649 
fxus64 ksjt 030446 
afdsjt 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas 
1046 PM CST Tuesday Dec 2 2008 




Discussion... 
see 06z aviation discussion below. 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. Southwest 
winds over the northern terminals...kabi and ksjt...will gust to 
25 knots for the remainder of the night with southerly winds 
around 10 knots at the remaining terminals. Southwest winds over 
all of west central Texas will begin to veer northwest beginning 
at kabi around 17z and over the remaining terminals by early 
afternoon. Wind gusts to 25 knots over the northern terminals will 
increase to 30 knots after frontal passage...gusting to around 25 
knots over the remaining terminals. Winds will remain strong over 
the area until late evening. There will be a scattered-broken deck of 
cirrus over the area through late afternoon before clearing. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 911 PM CST Tuesday Dec 2 2008/ 


Discussion... 
current forecast in grids/zones looks good for tonight. Strong srly 
winds remain ahead of our approaching front...still looking to 
push through wc Texas during the day Wednesday. Temperatures much warmer tonight 
than Monday nt with very good srly flow. No update is anticipated for 
zones or grids at this time. 


11 


Previous discussion... /issued 522 PM CST Tuesday Dec 2 2008/ 


Discussion... 
see 00z aviation discussion below. 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. Southwest 
winds over the northern terminals will be gusty after midnight with 
gusts to around 20 knots. Southwest winds this evening and overnight 
will turn to west and northwest before 18z at kabi...and turn to 
northwest later in the day for the southern area tafs. Winds will 
increase after frontal passage tomorrow afternoon from the 
northwest around 20 knots gusting to around 30 knots with somewhat 
lighter winds over the southeastern terminals. 


Previous discussion... /issued 307 PM CST Tuesday Dec 2 2008/ 


Discussion... 


No major changes planned for this forecast package. 


Lee side low pressure over the High Plains has brought breezy 
south to southwest winds to the area this afternoon...and this 
should continue into tonight as low pressure organizes and slides 
east across northern Oklahoma in advance of a digging short wave trough 
currently over the Pacific northwest. This will keep overnight lows up in the 
40s and 50s. Some stratus may also intrude into The Hill Country 
late as the moisture return evident by what is currently going on 
over deep south Texas reaches our area by that time. 


The aforementioned trough will push a cold front through west central Texas on 
Wednesday and based on the timing of the front high temperatures will 
vary considerably from north to south. Temperatures may climb into the 
upper 70s to near 80 down over the Northwest Hill country before the 
front arrives due to good downslope warming that is typically 
found ahead of fronts. Up north across the Big Country...temperatures 
will not get out of the 50s in most areas and may reach near 60 at 
Abilene. Thursday will be much cooler with highs only expected to 
reach the upper 40s north to lower 50s south. Low level moisture 
that will be brought up tonight into portions of our area will be 
shunted east ahead of the front...so this will be a dry frontal passage. 


Only a slow rebound in temperatures is expected on Friday as we 
recirculate cold air on the backside of the surface high. Highs 
will climb slightly above average over the weekend with a 
predominant dry northwest flow pattern in place. 


The forecast for early next week is still uncertain...with varying 
model solutions regarding a closed low off the California coast later this 
week. As is typical...models struggle with the handling of closed 
(especially cutoff) lows especially forecasting when the systems 
get picked up in the flow and eject east across the country. The 
European model (ecmwf) ejects the closed low and makes it an open wave...moving it 
into Texas by early Tuesday with some chances for rain for early next 
week. On the other hand...the GFS leaves the cutoff low 
disconnected from the flow longer and does not eject the system 
until late next week. As a result of the uncertainty will elect 
not to make changes to our current dry forecast...which follows 
the GFS solution more closely. 


Lacy 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Abilene 72 51 62 31 49 / 0 0 10 0 0 
San Angelo 76 48 73 32 52 / 0 0 10 0 0 
Junction 73 45 79 32 56 / 0 0 10 0 0 


&& 


Sjt watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


99/99/15