905 
fxus64 kama 040443 aab 
afdama 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas 
1143 PM CDT Thursday Jul 3 2008 




Update... 
a few showers and thunderstorms have developed across the southeast 
Texas Panhandle this evening. Therefore...low end probability of precipitation were included 
to include this activity. Otherwise...no changes were made. 


Johnson 


&& 


Aviation... 
a few showers and thunderstorms may affect the northwest portion of 
the County Warning Area /as well as the southeast areas/ but this is not expected to 
have a large impact at the terminals. East to southwest winds will 
veer to the south by morning. Lee troffing will result in winds 
increasing to around 15 kts during the afternoon hours. A high based 
cumulus field is forecast to develop around 8 to 10 kft. A stray storm 
cannot be ruled out tomorrow afternoon/evening but confidence is very 
low so no cumulonimbus remarks will be included in the forecast. Winds will 
diminish around 02z to generally 12 kts or less. 


Johnson 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 659 PM CDT Thursday Jul 3 2008/ 


Aviation... 
the cold front has moved south of the panhandles this evening keeping 
the convection bottled up to our south. Surface winds will remain on 
the light side with the surface ridge axis over the area. The Lee 
trough will set up on Friday...resulting in southerly winds which may 
increase to around 15 kts by the afternoon hours. A few thunderstorms 
are possible during the afternoon but confidence is very low at this 
point. I did include cumulonimbus remarks at kama beginning at 21z but not at 
the other terminals. Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected through 
the taf period. 


Johnson 


Previous discussion... /issued 352 PM CDT Thursday Jul 3 2008/ 


Discussion... 
convective potential is the main forecast concern this evening. 
Surface cold front has pushed south of the County Warning Area with scattered showers 
developing along its leading edge over the far southern Texas Panhandle. 
Current msas surface analysis shows weak high pressure over the 
panhandles and with the front south of the area and cool stable air 
near the surface...thinking convective chances are pretty slim 
tonight. In fact the latest swody1 pulled the County Warning Area even out of the 
general risk. So pulled probability of precipitation completely out of the forecast tonight 
with partly cloudy skies and temperatures generally in the 60s. 


Middle/upper ridge over The Four Corners region will amplify and push 
further to the east Friday. The 4th of July Holiday is shaping to be a 
nice day although it will be rather hot as temperatures warm up significantly 
into the 90s and may even touch 100 in the OK Panhandle. Maintained 
slight chance probability of precipitation during the afternoon and evening as forecast 
soundings indicate cape values around 1800 j/kg and a diffuse shortwave moving 
into the area. Not overly excited about precipitation chances though 
thinking convection will be widely scattered. 


Very few changes to the remainder of the forecast as the ridge 
amplifies and keeps the panhandles dry with temperatures above normal. 
Next chance of precipitation will come Monday as a front slides through the 
area. 


Clk 


Fire weather... 
again fire weather concerns will be marginal even though temperatures will 
warm up quite a bit. Relative humidity values are expected to remain above 20 
percent the next couple of days. 


Clk 


&& 


Ama watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
OK...none. 


&& 


$$ 


24/07