Willow Grove, Pennsylvania
National Weather Service: Areal Flood Watch
Current Conditions
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Almanac
Average High: 48°
Average Low: 32°
Record high/year: 80° (1990)
Record low/year: 10° (1984)
Sunrise: 6:16 AM
Sunset: 6:04 PM
Detailed History
Sun and Moon
Sunrise: 06:16 AM (EST)
Moon Rise: 04:33 AM (EST)
Sunset: 06:04 PM (EST)
Moon Set: 03:16 PM (EST)
Moon Phase
Air Pollution
Air Pollution Forecast for Philadelphia
| Current | Air Quality: Moderate | Pollutant: PM2.5 |
| Fri | Air Quality: Good | Pollutant: PM2.5 |
| Sat | Air Quality: Good | Pollutant: PM2.5 |
| Sun | Air Quality: Good | Pollutant: PM2.5 |
Next 12 Hours
Chance of Rain
Chance of Rain
Rain
Rain
Rain
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database
5-Day Forecast
Hi 52°
Lo 43°
Rain
Hi 56°
Lo 43°
Rain
Hi 52°
Lo 40°
Rain Showers
Hi 54°
Lo 38°
Chance of Rain
Hi 54°
Lo 36°
Partly Cloudy
Forecast for Montgomery
Flood Watch in effect from this evening through Sunday morning...
Rest of Tonight
Cloudy with a chance of light rain and drizzle. Lows in the lower 40s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Friday
Periods of rain. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs in the lower 50s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Friday Night
Periods of rain. Breezy with lows in the lower 40s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Saturday
Periods of rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Breezy with highs in the mid 50s. Northeast winds around 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Saturday Night
Periods of rain. Rain may be heavy at times in the evening. Breezy with lows in the lower 40s. East winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Sunday
Showers likely. Highs in the lower 50s. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Sunday Night
Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 30s.
Monday
Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs in the mid 50s.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy in the evening...then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s.
Thursday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s.
Areal Flood Watch
Statement as of 3:44 PM EST on March 11, 2010
... Flood Watch in effect from Friday evening through Sunday
morning...
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a
* Flood Watch for portions of Delaware... northeast Maryland...
New Jersey and Pennsylvania... including the following areas...
in Delaware... Delaware beaches... inland Sussex... Kent and New
Castle. In northeast Maryland... Caroline... Cecil... Kent MD...
Queen Annes and Talbot. In New Jersey... Atlantic... Atlantic
coastal Cape May... Camden... Cape May... coastal Atlantic...
coastal ocean... Cumberland... eastern Monmouth... Gloucester...
Hunterdon... Mercer... Middlesex... Morris... northwestern
Burlington... ocean... Salem... Somerset... southeastern
Burlington... Sussex... Warren and western Monmouth. In
Pennsylvania... Berks... Bucks... Carbon... Chester... Delaware...
Lehigh... Monroe... Montgomery... Northampton and Philadelphia.
* From Friday evening through Sunday morning
A complex storm system will be affecting the region through
Sunday. An area of low pressure over the central portion of the
nation will move eastward through Saturday. A second low pressure
system is then expected to form near the North Carolina/Virginia
border and move generally northward Saturday into Sunday.
The combination of all of these low pressure systems will bring
rain to the area beginning on Friday. The rain will become
steadier and heavier Friday night into Saturday as the second low
approaches the region.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are anticipated with
this storm. Local amounts up to 5 inches are possible, especially
in those locations that receive the heaviest rain.
Given this amount of rain, small streams and possibly mainstem
rivers will reach flood stage. Smaller streams will respond first
to the rainfall followed by the larger rivers. Flooding could
begin as soon as late Friday night along fast responding creeks,
while the larger, slower responding rivers, could see flooding
persist into early next week. These rainfall amounts also have the
potential to cause flooding of roadways and poor drainage areas.
