101 
fxus61 kaly 111057 
afdaly 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York 
657 am EDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Synopsis... 
large area of high pressure will remain in control of our weather 
through the weekend. This will provide pleasant warm afternoon 
temperatures and cool nights. A cold front will approach from the 
northeast early next week with more significant frontal passage 
expected by Wednesday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
big bubble no trouble...surface and aloft. Outside of some ground 
fog in valley locations and near bodies of water...plenty of 
sunshine with temperatures making an attempt to around 70 in the 
valley with 60s elsewhere. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday night/... 
the big bubble no trouble will begin to lose its influence across 
the region through the short term. Upper flow becomes more 
confluent across central Ontario on Sunday with short wave axis 
diving southeast across New England Sunday night. So this will 
assist with knocking down the ridge with some increase in cloud 
cover across the southern greens and middle-upper Hudson Valley 
region overnight. 


Temperatures through the weekend will average above 
normal...period of Indian Summer. 


&& 


Long term /Monday through Friday/... 
generally went with gmos...except lingered precipitation longer into 
Wednesday night and Thursday especially across southern portion of 
forecast area where cold front may stall just south of forecast area based on European model (ecmwf). 


Monday and Monday night look dry as moisture associated with back door 
front passes north and east of forecast area. Thus dry and mild weather 
expected to continue until arrival of next front during middle week 
period. Monday looks to be very mild across southeast portion of 
forecast area...but cooler conditions expected across northeast zones which 
will be closer to back door front. Temperatures will gradually start 
to fall through middle week period with leading edge of precipitation arriving 
late Tuesday night or Wednesday. GFS much more progressive than European model (ecmwf) 
which develops a wave on the front in Delaware-Maryland-Virginia vicinity Thursday 
morning. Will at this point include chance probability of precipitation through Thursday 
across southeast portion of forecast area and then dry things out as high 
pressure briefly builds in before next short wave impacts forecast area late 
Friday or Friday night. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
mainly VFR conditions expected through 12z Sunday exception will 
be fog this morning at kgfl with MVFR conditions remaining until 
13z and again late this evening with MVFR/IFR conditions at kgfl 
and MVFR conditions late tonight at kalb. Skies will be sky clear with 
light and variable winds through the period as high pressure 
continues to build across the region. 


Outlook... 
sun...MVFR/IFR am fog all...otherwise VFR. 
Mon-Tue...VFR...no weather. 
Tuesday nght-Wed...VFR...chc MVFR rain showers. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
high pressure will dominate through the weekend as winds will be 
light and variable. Minimum relative humidities will average 
between 35 and 50 percent with nighttime values climbing to above 
90 percent. Next chance for rain arrives on Tuesday night. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
no hydrological problems are foreseen the next 5 days. Rivers 
and streams are at normal to below normal levels for October. The 
next chance of showers is not until Tuesday night and rainfall 
amounts are expected to be light...under a quarter of an inch. 


&& 


Aly watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
New York...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
Vermont...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...bgm 
near term...bgm 
short term...bgm 
long term...11 
aviation...11 
fire weather...bgm 
hydrology...11