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fxus62 kilm 030855 
afdilm 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington NC 
355 am EST Wednesday Dec 3 2008 


Synopsis... 
cool and dry weather will continue through tonight as high 
pressure moves across the area. Southwest flow ahead of an 
approaching cold front will allow a brief warmup into the 60s on 
Thursday. The front will cross the eastern Carolinas by Friday 
morning...but linger just to our south and east into the weekend. 
Large high pressure will reinforce the cold air for Sunday and 
Monday...and the next low pressure system will bring a chance of 
rain Tuesday. 




&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
as of 3 am Wednesday...crisp morning lows generally in the middle 
20s to lower 30s at daybreak should climb into the middle 50s today 
under full sunshine and light wind as a broad surface high drifts over 
the Carolinas today...weakening and sliding offshore tonight. Thus 
a clear and cool day on tap with no impacts aside from scraping frost 
off windshields this morning. As the weakening surface high centers itself 
offshore of Cape Lookout tonight...a weak return flow of southerly 
winds will likely edge dewpoints up a bit into daybreak Thursday. 
Notable radiational cooling tonight coupled with the weak south winds 
could instigate patchy fog and mist early Thursday morning near the 
coast with lows bottoming out in the upper 20s to middle 30s throughout 
the forecast area. 




&& 


Short term /Thursday through Friday/... 
as of 3 am Wednesday...return flow on Thursday will allow maximum 
temperatures to reach the lower 60s...which is barely above climatology but 
certainly a rare sight the last few weeks. Recovering low-level 
moisture ahead of the approaching cold front remains quite 
shallow...and any good forcing remains far enough north that probability of precipitation 
have been pushed back until after 06z Friday. Still only carrying a 
low chance pop and low quantitative precipitation forecast at that. 


Models now trending a bit slower and shallower with the frontal passage...so 
the coastal/southern zones will see the probability of precipitation delayed until 
daybreak Friday. Middle-level trough is not as sharp as previously 
advertised and flow will remain west-southwest above about 850mb...so I have 
held on to more cloud cover Friday afternoon. Minimal changes to 
previous forecast highs in the Lower/Middle 50s as it is just a 
matter of clouds limiting temperatures rather than cold pool. 


&& 


Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/... 
as of 3 am Wednesday...low confidence forecast for the first part 
of the weekend as it remains to be seen how far south the cold 
front will get before it becomes oriented parallel to the upper 
flow. Not yet buying off on the GFS solution that keeps at least 
chance probability of precipitation in through Sat night...and will keep the previous idea of 
cold and dry weather that still looks a lot like the European model (ecmwf) solution. 
Later shifts may reverse field if better model agreement and/or 
run-to-run consistency is established. 


By Sat night/sun a clipper low will consolidate with a deepening 
low well offshore...and large high pressure will build east from 
the plains and provide another shot of temperatures roughly 10 degrees 
below climatology both day and night. GFS advertises decent moisture 
return ahead of the next upper trough...currently slated for 
Tuesday...but still a long way to go to figure out timing and any 
phasing between northern and southern stream. For now will carry 
chance probability of precipitation Tuesday and a narrower diurnal temperature range. 


&& 


Aviation /08z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
clear skies and calm winds expected through dawn as high pressure 
builds in from the west. Dew point depressions should be large 
enough to keep fog from forming. The center of high pressure will be 
directly overhead today. Light and variable winds in the morning 
will gradually shift into the south as high pressure slides off the 
coast. Along the coast...winds will be more southeasterly during the 
afternoon with a slight resultant sea breeze component. 


Outlook through Sunday...a slight chance of showers Thursday 
afternoon with a weak cold front...otherwise VFR through Friday with 
a slight chance of precipitation Saturday. 


&& 


Marine... 
near term /through tonight/... 
as of 3 am Wednesday...crisp morning lows generally in the middle 
20s to lower 30s at daybreak should climb into the middle 50s today 
under full sunshine and light wind as a broad surface high drifts over 
the Carolinas today...weakening and sliding offshore tonight. Thus 
a clear and cool day on tap with no impacts aside from scraping frost 
off windshields this morning. As the weakening surface high centers itself 
offshore of Cape Lookout tonight...a weak return flow of southerly 
winds will likely edge dewpoints up a bit into daybreak Thursday. 
Notable radiational cooling tonight coupled with the weak south winds 
could instigate patchy fog and mist early Thursday morning near the 
coast with lows bottoming out in the upper 20s to middle 30s throughout 
the forecast area. 


Short term /Thursday through Friday/... 
as of 3 am Wednesday...SW return flow will gradually increase 
ahead of the approaching front...but not enough gradient to 
support more than 10-15 knots. Front moves offshore prior to daybreak 
Friday with winds coming around to the north. However the frontal passage now 
looks slower and shallow enough that any cold surge will not be 
very deep. As a result the wind forecast for Friday has been cut 
back to a solid 15 knots. Mainly offshore trajectory will limit seas 
to 2-4 feet within 20nm...perhaps 5 feet at Frying Pan buoy. 


Long term /Friday night through Sunday/... 
as of 3 am Wednesday...look for diminishing northerly winds Friday 
night into Sat as whatever cold surge is left will die out. 
Clipper low will enter the picture Saturday night and consolidate 
into deepening low southeast of New England. Gradient will tighten 
between this feature and strong high pressure building from the 
plains. Will go for increasing west winds in this time 
frame...keeping speeds capped at 15-20 knots for now. 


Seas toned down a bit from previous forecast...and will be limited 
by the offshore fetch at the time of the strongest winds. Nearly 
due west direction will create a wide enough variation that we 
should only see 2 feet near shore while Frying Pan buoy could get to 
5 or even close to 6 feet. 


&& 


Climate... 
this November will go down as well below normal for temperatures 
thanks to a chilly second half of the month. Florence, SC had an 
average temperature of 50.6 degrees and an average high 
temperature of 61.9 degrees. These were both good enough for 2nd 
place respectively for coldest November temperatures. Wilmington, 
NC also saw a cold November but historically speaking nothing was 
significant enough to warrant a placement in the top 10. 


For a much more detailed summary of November refer to the latest 
public information statement...WMO header nous42 kilm. You can 
find this at our website at weather.Gov/ilm under the top news of 
the day. 


&& 


Ilm watches/warnings/advisories... 
SC...none. 
NC...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Near term...mjc 
short term...Ras 
long term...Ras 
aviation...mjc/heden 
climate...heden 

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