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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas 
635 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2008 


Aviation... 
some high based afternoon and evening cumulus coupled with some middle level 
clouds from extreme outer fringes of dying hrcn Dolly is about all 
that is expected for next 24 hours...with VFR conditions prevailing 
at all taf sites as upper level ridge of high pressure dominates the 
weather. 


Andrade 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 319 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2008/ 


Update... 
the big story right now is Hurricane Dolly making landfall in south 
Texas and what she will decide to do this weekend and early next 
week. Should start seeing some cirrus from the storm moving overhead 
as early as tomorrow...and this could have an impact on temperatures. 
Also higher dewpoints associated with the storm and the flow off the 
Gulf should keep the panhandles fairly moist...making it hard to 
reach the extreme temperatures we might otherwise see being 
underneath the upper level ridge this week. So have decided to 
undercut mavmos guidance temperatures by a little bit on Friday. 


Further out the forecast depends a lot on the track of the remnants 
of Dolly. Both the GFS and the NAM are in fairly good agreement that 
Dolly should track northwest through the Rio Grande Valley. The NAM 
is a little bit further north with the track. Further out the GFS and 
the European model (ecmwf) are in surprising agreement that the remains of Dolly will 
be pushed northward along The Rockies and then emerge back out onto 
the plains over the Oklahoma Panhandle early next week. Though the 
NAM does not go out far enough in time to assess this...the general 
pattern at the end of its cycle with the upper ridge shifting 
slightly east into Oklahoma would support a northward track of the 
tropical system as it encounters the Rocky Mountains. Even further out 
into the later part of next week...the GFS stalls the system out over 
Oklahoma and even tries to bring it back westward into the panhandles 
again. Do not buy this solution as it would be much more likely for 
Dolly to continue east and get caught up in the broad trough over the 
eastern United States and be out of our hair for good. 


But the potential for rain from this system early next week is 
there...though am reluctant to adjust the forecast too much at this 
time since this is the first run of models showing this system moving 
into our area. For the extended portion of the forecast...have 
lowered temperatures a little bit and increased dewpoints and cloud 
cover. The difference in maximum temperatures between the 00z mex and the 
12z mex was 10 degrees or more in some cases. Whether we are under a 
big upper ridge or under a remnant tropical system will really impact 
temperatures significantly. For now only adjusted a few degrees down 
from the 00z mexmos guidance. Did not insert probability of precipitation yet as more 
consistency in the model runs would be needed before confidence is 
that high in this solution. Will let future shifts evaluate as time 
GOES on. 


Kimble 


&& 


Ama watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
OK...none. 


&& 


$$