If you are traveling, please allow extra time to reach your
destination. In addition to any flooding, heavy rain can cause
reduced visibilities. Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or
your favorite media outlet for further updates and any possible
warnings. People who live near rivers or streams that are prone to
flooding should be on heightened alert and should be prepared to
take action if flooding develops.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Personal Weather Stations
Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]
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Location: Roslyn, Abington, PA Updated: 12:54 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 43.5 °F | Dew Point: 43 °F | Humidity: 98% | Wind: ENE at 3.1 mph | Pressure: 30.03 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 42 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: North Hills, Abington, PA Updated: 12:54 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 43.7 °F | Dew Point: 41 °F | Humidity: 91% | Wind: East at 4.0 mph | Pressure: 30.02 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 42 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: HorshamWeather.Com, Horsham, PA Updated: 12:54 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 43.4 °F | Dew Point: 41 °F | Humidity: 91% | Wind: Calm | Pressure: 30.02 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 43 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: Bryn Athyn, Huntingdon Valley, PA Updated: 12:54 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 42.9 °F | Dew Point: 42 °F | Humidity: 96% | Wind: East at 8.0 mph | Pressure: 30.10 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 38 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: APRSWXNET Glenside PA US, Oreland, PA Updated: 12:31 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 44 °F | Dew Point: 43 °F | Humidity: 95% | Wind: ENE at 1 mph | Pressure: 30.04 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 44 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: Beth Ayres/High Road, Huntingdon Valley, PA Updated: 12:50 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 44.1 °F | Dew Point: 43 °F | Humidity: 95% | Wind: ENE at 1.0 mph | Pressure: 30.06 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 44 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: Steeplechase Circle, Horsham, PA Updated: 12:54 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 43.5 °F | Dew Point: 42 °F | Humidity: 95% | Wind: ENE at 4.0 mph | Pressure: 30.02 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 41 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: Stover Street, Warwick Twp(Bucks Co), PA Updated: 12:54 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 43.4 °F | Dew Point: 42 °F | Humidity: 96% | Wind: NE at 2.3 mph | Pressure: 30.05 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 43 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: Greystone, Ambler, PA Updated: 12:49 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 44.4 °F | Dew Point: 38 °F | Humidity: 77% | Wind: Calm | Pressure: 30.07 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 44 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: APRSWXNET Erdenheim PA US, Philadelphia, PA Updated: 12:28 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 44 °F | Dew Point: 44 °F | Humidity: 100% | Wind: ENE at 4 mph | Pressure: 30.03 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 42 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: Warrington, Warrington, PA Updated: 12:43 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 42.3 °F | Dew Point: 41 °F | Humidity: 94% | Wind: NNE at 6.0 mph | Pressure: 30.02 in | Hourly Precipitation: - | Windchill: 39 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: Richboro, PA Updated: 12:54 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 42.2 °F | Dew Point: 41 °F | Humidity: 95% | Wind: East at 4.6 mph | Pressure: 30.05 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 39 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: Woodfield Estates, Jamison, PA Updated: 12:54 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 43.0 °F | Dew Point: 42 °F | Humidity: 96% | Wind: NE at 5.0 mph | Pressure: 30.01 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 40 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: Philadelphia NE / Torresdale, Philadelphia, PA Updated: 12:49 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 43.9 °F | Dew Point: 42 °F | Humidity: 94% | Wind: ENE at 4.0 mph | Pressure: 30.03 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 42 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: APRSWXNET Furlong PA US, Furlong, PA Updated: 12:30 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 42 °F | Dew Point: 41 °F | Humidity: 97% | Wind: NE at 4 mph | Pressure: 30.02 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 40 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: APRSWXNET Phila PA US, Philadelphia, PA Updated: 12:20 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 44 °F | Dew Point: 43 °F | Humidity: 98% | Wind: SE at 3 mph | Pressure: 30.00 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 44 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: Furlong, PA Updated: 12:50 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 42.0 °F | Dew Point: 41 °F | Humidity: 97% | Wind: ENE at 4.0 mph | Pressure: 30.03 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 40 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: Doylestown Twp (Pebble Hill Rd), Doylestown, PA Updated: 12:54 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 43.4 °F | Dew Point: 42 °F | Humidity: 94% | Wind: ESE at 1.6 mph | Pressure: 30.24 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 43 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: Furlong (Cloverly), Furlong, PA Updated: 12:48 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 42.7 °F | Dew Point: 42 °F | Humidity: 96% | Wind: Calm | Pressure: 30.05 in | Hourly Precipitation: - | Windchill: 43 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: Cambridge