662 
fxus64 kbro 070043 
afdbro 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Brownsville Texas 
743 PM CDT Monday Oct 6 2008 


Discussion...ruc80 500mb height analysis indicated a trough 
across the central and Southern Plains this evening. Msas surface 
analysis indicated a weak cold front from North Texas extending 
back to portions of West Texas. Satellite and radar images indicate 
convection continue to develop across northeast Texas. Warmer 850mb 
temperatures across south Texas appear to keep the atmosphere capped 
across the Rio Grande plains and the lower Rio Grande Valley. 18z 
NAM forecasts convection developing across central Texas tonight and 
moving towards southeast Texas Tuesday morning. The frontal boundary 
is expected to reach the coastal Bend Tuesday afternoon and showers 
and thunderstorms may develop as the front moves into the County Warning Area. 
Will likely remove probability of precipitation tonight and lower probability of precipitation Tuesday morning until 
the 850mb front erodes the cap across deep south Texas late Tuesday 
morning or early Tuesday afternoon. 
&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions with moderate southeasterly winds and 
partly cloudy skies are occurring at the regional airports. 
Cloudiness and the chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms 
will increase over the County Warning Area on Tuesday as a weak cold front moves 
through deep south Texas Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Any 
showers or thunderstorms may reduce ceilings and/or visibilities to 
temporary MVFR or IFR conditions. VFR to MVFR conditions will 
prevail over the regional airports during the next 24 hours. 
&& 


Marine...at 7 PM buoy 20 reported southeast winds at 14 knots with 
gusts to 16 knots and seas at 4.6 feet with a 6 second period. A 
weak cold front will move through the marine areas Tuesday into 
Wednesday morning. There is a chance for showers and isolated 
thunderstorms moving through portions of the marine areas at times 
Tuesday and Wednesday. Once the front passes the winds will shift 
from the southeast to the northeast. Moderate winds and seas will 
prevail over the marine areas through Wednesday. Low to moderate 
winds and low seas will prevail over the marine areas on Thursday 
and Friday. 
&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 1250 PM CDT Monday Oct 6 2008/ 
kbro 88d Doppler shows no rain over deep S Texas or the adjacent Gulf 
waters this afternoon. Rain showers/thunderstorms and rain showers confined to extreme NE Texas 
at this time...as an upper level low now over the Texas pnhndl has ushered in 
a cold front now through elp and most of the Texas pnhndl. 


This cf will edge to the northern rgv by 7 PM Tuesday...bringing an 
increase of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain showers to our region Tuesday morning through 7 am 
Wednesday morning. This weak cf slowly backs winds from the southeast to the NE 
during Tuesday afternoon...increasing to 20 kts early Wednesday morning 
over the offshore waters. The rgv will only receive NE winds from 15 
kts to near 20 knots Wednesday mainly near the coast...then surface winds 
quickly veer southeast...remaining southeast at only 10 miles per hour Thursday through Sunday 
morning. By Sunday afternoon...a strong cf moves through the rgv bringing 
stronger thunderstorms west/heavy rafl and driving temperatures to the 50s. 


Marine...at noon buoy020 reported south winds at 14kts and seas 5.5 
feet. Scec conditions will remain today as some breezes push above 
15 knots during the day...but most should remain at or below 15kts. Tropical 
depression 13 has Bee named in the far southern Bay of Campeche. It 
is a very small system...maybe 150 miles across...and is moving 
almost due west into southern Mexico...and should not affect the 
local weather. The next front is still prognosticated between midnight and 
sunrise Wednesday. Winds behind the front will peak right at 20 
knots as it passes...so Small Craft Advisory may be needed briefly Wednesday morning. 
Conditions will improve quickly with lighter winds and seas for the 
rest of the week. Rainfall is expected tomorrow with prefrontal 
convection...and overnight Tuesday night as the front approaches. 
Some of these storms may produce gusty winds and occasional cloud to 
surface lightning. 


Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail through 24 hours. Winds 
today will be from the south southeast in the 15 to 20 knot range 
with gusts near 25. Winds will decrease overnight at the surface...but 
will remain elevated aloft...so speed shear may be a concern. Cloud 
cover will build some overnight as well...mainly near the 
coast...with some MVFR ceilings at times. 
&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Bayview/Port Isabel 76 90 74 85 / 30 60 40 10 
Brownsville 75 91 73 86 / 30 60 40 10 
Harlingen 74 90 72 87 / 20 60 40 10 
McAllen 77 92 73 88 / 10 60 30 10 
Rio Grande City 74 92 70 89 / 10 30 30 10 
South Padre Island 79 87 76 84 / 30 60 40 10 
&& 


Bro watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


This product is also available on the web at: 
http://www.Weather.Gov/Brownsville 


Public/grids...61 
aviation/marine...63 
meso/fxc...Hart