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fxus61 kbtv 131350 
afdbtv 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont 
950 am EDT Monday Oct 13 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will continue to be the main weather feature over 
the region through Tuesday...before a weak frontal system moves 
across the area and brings a slight chance of showers Tuesday 
night into Wednesday morning. High pressure returns for 
midweek...followed by another weak system towards the end of the 
week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
as of 950 am EDT Monday...will be issuing an update this morning 
to adjust precipitation wording. Some breaks across the region this 
morning as frontal cloud cover continues to push through the area. This 
will affect temperatures a bit...but last few observation are showing slow increase 
and with some breaks expected during the day...feel we should be 
close to forecasted highs...so will leave those as is. Will also 
mention a sl chance for sprinkles over hir elev. 




Previous discussion...surface high pressure continues to 
ridge over the area today...with upper level ridge aloft as well. 
850 temperatures will continue to warm today...to about 10 degrees c by 
this afternoon. More clouds over the area today then the past few 
days...but temperatures will still be about 10 degrees warmer than 
normal for this time of year. Maximum temperatures will range from 
the lower 60s in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont to upper 60s in 
the Champlain Valley...middle 60s in the Adirondacks and around 70 
in the Saint Lawrence valley. Have included a slight chance for 
showers this morning in the Northeast Kingdom as moisture rides 
over top of ridge and shortwave drops across eastern Maine. Winds 
will pick up this afternoon a bit...blowing out of the north in 
the Champlain Valley and out of the west across northern New 
York. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday/... 
as of 310 am EDT Monday...overnight 850 temperatures will continue to 
warm to around 12 degrees c. Surface high pressure will begin to 
slide south and off the coast of New England. Upper level ridge 
will begin to break down and upper level ridge slides east from 
the Great Lakes region. Temperatures overnight will be very mild 
again...clouds will help to insulate the region. Low temperatures 
will be at least 10 degrees above normal. Min temperatures will 
range from the lower 40s over the Adirondacks and Northeast 
Kingdom to around 50 in the Champlain and Saint Lawrence valleys. 
On Tuesday a cold front approaches from the west as surface low 
lifts northeast into northern Canada. Upper level trough follows 
the cold front east. Very little moisture associated with this 
system...so have limited probability of precipitation to just a slight chance starting 
Tuesday afternoon and then overnight Tuesday into Wednesday 
morning. Tuesday will also have temperatures well above 
normal...with 850 temperatures warming to almost 14 degrees c maximum temperatures 
will range from middle to upper 60s across the higher elevations to 
lower 70s in the valleys. The best dynamics will be well to the 
north...closer to the center of the low pressure system. There 
may be some wind gusts around 20 to 25 miles per hour during the afternoon 
Tuesday as pressure gradient increases with cold frontal passage. On 
Wednesday weak surface high pressure will again build across the 
region...with progressive zonal flow aloft setting up. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... 
as of 345 am EDT Monday...on Wednesday night a shortwave will 
approach from the west. Have included chance for -rw as shortwave 
traverses our County Warning Area...although quantitative precipitation forecast will be light. Embedded 
shortwaves crossing the area in progressive zonal upper level 
flow will continue to bring a slight chance of showers through 
most of the extended period...although best chance looks to be 
Thursday with most aggressive shortwave and associated surface 
trough. Surface high pressure will build into the region from 
Friday through Sunday. Region will be under a colder air mass for 
the weekend...with 850 temperatures dipping to negative 8 degrees 
c...high temperatures may not get out of the 40s on Saturday and 
just slightly warmer on Sunday. 


&& 


Aviation /14z Monday through Friday/... 
through 12z Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected through the 
period but with widespread middle-level cloudiness. Clouds will be 
moving in band of moderately strong northwesterly flow on northestern periphery 
of upper ridge axis across the forecast area through the daylight 
hours today. Winds will generally be light at 6 kts or less. There 
is a slight chance for a shower across northestern Vermont this morning... 
but do not foresee any precipitation at the taf locations through 
12z Tuesday. Ceilings will generally be 5-7 kft during the day. For 
tonight...gradient flow switches light into the south and 
southwest. Expect patchy fog development 07-12z time frame at mpv 
and slk. 


12z Tuesday through Friday...a weak cold front moving from west 
to east across the north country Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday 
night will bring a slight chance of rain showers and a period of 
MVFR ceilings. Surface winds may be gusty Tuesday afternoon from the S 
and SW at 20-25 kts in advance of approaching cold front. 
Otherwise...looking for VFR conditions until the next shortwave 
trough moves across the region during the daylight hours Thursday 
with chance -shra. 


Notice to users of terminal Aerodrome forecasts (taf)...beginning 
at 0000 UTC on November 5...2008...the format for tafs will 
change. The National Weather Service will begin to issue tafs 
using a valid date and time group in the forecast. All 
meteorological agencies worldwide will also issue their taf 
forecasts in this new format. This is being done to accommodate 
30 hour taf forecasts that will be done for select major 
international airports worldwide. There will be 32 major U.S. 
International airports for which tafs forecasts will be valid for 
30 hours. This format change is being mandated by the 
international civil aviation organization (icao). The 6 taf 
forecasts being done by the National Weather Service in 
Burlington will continue to be valid for 24 hours. To see 
examples of this new format...please go to the internet web site 
listed below. 


Www.Aviationweather.Gov/notice/taf30.Php (all lower case) 


&& 


Btv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Vermont...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...jn 
near term...jn/neiles 
short term...neiles 
long term...neiles 
aviation...banacos 

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