Knoll, Lansdale, PA Updated: 12:54 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 43.5 °F | Dew Point: 39 °F | Humidity: 84% | Wind: Calm | Pressure: 30.15 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 44 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: Port Richmond (JcWeather), Philadelphia, PA Updated: 12:48 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 48.0 °F | Dew Point: 45 °F | Humidity: 89% | Wind: NE at 9.0 mph | Pressure: 29.94 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 44 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: Shadow Ridge, Chalfont, PA Updated: 12:50 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 42.6 °F | Dew Point: 41 °F | Humidity: 95% | Wind: ESE at 6.0 mph | Pressure: 30.02 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 39 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: Palmyra, NJ Updated: 12:02 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 45.1 °F | Dew Point: 42 °F | Humidity: 89% | Wind: East at 3.0 mph | Pressure: 29.96 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 45 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: Silversmythe, Chalfont, PA Updated: 12:54 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 43.3 °F | Dew Point: 42 °F | Humidity: 97% | Wind: ESE at 1.0 mph | Pressure: 29.99 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 43 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: Newtown, PA Updated: 12:54 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 42.2 °F | Dew Point: 41 °F | Humidity: 94% | Wind: NE at 6.9 mph | Pressure: 29.99 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 38 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: APRSWXNET Newtown PA US, Newtown, PA Updated: 12:29 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 43 °F | Dew Point: 41 °F | Humidity: 94% | Wind: East at 3 mph | Pressure: 30.00 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 43 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: Towamencin, Towamencin, PA Updated: 12:39 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 45.3 °F | Dew Point: 43 °F | Humidity: 91% | Wind: ESE at 5.8 mph | Pressure: 30.03 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 42 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: HADS SCHUYLKILL RIVER AT NORRISTOWN PA US, Bridgeport, PA Updated: 11:30 PM EST |
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| Temperature: °F | Dew Point: - | Humidity: - | Wind: Calm | Pressure: - | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: - | Historical Graphs |
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Location: Line Lexington, Line Lexington, PA Updated: 12:54 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 43.2 °F | Dew Point: 42 °F | Humidity: 96% | Wind: East at 8.0 mph | Pressure: 29.97 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 38 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: APRSWXNET Levittown PA US, Levittown, PA Updated: 12:34 AM EST |
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| Temperature: 44 °F | Dew Point: 43 °F | Humidity: 96% | Wind: ENE at 3 mph | Pressure: 29.94 in | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: 44 °F | Historical Graphs |
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Location: HADS SCHUYLKILL RVR AT FAIRMOUNT DAM PA US, Philadelphia, PA Updated: 12:00 AM EST |
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| Temperature: °F | Dew Point: - | Humidity: - | Wind: Calm | Pressure: - | Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in | Windchill: - | Historical Graphs |
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MSN Maps of: |
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| Temperature | Dew Point | Humidity | Wind | Pressure | Hourly Precipitation | - | |
NWS Forecaster Discussion
857 fxus61 kphi 120147 afdphi Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey 847 PM EST Thursday Mar 11 2010 Synopsis... an area of low pressure near the middle Mississippi Valley will meander around through Friday night before gradually moving more eastward. Meanwhile, a secondary low pressure system is forecast to develop along a frontal boundary near the middle Atlantic coast late Friday night and Saturday. This system will then meander in our area through the weekend before gradually moving out to sea later Sunday and Monday. High pressure will then gradually build toward our area Tuesday through Thursday, although a weak cold front may slide through late Tuesday. && Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/... a 00z surface analysis placed a warm front from the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia region to Northern Ohio then westward to low pressure in Iowa. A cold front was draped from this low down through the Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, high pressure was anchored just north of Maine. An upper air analysis showed a potent closed low west of the upper Mississippi Valley, which is clearly seen on water vapor imagery. A potent short wave was located in south central Texas. A cyclonically curved 300 mb jet was from The Four Corners region to the Gulf Coast states then into the Tennessee Valley. There was 850 mb warm air advection analyzed from the Ohio Valley southward to the Gulf Coast states. A weak short wave is forecast to weaken the midlevel ridge tonight as it crosses our area. There will be at least some warm air advection and moisture advection continuing through the night, although the overall lift is not that strong or organized. The continued moistening of the low levels is expected to result in a wealth of cloudiness tonight. The moisture return/push has been somewhat weak today, but enough to keep a good amount of low clouds across most of the County Warning Area. This should tend to expand and lower some more as we go through the night. Coupled with a continuing onshore flow, this should develop some upslope precipitation across our County Warning Area. This looks rather light, therefore will go with patchy drizzle starting late this evening, then bring in the slight chance to chance probability of precipitation from south to north. Some stronger lift