235 
fxus64 klch 040235 
afdlch 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lake Charles la 
935 PM CDT Thursday Jul 3 2008 


Update...evening lch sounding somewhat more moist and a bit more 
unstable than expected on prognosticated sounding. A short wave is 
expected to move in from the Gulf tnite. Showers have been slow to 
weaken over cen la. Will let the 20 probability of precipitation ride from the current 
forecast and add 20 percent for cen la tnite. Independance day looks 
to have an active seabreeze similar to today with scattered convection. 
Once the seabreeze boundary passes in the late afternoon, there 
should be a rapid decrease in showers and clouds, leading to an 
early evening good for fireworks viewing with only light south 
winds. Have a Happy and safe 4th! 


$$ 


Marine...expecting nocturnal showers/thunderstorms in the usual pattern 
later tnite with initial development off Atchafalaya Bay. Seas 
building to 2 to 3 feet with the good fetch of light southerly winds. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 327 PM CDT Thursday Jul 3 2008/ 


Synopsis... 
the Bermuda high ridges west-southwest through South Florida and 
into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. An inverted trough (or trough in 
the easterlies) is situated at the western extent of the Bermuda 
high...situated over the northwest Gulf of Mexico near 95 degrees 
west. This non-tropical system will move little. 


At cirrus level...a low index pattern in the westerly wind regime 
remains in place over the Continental United States...a longwave 
ridge over the western third and a longwave trough over the eastern 
third. Associated shortwaves...emanating out of the Front Range of 
The Rockies...continue traveling southeast through Texas...passing 
over the western Gulf Coast states and into the Gulf of Mexico. 


Discussion... 
for tonight...seasonal temperatures and humidities can be 
expected. Retained slight rain chances for this evening...mainly 
south of I-10...due in part...to passing shortwaves overhead. 


For Independence day...the GFS model depicts low-level moisture 
pooling over the coastal marshes and I-10 prairies. This pooling 
along with passing shortwaves aloft...mid-level difluence 
associated with inverted trough...and the heating of the ground 
will bring about scattered showers and thunderstorms. 


Otherwise...you can expect near seasonal temperatures and 
humidities. 


Aviation... 
VFR flying conditions are expected for tonight. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
klch 74 90 73 92 / 20 50 10 40 
kbpt 74 91 74 91 / 20 50 10 40 
kaex 70 92 71 94 / 20 30 10 30 
klft 73 90 73 91 / 20 50 10 40 


&& 


Lch watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...none. 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Js