307 
fxus62 kcae 211851 
afdcae 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Columbia SC 
251 PM EDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the 
north...while ts Fay begins its slow trek westward through 
northern Florida and southern Georgia through Friday. The 
pressure gradient between these two systems will cause breezy 
conditions in the forecast area through Friday. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
satellite and radar imagery appear to show ts Fay beginning a 
westward movement this afternoon. We will still be influenced by 
ts Fay to the south and an area of high pressure off to the north. 
Outer rainbands associated with Fay will continue to move inland 
off the Atlantic overnight. Best rain chances will be across the 
south...with mainly showers expected. Winds will continue to 
remain strong this evening...so will continue with Current Lake 
Wind Advisory until midnight. Although winds should slacken off a 
little after midnight...they will still remain gusty at times. 


&& 


Short term /Friday through Saturday night/... 
most model guidance continues to show tight surface pressure 
gradient and strong surface winds tomorrow. Another lwa will be 
needed Friday from late morning into the evening. Southern 
counties will continue to have higher rain chances both Friday and 
Saturday. Fay should begin moving far enough away from region by 
Saturday night so that its influences our weather will diminish. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Thursday/... 
weak upper level ridging will remain over the region through the 
middle of next week. Probability of precipitation will remain low into the 
week...increasing into the chance category by the middle of the 
week. Temperatures will remain near climatology. 


&& 


Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/... 
as T.S. Fay remains nearly stationary off the Florida coast...high 
pressure will continue to build in from the north. This will 
increase the pressure gradient and result in higher winds through 
the period. East winds mainly 14kt with gusts to g24 kts for the 
rest of the afternoon. Expect east winds around 10 kts overnight. 
East winds will again increase to around 12-15 kts with gusts to 24 
kts after 13z Friday. Some MVFR ceilings possible below 3000 feet mainly 
overnight through much of the rest of the period on Friday. 
Otherwise mainly VFR conditions for much of the 24 hour taf period. A 
few showers possible throughout the taf period as rain bands from 
T.S. Fay sweep through. Timing of showers is uncertain. 


Extended period...all interests across the region are urged to 
monitor the track and movement of tropical cyclone Fay for 
possible impact. Too much uncertainty exists regarding the track of 
this storm to predict possible effects on aviation. 


&& 


Cae watches/warnings/advisories... 
SC...lake Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for scz015-016- 
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041. 
Lake Wind Advisory from 9 am to 9 PM EDT Friday for scz015-016- 
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041. 
Georgia...Lake Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for gaz040- 
063>065-077. 
Lake Wind Advisory from 9 am to 9 PM EDT Friday for gaz040- 
063>065-077. 


&& 


$$