947 
fxus61 Kiln 211726 
afdiln 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio 
1226 PM EST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will slowly move off to the northeast...but continue 
to extend back into the Ohio Valley through early next week. A 
cold front will approach the area from the west on Tuesday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
stratus deck NE of forecast area will hang tough as center of the high 
pressure system settles over Ohio this afternoon...keeping the 
axis of cooler air along a northwest/southeast bisection of the state. Area of 
stratus running from cincy metropolitan area northwest into Richmond and ecntl 
Indiana should erode fairly quickly this morning as the atmosphere 
mixes a bit. 


High temperatures were close to the thickness supported at 21z from the 
NAM this morning so there were little changes other than to tweak 
cloud cover and lower dewpoints over much of County Warning Area. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/... 
high pressure will move off to the northeast with the ridge axis 
still lingering into the region through Monday. Initial short 
wave lifting out of the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday will 
stay suppressed well south of the forecast area. Subsequent short 
wave on Monday will be further north. This combined with return 
flow on the backside of the surface ridge could result in a few 
showers Monday into Monday night. At this point only felt slight 
chance probability of precipitation were warranted. Generally went slightly below guidance 
for lows tonight and Sunday night but then clouds should keep 
readings warmer Monday night. Highs will be several degrees above 
normal both Sunday and Monday. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Friday/... 
00z GFS...gefs and Canadian were in good agreement with the 
progression of the next cold front with the 00z European model (ecmwf) being a slow 
outlier. Went with model consensus which brings a chance of 
showers to the region by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the front 
which is forecast to cross the area on Tuesday night. By Wednesday 
night the 00z European model (ecmwf) comes in line with the other models. There 
will be a further chance of showers as a secondary cold front 
approaches and then moves through the region on Thanksgiving. Post 
frontal showers may linger into Thursday night in cold cyclonic 
flow. Late Thursday into Thursday night there may be enough cold 
air for some snow showers. Low level ridge builds in on Friday 
bringing a drier but cool day. 


&& 


Aviation /18z Saturday through Thursday/... 
very light east winds will be found over the region today as high 
pressure settles in Ohio. A few fair weather cumulus will pop from 
2500'-3500' today and quickly die later this afternoon. Another 
round of MVFR visibilities is expected overnight...although it will 
neither be as widespread nor as long in duration as it was earlier 
this morning. Atmosphere is drying under the easterly winds. Cirrus 
may spill into SW County Warning Area tomorrow...but even this is in question. It 
may hang on the horizon and never make it to the Airport as upper 
flow is still pulling in drier air on northwest winds. 


Outlook...MVFR ceilings possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. 


&& 


Iln watches/warnings/advisories... 
Ohio...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
In...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis... 
near term...franks 
short term... 
long term... 
aviation...franks