974 
fxus64 ktsa 210844 
afdtsa 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK 
244 am CST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Discussion... 
forecast area remains under widespread stratus deck...along with 
areas of light rain/drizzle and fog. Fog has been dense at times 
across parts of northwest Arkansas...and will continue to keep an eye on 
trends...but not expecting a dense fog advisory at this time. 
Low-level moisture is forecast to slowly mix out/dry later today 
per point soundings...so should see some breaks in the low clouds 
this afternoon. Have kept probability of precipitation on the low side...mainly for some 
patchy light rain across southeast OK and western Arkansas. 


The Texas upper low will push east through the Gulf Coast states later 
this weekend...with another fast moving wave zipping across the 
region on Sunday. Low-level moisture doesn't look too impressive 
with this system...and will keep probability of precipitation out for now. 


Next significant upper system will organize over the northern rockies and 
drop into the Central Plains as a closed low early next week. Will 
continue to lean toward the slower European model (ecmwf)/NAM solution...although the 
00z GFS is trending slower than previous runs. Accordingly...expect 
a frontal passage Monday night...along with marginal chances of 
convection. Cooler Pacific airmass will overspread the area by 
midweek...which should keep temperatures running near or a little below 
seasonal norms. Could see a more widespread freeze by Thanksgiving 
morning...primarily north of Interstate 40. A gradual warming trend 
is expected going into next weekend. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
tul 62 45 64 47 / 10 10 10 10 
fsm 63 46 65 46 / 20 10 10 10 
mlc 62 43 66 48 / 20 10 10 10 
bvo 61 41 65 42 / 10 10 10 10 
fyv 59 40 64 42 / 20 10 10 10 
byv 60 43 62 44 / 10 10 10 10 
mko 62 44 65 46 / 20 10 10 10 
Mio 61 45 65 45 / 10 10 10 10 
f10 61 44 65 46 / 20 10 10 10 
hhw 59 42 65 49 / 20 10 10 0 


&& 


Tsa watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...none. 
Arkansas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...21 
long term....18