056 
fxca62 tjsj 061930 
afdsju 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Juan PR 
330 PM AST Monday Oct 6 2008 


Discussion...an upper level low (tutt) just northeast of Puerto 
Rico late this afternoon is producing an area of subsidence from the 
eastern part of Hispaniola and the Mona Passage eastward to the 
U.S. Virgin Islands this afternoon. The proximity of this system 
to the local islands will continue to promote favorable upper 
level dynamic...enhancing the shower activity across the region 
especially during the afternoons over the next few days. A low 
level trough associated with the TUTT low to our northeast...will 
continue to move slowly westward across the forecast area late this afternoon 
and this evening. These features will promote the continuation of 
a light and variable low level wind flow across the region for the 
next few days. This flow...mainly from the east today...will 
become Moe from southeast tonight and tomorrow. This change in 
the low level wind flow will bring an increase in tropical 
moisture...associated with a weak tropical wave across the Lesser 
Antilles this afternoon. The upper low (tutt) is forecast to drift 
westward over the next few days while weakening. As this TUTT low 
move away from the forecast area...an upper trough will prevail just to the 
east of the local islands through the next weekend...maintaining a 
relatively moist weather pattern across the region. However...no 
widespread precipitation is expected at this time. 


Global models continue to be aggressive in the intensification of 
a tropical wave that was over western Africa coast late this 
afternoon. However...the same global models move the developed 
system to the north across the open Atlantic waters. Will continue 
to monitor this system as oceanic conditions across the tropical 
Atlantic remain favorable for tropical cyclone formation during 
the next several weeks. 


&& 


Aviation...mostly VFR conditions are expected across tncm and tkpk 
tonight...while brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible across 
tist at least until 00z...as a few rain showers...moves across this taf 
site. Brief periods of MVFR conditions are also expected across tjmz 
and tjbq...as scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms moves 
across these sections. However...in general no significant weather 
related hazards are expected across the local taf sites during the 
next 24 hours. Latest tjsj 12z sounding indicated a light 
northeasterly wind flow from the surface to around 10k feet... 
becoming northwesterly and stronger above that level. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
sju 77 88 77 88 / 20 40 30 40 
stt 78 87 78 87 / 40 50 40 40 


&& 


Sju watches/warnings/advisories... 
PR...none. 
Vi...none. 
&& 


$$ 


10/72/