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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 
313 am EST Wednesday Dec 3 2008 


Synopsis... 
weak high pressure will provide dry and tranquil weather through 
tonight. A cold front may bring a brief period of scattered light 
rain showers/sprinkles Thursday....followed by unseasonably cold 
weather for Friday through Monday. A low pressure system may graze 
the region with a bit of wintry weather late in the weekend. 


&& 


Near term /through today/... 
a mostly sunny day will result in nice weather for early December 
standards. Middle level temperatures warm significantly today...but 
with a chilly start and the low December sun angle the full mixing 
potential will not be realized. Nonetheless...highs should top out 
in the middle to upper 40s with plenty of sunshine. It will feel a bit 
milder than yesterday as we will not have the gusty winds. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through 6 PM Thursday/... 


Tonight... 
high cloudiness will gradually increase out ahead of our next cold 
front. However...still expect a partly cloudy night across the 
region. Lows should range from the low to middle 20s across southwest 
New Hampshire/northwest Massachusetts...to mainly the upper 20s and lower 30s elsewhere. 
Downtown Boston and Nantucket will be the warmspots with lows in the 
middle to upper 30s. In addition...a strengthening low level jet 
should allow areas along the South Coast to see temperatures begin 
to rise toward daybreak. This is particularly true for the cape and 
islands and will try to show in this in our graphical forecast 
products. 


Thursday... 
a windy day is on tap for the eastern half of southern New England 
along with above normal temperatures. 850 mb temperatures will 
start the day between +4c and +6c ahead of an approaching cold 
front. Good mixing ahead of the front should yield high 
temperatures in the middle to upper 40s across the interior...to 
between 50 and 55 degrees on the coastal plain. However...it will 
not feel quite that mild as soundings support gusty southwest 
winds. We expect southwest winds between 15 and 25 miles per hour with gusts 
between 35 and 40 miles per hour across our eastern zones. Can not rule out a 
brief marginal Wind Advisory for the Blue Hills/cape/islands...but 
for now will keep things just below. 


We should see partial sunshine for the first part of the morning. 
However...clouds will increase across the interior by late morning 
and reach the coastal plain by middle afternoon. So we do expect skies 
to become mostly cloudy across most areas by afternoon. Moisture is 
lacking...but enough forcing and dynamics appear available for a 
brief band of scattered light rain showers/sprinkles along the front 
with the best chance across the interior. They look to arrive by 
early afternoon across the interior and reach the coastal plain by 
late afternoon/early evening. Will run with high chance probability of precipitation across 
southwest New Hampshire/northwest Massachusetts...to low chance on the coastal plain. 
Rainfall amounts look very light with most locations receiving a 
trace to five hundredths of an inch. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/... 
***no unusual winter weather on the horizon and delayed winter snow season 
continues*** 


General international model suite agreement through next Tuesday 
inclusive of 12z GFS/15z sref ensembles/12z op runs of the GFS/NAM/UKMET 
and European model (ecmwf). 


Departure from GFS MOS guide occurred next Tuesday when MOS guidance 
wind direction was 180 degrees out of phase with the 12z GFS and 
therefore defaulted to the 14z HPC wind guidance for next Tuesday. 


Forecast confidence for all parameters: generally at or above average through 
Tuesday morning then at or below average late next Tuesday. 


Snowfall per daily clms for orh/con as well looking at daily norms on 
nohrsc shows below normal 4 to 8 inches to date in New England. 


Climatology...the dailies while showing a few degrees above normal Thursday 
will be almost 10f below normal Sunday. 


The dailies... 


Friday...cold and dry. Think temperatures will end up 2 or 3 degrees colder than 
the new kbox forecast during the daylight hours. Tried to cut GFS MOS 
guidance slightly. 


Saturday...tweener. Not much going on...though there could be some snow 
showers developing along the coast during the afternoon depending on 
bl wind direction and associated ocean effect development. Confidence 
on where and if any snow showers during the afternoon is below average. 


Sunday...looks to ME like a strengthening negative tilt short wave Burrows 
across Middle Atlantic States before lifting NE toward Georges Bank...generally 
too late for a major storm here. Instead...think there will be a 
cluster of MDT to heavy snow showers vicinity the vorticity maximum. Looks like a 
grazer...at worst and did little to change that thinking via our 
gridded probability of precipitation. I did change weather type from snow to snow showers...to be 
less ominous. Doesnt mean it can be a decent snow event for parts of 
the coast but at this time...no model is indicating that heavier scenario. 


Monday...instead...could see a decent amount of lake effect Monday 
morning during cold air advection north-northwest bl flow. Probability of precipitation and skycover raised for Outer 
Cape. 


Tuesday...appears to be dry high pressure...beginning of warm air advection at night. 
Little change to the previous 4am kbox forecast guidance. 


&& 


Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/... 


Today and tonight...VFR. 


Thursday...mainly VFR but we could see very brief pockets of MVFR 
conditions during the afternoon with a narrow band of scattered 
light rain showers/sprinkles. The best chance for this will be 
across the interior. In addition...southwest wind gusts of 30 to 35 
knots are expected across the eastern half of the region. 


Outlook...Thursday night through Sunday... 


Friday...VFR. 


Saturday...VFR may diminishing to MVFR in scattered late day snow or rain showers 
along the coast but this is not a high probability. 


Sunday...VFR except a period of MVFR or IFR conds in scattered snow showers 
coast...especially at night. Northwest wind gusts to 30 kts develop by night 
ack/bos. 


&& 


Marine... 


Today...ridge of high pressure nosing in will keep southwest winds 
in the 10 to 15 knot range. However...will continue Small Craft Advisory headlines 
for our southern outer-waters for left over 3 to 5 foot seas. 


Tonight...southwest winds will begin to increase after midnight with 
developing low level jet. Winds should be blowing at 15 to 20 knots 
with gusts to 25 knots across our southern waters by daybreak 
Wednesday. 


Thursday...strong low level jet out ahead of a cold front will yield 
the potential for marginal southwest 35 knot wind gusts across our 
southern waters. We only need 50 percent confidence for a 
watch...so have gone ahead and issued a gale watch for this region. 
Across our northern outer-waters...Boston Harbor and narr Bay expect 
strong Small Craft Advisory and have issued headlines for that. 


Outlook...Thursday night through Sunday... 


Friday...Small Craft Advisory conditions continue...especially across 
the outer coastal waters...with winds and seas decreasing gradually. 


Saturday...expected to be quiet. 


Sunday...Small Craft Advisory likely at night with possible need for a gale at night. 


&& 


Box watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Rhode Island...none. 
Marine...gale watch from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon 
for anz231>235-237-254-255. 
Small Craft Advisory from 9 am to 5 PM EST Thursday for anz230- 
236-250. 
Small Craft Advisory until 5 am EST early this morning for 
anz235. 
Small Craft Advisory until 9 am EST Thursday for anz254-255. 






&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...Frank 
near term...Frank 
short term...Frank 
long term...drag 
aviation...Frank/drag 
marine...Frank/drag 

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