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fxus61 kbtv 120233 
afdbtv 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont 
933 PM EST Thursday Mar 11 2010 


Synopsis... 
a ridge of high pressure will build back over the forecast area 
with fair weather expected for Friday. A storm system over the 
nations middle section will move east and bring a chance of rain and 
gusty winds to the north country...mainly for the second half of 
the weekend. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/... 
as of 933 PM EST Thursday...light rain showers that fell across 
south central Vermont earlier this afternoon have moved east of 
the region at this time. Expecting mostly cloudy skies across the 
region overnight as an upper ridge builds across the region. Given 
cloud cover expected overnight...and looking at latest GFS lamp 
guidance will raise min temperatures a degree or two overnight in 
most locations. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Friday morning through Saturday night/... 
as of 318 PM EST Thursday...a fairly quiet end to the work week 
with a ridge of high pressure building back over the north 
country. With partly cloudy skies and 850 temperatures around 3c we 
should again see temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s. High clouds 
will begin to move into the area toward afternoon...especially in 
the south...as a large scale system currently in the nations middle 
section moves toward the northeast. High pressure...however...will 
hang tough over Maine and the Canadian Maritimes...with a large 
negatively tilted upper level ridge right over New England. This 
will inhibit forward progression of this system into our area. It 
will be Saturday before we see any potential for organized 
precipitation in the area...and this will begin from the 
southwest...and eventually spread through most of the region 
by Sunday morning. 


Precipitation Saturday night...with the upper level ridge 
maintaining over the Canadian Maritimes back into Quebec... it 
will deflect the bulk of the dynamics and precipitation to our south and 
the toward the coastal areas. This system is tapping into 
middle-Atlantic and Caribbean moisture. So...while the bulls-eye will be 
well to our south...we could still be in for a quarter to an inch 
of precipitation Saturday night...especially late. Greatest 
amounts look to fall in Windsor and eastern Rutland counties...and 
also possibly western Orange County of Vermont...as the best dynamics 
are south...and as this area will be aided by southeast upslope 
flow in the Green Mountains. One item to mention will be the 
potential for a brief and narrow band of light freezing 
precipitation possible in pockets at around the 1500 to 2k feet 
elevation...as soundings indicate a shallow layer of freezing 
temperatures here. But...this will be brief and very localized at best 
before an increase in winds scour out this shallow layer. 


Wind Saturday night...accompanying this system will be a fairly tight 
pressure gradient and southeast winds as a Carolina coastal low 
develops and tucks into the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia. We will be watching this 
for the potential of strong winds for the western slopes of The 
Greens...especially in south and central Vermont. Current thinking is 
that this will be a widespread gusty night...with potentially 
advisory level wind gusts along the western slopes and Rutland 
County Sat. Night. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Thursday/... 
as of 354 PM EST Thursday...Sunday the low pressure system will move 
east from the coast of Long Island off the coast of Cape Cod. 
During this time the pressure gradient will weaken...but expect the 
heaviest rain during the day Sunday. Still looks like heaviest rain 
will affect southern Vermont...and have mentioned chance probability of precipitation 
elsewhere. Still some uncertainty with respect to northern edge of 
precipitation and area with highest quantitative precipitation forecast. Models continue to 
indicate that the heaviest quantitative precipitation forecast will remain south of our forecast 
area. It is difficult to determine northern edge of precipitation 
shield with such a large closed low system...and lack of model 
consistency. Upper level ridge will slowly slide south...ridging 
into the region Sunday night into Monday as low pressure system 
moves out to sea. Have gone warmer than guidance for Sunday and 
Monday maximum temperatures as warm southeast flow will be in place across the 
region. Have also gone warmer than guidance for min temperatures as cloud 
cover will keep temperatures from dropping too drastically. Weather 
becomes rather mundane from Monday through Thursday with no 
significant weather expected. The only feature Worth mentioning 
beyond Sunday night is a weak back door cold front to drop south 
across our area on Tuesday. A small ribbon of enhanced middle layer 
moisture and some weak vorticity...so have mentioned slight chance 
probability of precipitation. Temperatures will continue to be a bit above normal through 
the extended. 


&& 


Aviation /03z Friday through Tuesday/... 
through 00z Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail over the next 
24 hours as a weak warm front moves away and an upper level ridge 
becomes dominant across the region. Southeast winds continue...except NE 
over northern New York...will ease this evening...becmg variable at 
some locations. Winds then pick up again late morning with a 
general southeasterly direction...NE at kmss...very similar to Thursday. 


Outlook 00z Saturday through Tuesday...the upper level ridge will 
begin to weaken and move away Saturday as a large low pressure 
system develops over the eastern Continental U.S.. this will result in a 
sharp north to south gradient in clouds/precipitation across our taf 
sites this weekend. VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals 
through Sat...before some -ra arrive overnight and into Sunday with 
MVFR conditions possible...especially at southern locations of 
rut/mpv. East-southeast winds will back NE on Sunday and increase near 15kt 
before easing lt again Monday. No aviation impacts expected Monday - 
Tuesday. 


&& 


Btv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Vermont...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...amf 
near term...wgh 
short term...amf 
long term...neiles 
aviation...neiles/NH