994 
fxus61 kbgm 030804 
afdbgm 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York 
304 am EST Wednesday Dec 3 2008 


Synopsis... 
a low pressure storm system will track across lower Ontario 
tonight, and drag a cold front across the region on Thursday. This 
will cause a mix of rain and snow showers, to spread across New York and PA 
late tonight into Thursday. 
&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
few changes to near term as forecast appears on track. Clouds are 
clearing out on schedule, and warm air advection is already 
evident in observation. Will forecast temperatures near 40f across central and 
eastern fa, and lower to middle 40s to the west. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday night/... 
brought precipitation in a little quicker than previously forecast, as 
NAM and GFS are in good agreement regarding timing. They both 
appear to be initialized fairly well too. Precipitation should arrive in 
the western forecast area around 9z, and spread into our southeastern 
counties by 15z. 


The main question with this system is rain vs. Snow. Will stick to 
a mix forecast for early Thursday, then switch over to all snow 
showers behind cold front. 


Thursday night winds align off of Lake Ontario to produce a 
possibly potent snow band into the Tug Hill region. This band is 
forecast to be over northern Oneida County early Friday morning, 
and could produce a good amount of snow in a short period of time. 
However the duration is questionable, as nam12 wants to push the 
band north of our County Warning Area by middle morning. 


This northward movement may be a bit aggressive, but it does 
provide enough uncertainty that we do not feel comfortable with 
issuing a flag this early. We will mention potential in severe weather potential statement. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... 
eastern trough with cold temperatures expected to remain through the weekend 
before upper ridge and surface high build eastward early next week 
with modifying trend. Lake effect snow should wind down early in 
the period, before another chance of light synoptic snow with weak 
surface low approaching from the Great Lakes later Saturday into 
Sunday. Some lake effect will follow this system, before drying 
and high pressure arrive early next week. 


&& 


Aviation /08z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
gnrly VFR with no sig weather next 24 hours. Xcptn at bgm and maybe ith 
with MVFR ceilings overnight. After 12z...expect VFR and hi scattered to broken clouds 
through the end of the period. 


Winds mainly southwesterly around 5 kts tonight...5-10 kts Wednesday...around 10 
kts Wednesday night. 


Outlook... 




Thursday...MVFR/IFR with shsn in morning...improving VFR during PM. Chance Lake 
effect snow showers impacting syr-rme with IFR late in day. 


Thursday ngt/Fri...VFR. Chance localized MVFR/IFR in lake effect snow 
showers...especially rme and syr. 


Saturday...MVFR/IFR. Chance snow showers later in the day. 


Sunday...MVFR. Chance snow showers. 


&& 


Bgm watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...djp 
near term...djp 
short term...djp 
long term...jml 
aviation...dgm