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fxus61 kpbz 110522 
afdpbz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 
122 am EDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Synopsis... 


Dry and warm weather will continue through early next week. 


&& 


Near term /through today/... 


Building eastern ridge and deep surface high will keep the area dry 
and temperatures above normal. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through Monday/... 


Surface ridge and surface high will keep the area dry through the short 
term. Temperatures will remain above normal. 


&& 


Long term /Monday night through Friday/... 


Some timing issues early in the long term. Ridge begins to break 
down allowing surface front to push eastward. Front loses much of its 
punch and moisture as it runs into flattening ridge. May see a 
shower Tuesday night...but timing will likely change. 


High pressure builds back in late Wednesday and will keep area dry for 
the remainder of the extended. 


&& 


Aviation /05z Saturday through Wednesday/... 


Judging from recent sref model runs and NAM profiles expect 
predominately VFR into at least Tuesday with the only possibility of 
sub-VFR conditions this period coming with patchy early morning fog. 


For this morning have forecasted brief MVFR visibilities near some 
river valleys due to strong radiational cooling although most NAM 
profiles maintain a fairly large temperature dew point spread in the 
surface layer. 


Skies should remain clear today. Winds will be nearly calm into 
early morning then become easterly 5-8 kts. 


Blend of recent sref and gefs model runs show a upper Midwest cold 
front may bring showers to the upper Ohio Valley Tuesday night into 
Wednesday that may result in scattered MVFR. 


&& 


Pbz watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
Ohio...none. 
PA...none. 
WV...none. 


&& 


$$