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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York 
913 am EDT Monday Oct 13 2008 


Synopsis... 
Indian Summer weather...with rain-free conditions and above normal 
temperatures...will continue through Tuesday. Our next threat of 
showers will come during the middle of the week...when a couple of 
cold fronts approach the region. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
updated at 905 am...dense cirrus overcast across eastern sections this morning...with 
broken conditions across the western sections. Perusal of Sat and short range 
guidance suggests little change in this pattern through the afternoon. Forecast of 
"considerable high clds" across the east...and "partly sunny" 
west...looks good. As for maxes...met looks much too warm with 
blended mav/FWC looking better...especially since temperatures will be 
tempered a bit by the cloud cover. Current forecast in good shape with just 
some minor tweeks to 1st period grids. Previous below... 






Once any valley fog Burns off this morning...look for another warm 
dry day. Satellite imagery does show some higher-level clouds over 
the area this morning...and we could see additional cirrus clouds 
today. However...this will do little more than filter the sun at 
times. Maximum temperatures are expected to climb well into the 
70s this afternoon...and could make a run at 80 in some of the 
normally warmer urbanized valleys. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday night/... 
tonight and much of Tuesday still look rain-free...with high 
pressure slowly moving off the East Coast. Despite an expected 
increase in cloud cover Tuesday afternoon...highs in the 70s are 
foreseen. 


A weak frontal boundary is prognosticated to cross the area Tuesday 
night. Although widely scattered showers may accompany this 
feature...much of the area should remain dry. 


Another progressive...somewhat stronger cold front...is expected 
to reach New York and PA by later Wednesday or Wednesday night. A few 
showers may also arrive with this frontal system. 


Overall...though...any rainfall we receive this period should be 
light...with temperatures on the mild side for mid-October. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday through Sunday/... 
Euro and GFS are in basic agreement for the potential of light 
showers for the beginning of the weekend, as a ul trough rotates 
through the region. Euro is faster and more progressive with this 
feature, leading to a fair weather Sunday. 


Will add in at least a slight chance for showers for the beginning 
of next weekend. 


&& 


Aviation /13z Monday through Friday/... 
VFR conditions are forecast this period. West to northwest winds of 7 to 10 
knots starting 14 to 15z, with a broken cirrus shield. Winds back 
to light to calm this evening for the night. 




Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... 


Tuesday...VFR...except for the possibility of IFR/LIFR fog at 
kelm during morning. 


Wednesday/Thursday...restrictions possible with any shower 
development. No widespread rain. 


Friday...mainly VFR. 


&& 


Bgm watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...mlj 
near term...mlj 
short term...mlj 
long term...djp 
aviation...djp/tac