511 
fxus61 kbgm 211823 
afdbgm 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York 
223 PM EDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will keep the weather dry and warm into the weekend 
with temperatures expected in the 80s during the afternoon. A cold 
front will push toward the area on Sunday...bring the next chance 
of rain to the area late in the weekend. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
500 mb ridge over the area will keep the upper low west of the region 
through the period...while ts Fay remains sequestered down over Florida. 


Hipres dominates the area through tonight with clear skies and light 
winds leading to radnl cooling conds once again. Expect patchy 
dense fog to form once again in river valleys. 


Dewpoints are already into the middle-50s this afternoon and expect overnight 
mins to be warmer than last night with temperatures only dipping into the 
l50s. 


&& 


Short term /Friday through Sunday/... 
not much to speak of in the short term. Temperatures will continue to 
climb into the 80s each afternoon as srly flow brings in warm air. 500 mb 
ridge prognosticated to break down by Sun morning as 500 mb system dropping through 
British Columbia advances west through the weekend. 


NAM tends to want to hold onto ridge a little longer than do 
Euro/GFS. For now...have added chance probability of precipitation to New York counties after 12z sun with 
a gradual increases through the day across remainder of the County Warning Area. Interesting to 
note that although Euro has nearly the same placement as the GFS with the 
front bisecting County Warning Area by 00z Monday...it indicates more precipitation in weak 
of frontal passage. 


As is often the case...timing may be a tad too quick on knocking 
the ridge down and bringing front into the forecast area. Thus...may have to 
pull back on probability of precipitation with later runs. However will not split hairs at 
this point while it is still six periods away and carry chance probability of precipitation 
through most of Sunday. Time of day will likely play a role in the 
potential/strength of storms expected ahead of the front. 






&& 


Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/... 
followed the HPC forecasts with this update as the thinking is to lean 
with more of an ensemble blend of European model (ecmwf)/gefs means...esply after 
days 3-4. The main idea of this will be to continue a dry and 
seasonable pattern after a cold frontal passage with associated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain on 
Sunday night to early Monday. Medium range nwp continues to show strong 
and slow moving ridging over the northwest Atlantic and northeast Continental U.S.... 
which will envelop the remnants of ts Fay...keeping return tropical 
moisture at Bay well to our south. The operational GFS/European model (ecmwf) runs 
want to lift this feature out quicker than most of the consensus 
with showers returning to this region as early as possibly Wednesday and 
Thursday...while gefs light precipitation forecasts remain dry. It is rather 
difficult to maintain xntdd periods of dry weather in this area...so at 
this point we will at least hint of low chance potential for rain showers developing 
Thursday. 


&& 


Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/... 
high pressure slides slowly east of the area through Friday. VFR 
will dominate the flight conditions aside from the typical IFR developing 
along the river vicinity kelm. Things may be a bit different than last 
couple nights as blyr winds increase by sunrise Friday...allowing 
for a bit more mixyness. This may mean an early vlifr fog show at 
kelm...followed by some relief of the very low visibilities by 12z...but 
still expect low ceilings and slghtly higher 1-2 Michigan visibility until burn off. 
Kbgm experienced brief LIFR this morning as fog lifted out of the 
valley...and expect the same tomorrow. 


Outlook... 
Friday...localized LIFR early...then VFR. 
Sat...VFR. 
Sun-Sun night...VFR/MVFR. Scattered thunderstorms and rain. 
Monday...VFR. Isolated morning tsra/MVFR. 


&& 


Bgm watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...pvb 
near term...pvb 
short term...pvb 
long term...jab 
aviation...jab