is expected to near the southwestern part of the County Warning Area toward daybreak, therefore will bring in likely probability of precipitation late overnight. Any quantitative precipitation forecast tonight is expected to be on the light side. Given the upslope flow and model soundings showing plenty of moisture below 5,000 feet, we maintained the mention of patchy fog in the northwestern part of the County Warning Area later tonight. The fog across eastern New Jersey has remained somewhat patchy and light, but somewhat more dense fog formed over the southern Delaware-Maryland-Virginia near the warm front. This may affect some of our Delaware-Maryland-Virginia region, and it was added to the forecast prior to the onset of rain. As for temperatures, with the clouds and rising dew points the NAM MOS looks a bit too cool in some areas, therefore we went closer to the GFS MOS for most locales. && Short term /6 am Friday morning through Sunday/... a rather active period is expected during the bulk of this time frame as a moderate to heavy rain event looks likely to move through. The heaviest rain looks to fall during Saturday. We continue to see a flood potential this weekend, therefore see the hydrology section for the complete details as a Flood Watch is being issued this afternoon. An expansive closed upper-level low meandering around the middle Mississippi Valley will gradually slide eastward Saturday through Sunday. Due to the slow eastward propagation of this feature, an abundance of moisture will be drawn northward into our area. This moisture advection will be enhanced by a strong east to southeasterly low-level jet and increasing precipitable water values. As the midlevel ridge axis slides to our east tonight, the warm air advection and isentropic lift will increase some. In addition, a deep southeasterly flow will be an upslope component which should tend to begin squeezing out the deepening moisture. The slower arrival of the more widespread precipitation continues with the majority of the model guidance, which does seem logical given the strength of the closed low and its slow eastward progression. As a result, the probability of precipitation will ramp up for Friday. The rain is expected to increase in intensity some through Friday, however the heaviest amounts are expected to wait until the strongest forcing arrives. Speaking of forcing, a rather robust low to middle level wind field within a warm air advection/moisture advection regime will allow for strong vertical velocities to overspread the entire area later Friday night and especially Saturday. This will be in conjunction with a surface low developing in the vicinity of the southern middle Atlantic and then moving northward during Saturday. As heights fall and there is some diffluence aloft, the vertical velocities will respond by increasing. In addition, a belt of strong frontogenetic forcing is forecast to move from south to north across our County Warning Area during mostly Saturday as strong positive vorticity advection arrives in conjunction with the strongest wind field and warm air advection. This all points to moderate to heavy rain marching across the County Warning Area. The frontogenesis from 850 mb to 700 mb suggests that there may be bands of heavier rain elements within a larger rain shield. This is where the highest rainfall rates may occur. The strengthening wind field will allow for breezy to windy conditions to develop later Friday night and Saturday, however given the warm air advection the strongest winds should remain above the surface. It should be noted that there are differences in the positioning and strength of the secondary surface low developing in the middle Atlantic Friday night through Saturday. In addition, the midlevel low has been meandering around in the guidance as it moves eastward, and this is probably due to the amount of short wave energy revolving around it. Keeping all of this in mind, introduces some uncertainty on where the heaviest rainfall axis sets up. Overall though, there is a heightened potential for excessive rainfall over our County Warning Area. There does not appear to be much in the way of instability being advected into our cwa, although our Delaware-Maryland-Virginia counties could be close Saturday /especially is some sort of a dry slot works in/. Given the lower probability/confidence of thunder attm, we decided to not include it for now. As the large closed low moves across our area during the weekend, the strongest lift and wind field is pushed to the north. This will take the plume of strong moisture advection/lift and shove it northward. However, there may be some comma head rain wrapping back around our County Warning Area Saturday night and even through Sunday. Overall, the trend of lighter rainfall is anticipated Saturday night and especially Sunday as the rain transitions to showers. As for temperatures, there could be challenges with this given the strong warm air advection that will be aimed into our area for especially Saturday. Meanwhile, a surface high up across northern New England will try and push some cooler air into our region /perhaps even some low-level drying/. The MOS guidance seems to have trended cooler across a good part of our cwa, but did not want to go fully toward this especially across central and southern areas. As a result, we generally took a blend of the GFS/NAM MOS as a compromise for most locales. && Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/... HPC has gone with a forecast that depends heavily on the European model (ecmwf) early and that incorporates the European model (ecmwf) ensembles late. This has the stacking low pressure system that likely will cause US some problems through the short term slowly exiting our area in the Sunday night to Monday time frame. The precipitation type in the northwest as this system exits still does not look as if it will be a significant issue. After that, it appears that we will have weak high pressure at the surface punctuated by some dry troughs or cold fronts thanks to an eastern Canadian vortex at middle levels. If this comes to pass /and model consensus is fairly good/, we eventually will see some