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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Buffalo New York 
140 am EDT Friday Jul 4 2008 


Synopsis... 
a cold front that produced a wide swath of rain across the area 
earlier Thursday will continue to push southeastward and stall 
out well to our south. High pressure following the front will 
build eastward across the area and provide fine Holiday weekend 
weather. 


&& 


Near term /through today/... 
cirrus has exited the area. The only concern for the overnight 
period is for potential fog development. Visibility has dropped 
occasionally below 1 mile at both Wellsville and Watertown, and we 
expect fog coverage to increase as the night progresses. This is 
most likely across southern tier where clearing did not occur until 
around sunset and ground remains moist from earlier rain during 
the day. Further north the fog potential is more problematic... 
especially around niag Frontier where we had a dry afternoon and a 
sunny late day. Drier air also continues to advect south from 
Ontario with dew points in 40s at yyz and low 50s buf/roc. Will 
maintain fog in the grids but it looks only patchy as nights are 
quite short now. 


Any lingering fog should then dissipate fairly quickly Friday 
morning with the onset of diurnal heating/mixing...allowing more a 
mostly sunny and pleasant start to the long Holiday weekend. Light 
winds and 850 mb temperatures of +9 to +12c will result in comfortable 
conditions for outdoor activities...with surface readings climbing 
into the middle 70s across the bulk of the area. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through Sunday/... 
this period will be fairly straight forward as high pressure 
centered over the lower lakes region remains in control for the vast 
majority of our County Warning Area. The only fly in the ointment will be a stalled 
front to our south. The GFS is bringing higher probability of precipitation to the area 
Friday night...as high as likely...for the southern tier. This 
appears to be based on convective feedback and a bogus vorticity maximum 
which will be discounted at this time. The WRF-nmm and the sref 
output looks much more realistic. We will go no higher than slight 
chance probability of precipitation for the southern tier for that period. 


For Saturday through Sunday...fair weather is expected to be the 
rule as well...although there is still some doubt across the 
southern tier where the old stalled frontal boundary may serve as a 
focus point for convection...especially Sunday when the dew points 
rise into the 60s. 


Temperatures will warm during the period with highs in the 80s for 
most areas by Sunday. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/... 
by Monday..with dew points in the 60s and surface temperatures 
continuing to warm coupled with a zonal flow aloft with weak short 
waves forecast to move through...we will have to carry chance probability of precipitation. 
It will be a very warm day with rather uncomfortable humidity. 


We will continue chance probability of precipitation for the Monday night through Tuesday 
night period as a strong short wave passes just to our north. 


We will keep Wednesday and Thursday dry at this time on the back 
side of tuesdays system although confidence for this time period is 
not high. Temperatures will cool down slightly but still near or 
slightly above the seasonal norms. 


&& 


Aviation /06z Friday through Tuesday/... 
fog has lowered visibility below 1 mile at Watertown, otherwise all 
taf sites VFR at 05z. We do need to be on the lookout for patchy 
fog late tonight...even at the major terminals. Included a tempo 
MVFR group for several hours after about 07z at all sites but this 
could go down briefly to LIFR as well. Kjhw is more likely to drop 
to LIFR near dawn. All sites will improve to VFR by 12-13z on 
Friday. 


Outlook... 
Friday night...Saturday and Sunday...VFR. 
Monday and Tuesday...possible MVFR with showers and 
thunderstorms. 


&& 


Marine... 
the cold front has moved southeast of the lower lakes region. 
Northerly winds will continue to subside in the wake of the front 
as high pressure builds into the region. No more headlines will be 
necessary through the Holiday weekend. 


&& 


Buf watches/warnings/advisories... 
New York...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...Sage 
near term...apb/jjr/sfm 
short term...Sage 
long term...Sage 
aviation...apb/sfm 
marine...Sage