dht this morning. Cold front has moved into western OK Panhandle...and 
will possibly cause variability to surface winds at dht and Guy this 
morning. Instability expected to increase during day with scattered thunderstorms 
developing. Improving dynamics and strengthening low-level jet tonight 
expected to result in greater coverage of thunderstorms. Generally VFR 
conditions expected today...with MVFR ceilings developing this evening and tonight. 


Cockrell 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 435 am CDT Sat Oct 11 2008/ 


Discussion... 
active weather to return to the panhandles this weekend into the 
early part of next week. Main forecast concerns especially in the 
short term this morning continue to revolve around precipitation chances... 
heavy rainfall...temperatures...and possibly some strong to severe 
storms across the western Texas and Oklahoma panhandles today. 


Well advertised upper level trough will continue to approach the 
panhandles today. In addition...the remnants of Hurricane Norbert 
will get absorbed by the trough by this evening...spreading 
additional moisture across the region. Precipitable water values 
will steadily increase throughout the day...approaching 1.5 inches 
by 18z...and climbing to around 1.75 inches by tonight. This will 
set the stage for a very active short term over the panhandles....as 
numerous chances of showers and thunderstorms will persist through 
early next week. 


For today and tonight...expect clouds to be on the increase as the 
day progresses. Showers and thunderstorms should develop by the middle 
morning hours and spread to the northeast throughout the day. 
Temperatures will be very tricky today...as cloud cover and 
associated rainfall should keep temperatures from climbing too much. Went 
right at guidance or a few degrees below...with lower 70s in the 
western panhandles to upper 70s in eastern zones. Still unsure how 
the severe potential will play out this afternoon as extensive cloud 
cover and rainfall should hold instability in check. With pretty 
good dynamics in place with upper trough...its quite possible a few 
storms could be strong to severe as they cross into the western 
Texas and Oklahoma panhandles this afternoon and evening. 


Precipitation chances will continue into Sunday as the upper trough slowly 
progresses to the east. Temperatures once again will be difficult 
with cloud cover and rainfall across the area...so continued the 
trend of undercutting guidance with lower 70s across much of the 
region. Retained previous forecast on timing of the cold front as it 
pushes through panhandles. Brought the wind shift into the area 
Sunday night into Monday morning. 00z GFS continues to insist the 
front will push through sometime late Monday night into Tuesday 
morning...but will disregard this solution for now. 


Active weather will continue into the early part of next week, GFS 
continues to eject the system a bit quicker than the European 
solution. Also...the Euro breaks off a piece of energy and hangs it 
back to the west as the main trough lifts northeast. With that in 
mind and given the run to run consistency of the Euro...prolonged pop 
chances through the Tuesday night period before shutting off probability of precipitation. 


Will opt against a Flash Flood Watch at this time and will continue 
the heavy rain wording in the grids and the Special Weather Statement regarding heavy 
rainfall. Exact timing of when the heaviest rainfall will occur is 
still in question...and then the GFS/European disagreeing on lagging 
piece of energy and how long probability of precipitation will persist. Flash flood or flood 
watches may become necessary in subsequent forecasts...especially 
considering the heavy rainfall that parts of the eastern Texas and 
Oklahoma panhandles received last week. 


Did not make any changes to the very extended part of the forecast. 
Lower to middle 70 should return the region...with a dry forecast 
beginning Wednesday. 


Tab 


Fire weather... 
fire weather concerns will remain low through Wednesday. The chance 
of wetting rains and minimum relative humidity values above 25 
percent will preclude fire weather conditions. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Amarillo Texas 73 58 71 57 62 / 60 60 60 60 60 
Beaver OK 76 61 73 53 60 / 40 60 60 60 60 
Boise City OK 70 55 69 46 56 / 70 60 40 50 40 
Borger Texas 74 63 72 57 61 / 60 60 60 60 60 
Boys Ranch Texas 74 59 71 54 60 / 70 60 50 60 50 
canyon Texas 74 58 70 56 64 / 60 60 50 60 60 
Clarendon Texas 76 61 74 61 69 / 50 50 60 60 70 
Dalhart Texas 71 57 69 50 57 / 70 60 50 50 40 
Guymon OK 73 60 70 51 58 / 60 60 50 60 50 
Hereford Texas 73 57 70 56 64 / 70 60 50 60 60 
Lipscomb Texas 78 62 73 57 64 / 40 50 60 60 70 
Pampa Texas 76 60 72 58 63 / 50 60 60 60 70 
Shamrock Texas 77 63 74 62 70 / 40 50 60 60 70 
Wellington Texas 77 63 75 62 71 / 40 50 60 60 70 


&& 


Ama watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
OK...none. 


&& 


$$ 


03/10