welcome drying with tolerable winds. Temperatures through the period are forecast to remain above normal, although not quite as mild as they have been recently. && Aviation /02z Friday through Tuesday/... the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas. A little piece of vorticity moved through Delaware earlier this morning...and the resultant showers there have dissipated. Also, the early morning stratus and fog...densest and lowest toward the New Jersey coast...lifted by middle morning. However, the lower atmosphere continues to Load up with moisture with the persistent onshore flow...and deterioration was already trying to happen early this afternoon as stratocumulus was forming around the area and lowering. Secondary low pressure developing off the southeast coast later tonight will Stem from the main low in the upper Mississippi Valley. However, a warm front appears to emanate from the main low and extend eastward north of the developing secondary during tonight, just south of our area. It appears that this will serve to stimulate mild upward vertical motion and enhance rain chances later tonight. The upshot is that ceilings and visibilities are forecast to lower to IFR conditions in stratus and developing fog and drizzle during this evening, or by 05z /midnight/. IFR weather is expected to continue Friday, with rain possibly becoming steadier and heavier for Friday afternoon, at least according to GFS Omega fields and precipitation output. Outlook... widespread IFR conditions with periods of rain and fog will continue across the area Friday night and on into the weekend. Low level wind shear may occur late Friday night and into Saturday with a decent low level jet expected. Slight improvement may develop Sunday but showers will be likely. The responsible low pressure area is forecast to move away during Monday. && Marine... marine conditions will continue to be sub-advisory tonight. However, winds and seas are still expected to increase Friday with the approach of low pressure, which will contrast with a strong high in eastern Canada. Winds and seas will build further Friday night, Saturday, and into Saturday night. The Small Craft Advisory will be continued for Friday at this time. However, as the winds just off the surface are projected to increase to over 50 knots later Friday night and Saturday, and into Saturday evening north, concern grows about the need for a gale headline. NAM 1000 hpa winds are not quite as strong as the GFS, but there could be 35 to 40 knots gusts making it down to the surface /35 knots on the NAM/, especially north. Since winds will be increasing in our third period, a gale watch will be issued with this package for the ocean waters and lower Delaware Bay. The Upper Bay will be left in the Small Craft Advisory, which will be extended through Saturday evening. Wind speeds look to diminish for a time Sunday with the proximity of the low, but are likely to increase again for Sunday night and Monday as the low begins moving away. && Hydrology... predicted rainfall, Friday through early Sunday, remains pretty much the same as 24 hours ago. A widespread 2 to 4 inches looks likely across the hsa. Higher amounts remain possible. A Flood Watch is being issued. With these numbers, both smaller streams and larger rivers will experience flooding this weekend into early next week. Streamflow is already running high across southeast PA, so they don't need the snowmelt to flood. On the other hand, rivers like the Delaware will need the snowmelt to flood, and in this case, it appears a portion of the heavy rain will fall across the headwater snowpack, which is three times normal for this time of year. So in very general terms, 1 to 2 inches of widespread rainfall will cause minor flooding across the smaller streams, creeks and rivers across the Passaic, Raritan, and Delaware basins, with little or no flooding along the mainstem rivers /Lehigh, Schuylkill, Delaware/. 2.0 to 3.5 inches would cause moderate flooding along these same smaller creeks and streams, with some minor flooding possible along the mainstem rivers, especially the Schuylkill. 3.5 to 5.0 inches of rainfall, both locally and over the existing snowpack in the north, would cause widespread moderate flooding, with minor flooding along the mainstem Delaware. A smattering of major flooding cannot be ruled out either. The Lehigh Valley has been a bit drier over the last 30, 60, and 90 days, and for this reason can tolerate a little more water than adjacent basins. && Tides/coastal flooding... the approaching and intensifying with its persistent onshore flow, along with the approaching new moon, will contribute to higher than normal tides Friday and through the weekend. The best time for problems will be with the strongest onshore flow, which is Saturday night and into early Sunday. Current projections from the aviation storm surge guidance show tide heights just under moderate tidal flooding levels for our northern shore areas in New Jersey...north of Atlantic City. Since this will be in our fourth period, it was decided to refrain from issuing a coastal Flood Watch at this time due to the lack of confidence in achieving moderate flooding, as well as the luxury of having some time. Since it is too early for a coastal Flood Advisory, the wording in the hazardous weather outlook will be enhanced a bit. && Phi watches/warnings/advisories... PA...Flood Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for paz054-055-060>062-067>071. New Jersey...Flood Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for njz001-007>010-012>027. Delaware...Flood Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for dez001>004. Maryland...Flood Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for mdz008-012-015-019-020. Marine...gale watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for anz431-450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 10 am to 9 PM EST Friday for anz431- 450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to midnight EST Saturday night for anz430. && $$ Synopsis...gorse near term...gorse/delisi short term...gorse long term...delisi aviation.../ marine.../ hydrology...kruzdlo tides/coastal flooding.../