588 
fxus61 kbgm 040549 
afdbgm 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York 
149 am EDT Friday Jul 4 2008 


Synopsis... 
showers will continue to diminish tonight across the twin tiers as 
a cold front pushes south. Scattered showers will remain over the 
Wyoming and Lackawanna valleys through most of the night before 
dissipating. A brief period of rain-free conditions will be with 
US on Friday...before the aforementioned frontal zone slowly 
approaches from the south as a warm front over the weekend. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be back in the forecast 
on Saturday and Sunday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am this morning/... 
as of 1045 PM... 
front continues its snails pace south...located approx from Albany 
through Binghamton and Corning. Winds behind the front have shifted 
to the north per kbgm vwp. Not a whole lot of push to this front 
at present time and expect it to stall overnight just south of forecast area. 
Precipitation continues to ride northeast along boundary through the northern tier 
and points south as weak waves embedded in upper flow rotate through. 


One particular WV will likely mv through around 09z...bringing an end 
to showers over southeast zones. WV evident on regional radars over western PA 
and is also being picked up on latest RUC guidance. Have kept hichc 
probability of precipitation in across nepa as rain is not as widespread as earlier. Probability of precipitation 
diminish after 06z to isolated-lochc before coming to an end. 


Clrng line is working in quick from the northwest. Dewpoints upstream are not 
dropping off very quick as dry advection lags significantly behind. 
Fairly light flow behind front coupled with rain-soaked ground and clrng 
skies will lead to a good chance for fog overnight across central New York. 
Thus...have included areas of fog after midnight from the southern tier 
north where clearing will likely occur. Have kept fog more patchy in 
nature across nepa where stalling frontal boundary will keep clouds 
over the area through daybreak. 


Min temperature forecast of l/M 50s still looks to be in good shape and have 
not changed overnight mins. Minor tweaks made to hrly T/dew point fields as 
well as sky cover. Updated grids and text products are on the 
street. 


Previous discussion... 
progressive band of showers and embedded thunderstorms will be 
through much of central New York by 7 or 8 PM...then slowly push further 
south tonight...probably exiting the forecast area after midnight. 


Skies should begin to clear late tonight for The Finger 
lakes...Mohawk Valley...and southern Tug Hill regions...with 
clouds lingering elsewhere. 


&& 


Short term /6 am this morning through Sunday night/... 
it now appears that much of Friday will be rain-free...as a 
frontal zone pushes far enough south to allow drier air and 
increasing sunshine to prevail. 


However...by later Friday night...and then right through the rest 
of the upcoming weekend...the aforementioned front will stall 
out...then begin to creep back northward as a warm front. Although 
the front itself should weaken with time...the passage of 
occasional upper-level waves...along with a slow increase in low- 
level dew points...should be sufficient to produce at least hit 
and miss showers. It certainly should not be a wash out...but some 
shower activity will probably occur for much of the 
region...especially across northeast PA. 


&& 


Long term /Monday through Thursday/... 
unsettled weather continues through the period as a flat...broad upper trough lingers 
over eastern Canada and the NE US. Weak ripples moving through. This 
will keep a chance of showers and trws pretty much through the period. Best 
chance is Tuesday PM with a cold front. Generally flwd HPC guidance as 
it seemed rsnbl given the pattern. 


&& 


Aviation /06z Friday through Tuesday/... 
showers only affecting avp now. The early morning will have 
everything from VFR to LIFR in fog. Clearing line working into ith 
and Elm...while rme and syr are scattered to sky clear. Big question this am 
is the fog at all sites and the low clouds at avp. With the skies 
clearing and the rain yesterday Elm should go to LIFR in dense 
valley fog. Ith has fallen to 1sm now. It could drop to LIFR also. 
Syr...rme and bgm should just fall to MVFR visibilities but still VFR 
now. Avp ceilings have fallen to MVFR. Clearing to make it there by 
12z so visibilities should fall to MVFR as ceilings return to VFR. 


14z on conditions to return to VFR everywhere. Some cumulus with 
afternoon showers expected at kavp. 


Light to calm winds early this morning to become northwest at around 6 
kts during the daylight then back to light to calm tonight. 




Outlook... 


Saturday through Monday...expect some afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms and rain each 
day at avp with MVFR and occasional IFR restrictions possible...with 
much lower chances for the New York state terminals. 


Tuesday...afternoon rain showers/thunderstorms and rain possible all sites with localized 
MVFR/IFR restrictions. 


Sun/Mon/tues mornings appear favorable for fog formation at Elm 
with IFR restrictions possible. 


&& 


Bgm watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...pvb 
near term...pvb 
short term...mlj 
long term...dgm/tac 
aviation...tac