056 
fxus66 kmfr 211205 
afdmfr 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Medford or 
405 am PST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Discussion...a few showers will linger across the higher terrain 
of the forecast area this morning but the trend is for brief 
drying this afternoon. By early evening another Pacific front will 
move into the coastal waters. First the warm front will bring 
gusty south winds to the coast tonight. Both the NAM and GFS show 
boundary layer winds to be in the 40 to 50 miles per hour range. As a result 
have issued a high wind watch at the coast. The strongest winds 
should occur between 10pm and midnight tonight. Farther east 
southwest winds will also pick up ahead of the front. Part of 
Highway 31 running from Paisley to Summer Lake in Lake County is 
expected to see another round of gusty winds and Wind Advisory may 
be needed later. Guidance also indicates increasing winds in the 
Shasta Valley this evening although wind direction does not appear 
as conducive to the speed reaching warning criteria. 


The cold front will move into southwest Oregon this evening with 
precipitation spreading into the Rogue Valley in the early 
evening. Steady precipitation is expected to be overnight tonight 
and through Sunday morning. Southerly wind ahead of the front 
could delay cold air from filtering into Klamath Falls but by late 
tonight the front is expected to bring cold air into the east 
side. If the current quantitative precipitation forecast forecast holds...we may need a Snow 
Advisory for northern Klamath County from Diamond Lake Junction 
north through Chemult. By Sunday afternoon precipitation should 
taper off to showers and be confined mainly in upslope area and 
higher terrain. 


The latest GFS and European model (ecmwf) continues with the drying trend for most 
of next week as the storm track shifts north. The European model (ecmwf) brings the 
next cold front inland on Thanksgiving but the GFS holds the front 
offshore before bringing the front inland during that night. Have 
introduced a chance probability of precipitation for Thanksgiving day but confidence on 
timing is not very high. 




&& 


Aviation...widespread MVFR at the coast this evening through 
tonight in frequent moderate rain. Winds along the coast will also 
be very strong overnight with low level wind shear possible. MVFR ceilings and visible 
spread inland and are more likely after 06z tonight. Higher mountains 
will be obscured overnight. 




&& 


Mfr watches/warnings/advisories... 
or...high wind watch from this afternoon through late tonight for 
orz021-orz022. 


California...none. 


Pacific coastal waters...Small Craft Advisory for winds from 10 am 
this morning to 1 PM PST this afternoon for pzz350-pzz356- 
pzz370-pzz376. 
Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 am PST Sunday for 
pzz356-pzz376. 
Hazardous seas warning until 4 PM PST Sunday for pzz350-pzz356- 
pzz370-pzz376. 
Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 am PST Sunday for 
pzz350-pzz370. 
Gale Warning from 1 PM to 4 PM PST this afternoon for pzz350- 
pzz370. 


$$ 


08/99/99