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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 
255 PM EDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will maintain dry weather through weekend. A cold 
front may bring showers and thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday... 
before dry and seasonable weather returns for much of next week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Friday/... 
pleasant weather on tap through tonight. Local sea breezes have 
developed along the East Coast of Massachusetts and will diminish this 
evening. High pressure across New York state will keep skies clear. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Friday through Friday night/... 
the high pressure over New York shifts farther offshore 
overnight... allowing for a more southerly wind and slightly warmer 
temperatures Friday. This high pressure should remain in place of 
the East Coast Friday night as well. 


MOS guidance temperatures look reasonable...so did not stray too far 
from the consensus given the quiet weather. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Thursday/... 
dry weather through most of the extended period as a large amplitude 
ridge remains entrenched across the northeast. Main item of interest 
is a cold front which is expected to cross region Sun night and Monday. 


12z GFS remains most progressive with this front...but even it keeps 
best lift and deeper moisture west of New England until Sun night. This 
means we should remain dry through weekend...though humidity will be 
more noticeable sun as SW flow nudges dewpoints into middle 60s. This 
increase in low level moisture coupled with light S/SW flow may lead 
to patchy fog/low clouds around Cape Cod and islands Sun night and 
Monday morning. 


We tempered quicker GFS solution with earlier runs of sref/gefs which 
suggest front will weaken and slow down as it pushes through 
southern New England. This may cause convection to redevelop Monday 
afternoon....especially across Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts where frontal convergence 
is maximized. Kept chance probability of precipitation Sun night and Monday...though we will 
show improving conditions in northern zones Monday afternoon as front 
reaches S coast. 


Beyond Monday...another stretch of dry and seasonable late Summer 
weather expected as upper ridge crests over region. We are still not 
very confident with idea of having some sort of tropical low well 
off southeast coast bringing moisture into our area by middle or late week...as 
this is not supported by gefs. Appears to be a very low probability 
event at this time. 


Stayed close to gmos for much of the extended period. 


&& 


Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/... 
tonight through Friday night...VFR. Southeast sea breezes will kick 
in at Logan Airport around 15z today and switch to the south this 
evening. Sea breezes should develop once again middle-morning Friday. 


Outlook... 
Sat...VFR. 
Sun...VFR. 
Monday...scattered thunderstorms with MVFR. 
Tuesday...VFR. 


&& 


Marine... 
tonight through Friday night...tranquil with sustained winds 10 
knots or less and seas less than 3 feet. 


Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... 


High pressure dominates Sat and sun. Generally light S/SW winds and 
flat seas. Patchy late night fog possible. 


Approaching cold front Sun night and Monday will increase SW winds a 
bit which in turn will gradually build seas...especially on outer 
waters. However winds are expected to remain below 25kt with seas 
no higher than 4 feet offshore. This is a little below wavewatch. 


High pressure builds back over waters Tuesday with light winds and 
diminishing seas. 


&& 


Box watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Rhode Island...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...Belk/jwd 
near term...Belk 
short term...Belk 
long term...jwd 
aviation...Belk/jwd 
marine...Belk/jwd