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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 
1051 am EDT Monday Oct 13 2008 


Synopsis... 
in general...weak high pressure will control the weather through Wednesday. 
The exceptions will be weak dry cool frontal passages today and Tuesday 
night. Another cold front may bring a few showers Wednesday night into 
early Thursday. Then strong cool high pressure will build across the Great 
Lakes and New England Friday through Sunday while low pressure passes to 
the southeast of the area Sat and Sunday. It will be warmer than 
normal Tuesday and Wednesday then cooler than normal Friday through Sunday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
1030 am update...satellite imagery shows enough cloud cover moving 
down from New Hampshire and Maine to support increasing sky cover for this 
afternoon. The exact numbers may be a little pessimistic on 
detail...but are accurate on trend. Little or no changes on grids 
this update. 


Clouds will thicken up...thinning out again by late afternoon/early 
evening. Temperatures will be very similar to yesterday/S with middle 
60s along the coast and low to middle 70s in the Connecticut valley. If 
the clouds hang around longer than expected...temperatures along the 
coast may only be around 60. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Tuesday/... 
the front will wash out overnight ushering in high pressure. Middle 
and high clouds will remain through much of the night. MOS guidance 
temperatures seem reasonable so went with a blend. Lows will generally be 
in the middle to upper 40s. Tuesday...clearing skies...warm 925 and 
850mb temperatures...and southwest flow will result in warmer above normal 
surface temperatures. This was not reflected in the MOS guidance... 
so kept the previous forecast values. Highs will range from the middle 
60s on the islands to the middle to upper 70s in the Connecticut 
valley. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/... 
little change was made to the 4p Sunday forecast...primarily because of 
uncertainty. A small boost in probability of precipitation Thursday may be the beginning of 
what could turn out to be occasional wet and chilly weather...despite 
many of the available international models trying to develop a coastal 
low too late for much impact here. 


The dailies below... 




Wednesday...a 50/50 blend of the previous forecast kbox temperatures and new 00z/13 GFS MOS 
temperatures. This still may be too warm but stepping it down slightly. This 
appears to be a very nice day...once again...within this spectacular 
set of early fall days. 


Thursday...probability of precipitation boosted slightly and since am on a one day stint...did not 
lock future shifts into higher probability of precipitation but blv we will see a few showers 
with higher probabilities in future forecasts. 


Friday-Sat and possibly into sun... 
jury is out on eastward trend of the model guidance. Still can see periods 
of cold rain as cool high pressure tries to spread to our north and low pressure 
tries to form along the middle Atlantic coast. Eventually this could lead to 
blustery north-northeast flow along the coast...and this scenario is not well 
described in our grids. Since it was day 5-7 played it conservative 
but I do not expect to go on and on with great Fall weather uninterrupted 
by a cold rain. Timing of the rain...northward extent and the wind 


Confidence: therefore the forecast confidence for the probability of rain 
this Friday-sun is well below average and even for Thursday...confidence is not 
any more than average. 


&& 


Aviation /15z Monday through Friday/... 
mainly VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday. Northeast to 
east winds around 10 to 15 kts develop this afternoon...then diminish 
tonight. 


A back-door cold front may produce MVFR ceilings along the East Coast 
today. However this has a low probability of occurring due to a dry 
boundary layer. 


Patchy fog possible tonight at the usual suspects...especially in 
the CT River Valley. 


Outlook...Tuesday night through Friday... 


VFR through at least Wednesday night. MVFR conditions possible Thursday and Friday. 


&& 


Marine... 
light winds and fairly calm seas are expected through Tuesday. 
Northeast to east winds will pick up into the 10-15kt range this 
afternoon following the passage of a back door front. 


Outlook...Tuesday night through Friday... 


Relatively weak pressure gradient should preclude any widespread 
small craft winds/seas through Thursday. North or northwest winds will increase to 
near small craft levels with seas building to 5 feet in the outer 
waters on Friday. As a heads-up...a persistent northerly flow will 
likely keep seas on the higher side this weekend. There is a low 
probability of gale force gusts east and S of ack this weekend. 


&& 


Box watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Rhode Island...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...drag 
near term...wtb/rlg 
short term...rlg 
long term...drag 
aviation...drag/rlg 
marine...drag/rlg