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afdgsp 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 
734 am EDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Synopsis... 
a weak area of low pressure and its associated frontal boundary will 
linger off the Carolina coast and weaken through tonight. Moist 
easterly flow across the western Carolinas will give way to milder 
high pressure on Sunday and keep our weather quiet and warm through 
mid-week. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
for the morning hours...we will have to contend with light rain 
showers or patches of drizzle moving east to west in the circulation 
around the old upper low. The low should move westward today to our 
south and is expected to pull a weak vorticity lobe across the southern 
half of the forecast area. This additional bit of forcing combined 
with the easterly upslope should be able to trigger scattered 
showers over the southernmost zones during the day. Meanwhile...dry 
air will be trying to filter in from the high pressure to the north 
this afternoon and tonight. This should put a damper on shower 
chances over the mountains and the northern zones today...although some 
showers could be forced near the Blue Ridge. A north to south 
gradient in cloud cover will keep temperatures a degree or two cooler over 
the south today...and then a few degrees warmer tonight as well. 


&& 


Short term /Sunday through Monday night/... 
as of 230 am Saturday...the general flow regime for Sunday will 
feature lingering Atlantic fetch...an easterly wind likely lifting 
some degree of mainly shallow moisture across the southern half or 
third of the County warning forecast area. This should result in spotty light showers... 
sprinkles and drizzle...especially in the morning and mainly 
along and southeast of the southern Blue Ridge. Given the orientation 
of the moisture and shower chances...probably will see a non- 
Standard maximum temperature spread...with slightly milder values in 
the drier across across NC...despite lower low level thicknesses in 
this area. Planning on making a downward nudge to maximum temperatures 
across the SW County warning forecast area. Surface ridge center expected to continue dropping 
south through Sunday night...loosening pressure gradient and 
diminishing easterly flow. Sensible weather Sunday night probably 
limited to variable clouds...mainly from terrain lift. Under deep 
layered ridging and more definitive deep drying...going dry forecast to 
continue for Columbus day as maximum temperatures climb to above normal levels. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Friday/... 
as of 230 am Saturday...with some degree of return flow developing 
on Tuesday out ahead of approaching weak cold front...maximum temperatures will 
continue to climb aw lingering ridging keeps the forecast dry. A 
reversal of trends was noted in the latest op GFS...now speeding up 
translation of frontal band moisture into the mountains on 
Wednesday. Best to wait until look at new medium range 
models/ensembles/HPC guidance later this morning before changing 
going dry and warm forecast. With the slight uncertainties now 
introduced for for Wednesday...will not make any changes to the late 
week period either. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
another round of low clouds this morning...lifting this afternoon. Expect at 
least tempo MVFR through 15z...possibly longer. NE winds becoming gusty by 
this afternoon. There should be enough mixing tonight to preclude fog. 


Outlook...high pressure continues to build in from the north sun with 
drier high pressure building in early next week. There could be ceiling 
restrictions Sun morning...mainly across the S County Warning Area. 


&& 


Gsp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Georgia...none. 
NC...none. 
SC...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...csh 
near term...PM 
short term...csh 
long term...csh/jpt 
aviation...rb